Environmental tax policy in a model of growth cycles

Summary. The purpose of this paper is to consider environmental taxation which would control emissions of firms in a model of growth cycles. In the model presented below, the economy may experience two phases of growth and environmental quality: “the no-innovation growth regime” and “the innovation-led growth regime”. Aggregate capital and environmental quality remain constant in the no-innovation growth regime, while they perpetually increase in the innovation-led growth regime. The paper shows that the tax plays a key role in determining whether the economy stably converges to one of the two regimes or fluctuates permanently between them. It also shows that there is a critical level of the tax and that the economy obtains higher growth rates of capital and environmental quality by raising (or reducing) the tax if the initial tax is below (or above) the critical level. Received: April 2, 2001; revised version: March 21, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" This research reported here was conducted within the research project “Project on Intergenerational Equity” at Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. I am deeply grateful to an anonymous referee for his or her insightful comments, which greatly improved the paper. I also thank Hiroshi Honda, Yasuo Maeda, Yuji Nakayama, and participants in workshops at Hitotsubashi University, Kyoto University, Nagoya University, Osaka University, University of Tsukuba, Yokohama National University, and University of Tokyo for their valuable comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are mine.     

Is Private R & D Spending Sensitive to Its Price? Empirical Evidence on Panel Data for Italy

In this paper empirical evidence is presented on theelasticity of private R & D spending on its price. Acensored panel-data regression model with random effectsis applied to a balanced panel of 726 Italian firms overthe 1992–1997 period. Implied estimates point out thatItalian firms' response to policy measures (including taxcredits), aimed at reducing the user cost of R & D capital,is likely to be substantial (1.50–1.77). Furthermore, wealso find that the elasticity of R & D spending is higherin recession (2.01) than in expansion (0.87).     

Asymmetric ACD models: Introducing price information in ACD models

This paper proposes an asymmetric autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, which extends the ACD model of Engle and Russell (1998). The asymmetry consists of letting the duration process depend on the state of the price process. If the price has increased, the parameters of the ACD model can differ from what they are if the price has decreased. The model is applied to the bid-ask quotes of two stocks traded on the NYSE and the evidence in favour of asymmetry is strong. Information effects (Easley and O'Hara 1992) are also empirically relevant. As the model is a transition model for the price process, it delivers `market forecasts' of where prices are heading. A trading strategy based on the model is implemented using tick-by-tick data.While remaining responsible for any error in this paper, the authors would like to thank R. Anderson, G. Le Fol, C. Gouriéroux, J. Jasiak, W. Pohlmeier, A. Roell, O. Scaillet, S. Wei and three anonymous referees for useful remarks and suggestions on previous versions. The authors would also like to thank A. Ruttiens from KBC-CBC for useful discussions on practical issues related to trading. Support of the European Commission Human Capital and Mobility Program through the network `Econometric inference using simulation methods' is gratefully acknowledged. This paper presents research results of the Belgian Program on Interuniversity Poles of Attraction initiated by the Belgian State, Prime Minister's Office, Science Policy Programming. The scientific responsibility is assumed by the authors.     

湖北省两大贫困区PPT战略模式比较

在湖北大别山区和大鄂西地区,是湖北省实施PPT战略的重点地区,但由于地区经济、交通状况、资源特性等原因,两地的PPT战略模式有所不同。大别山区应发展环城市旅游休闲度假模式,而大鄂西地区应以神农架自然保护区、武当山世界文化遗产为核心发展专项旅游精品模式。文章就这两个发展模式的基本要素进行了比较研究,并提出了各自的开发思路。     

国民经济增长中的出口信用联动机制定量研究

文章利用1978年至2004年的数据,采用三阶段最小二乘方法构建并拟合了包含6个子模块、25个方程和43个变量的"出口信用对国民经济贡献的联立方程模型"。利用联立方程模型进行仿真研究后的结果表明:我国出口信用对我国宏观经济具有较好的贡献度,具体而言,如果进出口银行贷款余额增加1亿元,将导致国内生产总值增长1.82亿元,税收总额增长0.48亿元,就业人数增加2190人。     

上市公司财务危机预警实证研究

从20世纪60年代起,国内外的学者对上市公司财务危机预警问题就进行了大量研究,从方法上看,主要有线性判别分析、多元线性回归分析和Logistic三种,大量的实践证明,运用Logistic模型判定上市公司财务危机预警的准确性相对较高。     

基于logistic回归的上市公司财务危机预警模型

国内外所有关于财务危机预警问题的研究,主要涉及到两个方面的问题：一是财务危机概念的界定;二是预测变量（判别指标）的选择和预警模型的建立（企业财务危机是一个连续的动态过程,并直接表现为绩效指标的恶化,因此,可通过一定的财务指标来构造企业的财务预警模型）。运用中国上市公司的财务指标数据及因子分析和Logistic回归等方法构建基于上市公司的财务危机预警的Logistic模型,经过检验,具有一定的实际应用价值。     

Modelling the spatiotemporal distribution of the incidence of resident foreign population

Many European countries have recently experienced a substantial increase in the proportion of immigrants in their populations. The incidence of resident foreigners calculated at a national level does not provide information on the local spatial and temporal distribution of the phenomenon. This information may be of crucial importance for planning local policies. In this article, we suggest a tool for practitioners to provide spatiotemporal maps representing the local distribution of the incidence of resident foreigners in the territory, and changes in spatial trends over time. We illustrate this with Italian data at a municipal level, for the period 2003–2008. To account for spatiotemporal interactions in the data, we propose using a generalized additive model incorporating a smoother of the time and space dimensions. Specifically, we set up a tensor product smoother combining a cubic regression spline basis for time and a soap film spline basis for space. This approach provides a consistent framework to produce spatiotemporal maps which could be effectively used by policy makers to decide the allocation of economic resources at a local level.     

农业补贴政策的有效性研究及其政策改革分析——基于顺序logistic模型的分析

本文通过对全国的农村地区做随机性的抽样调查,将所获得的样本数据作顺序logistic计童分析以验证农业补贴政策的有效性,得出如下的结论:虽然农业补贴提高了农户的生活水平,但农业物资价格的上涨和部门间的比较利益的存在,在一定程度上抑制了农业补贴的产出水平.最后就所得到的结论对农业补贴的补贴范围、补贴方式和补贴额度提出了相关的政策改革建议.     

A network approach to modeling the multi-echelon spare-part inventory system with backorders and interval-valued demand

A multi-echelon inventory system implies the existence of a hierarchy of stocking locations, and the dependence and interaction between them. We consider a multi-echelon, spare-part inventory management problem with outsourcing and backordering. The problem is characterized by deterministic repair time/cost, and supply and demand that lie within prescribed intervals and that vary over time. The objective is to minimize the total inventory and transportation costs. We develop a network model for problem analysis and present a network flow algorithm for solving the problem. We prove that the Wagner-Whitin property, known for the lot-sizing problem, can be extended to the spare-part inventory management problem under study.