辽宁省碳交易市场建设中的问题及建议

日本和欧美等发达国家已经建立了较为成熟的碳交易市场,并通过碳交易取得了显著的环境和经济效益。我国国内的碳交易市场机制十分落后,还没有一个成熟的国际碳交易市场。作为能源消耗大省,辽宁省的碳减排压力指数全国位列第六,辽宁省低碳经济建设任重道远,务实发展碳交易市场是发展低碳经济的首要任务。本文首先详细论述了辽宁省发展碳交易市场的重要意义,指出碳交易市场对辽宁经济建设、财政收入、环境改善及增强企业竞争力都具有较大的推动力。通过对辽宁省碳交易市场发展现状的分析,发现辽宁省碳交易市场建设中存在的问题主要集中在CDM项目、碳交易所建设及自愿减排市场上。根据辽宁省发展阶段的特点,提出了推进碳交易市场建设的相关建议。     

中国金融结构问题与M2/GDP偏高现象研究

上世纪90年代中期尤其是1997年之后,流动性过剩和资产价格剧烈波动成为中国经济运行中的典型现象,表现为货币供给量的变化和实体经济变量即产出和物价变化的脱节———M2/GDP偏高现象。根据宏观经济学的分析框架,货币总量与名义GDP之比作为衡量流动性过剩的尺度,反映了货币供求状态与实体宏观经济总量之间的关系。当流动性过剩成为持续现象时,说明相对于实体经济形成的总供给,货币市场持续出现超额供给,即货币市场提供的一部分货币资金没有流向实体经济,或投入到实体经济的货币资金没有形成真实的商品供给。由于现代货币制度下,货币供给量与金融体系提供的信贷规模和信贷资金流向紧密联系。因此考察流动性过剩现象应该更多关注金融结构,进而金融资源的配置方式和效率的变化。本文结合金融结构发展情况分析中国M2/GDP偏高现象,揭示金融结构发展中的问题并提出相应对策。     

低碳经济技术锁定突破研究

为全面提升我国的经济发展质量与生态环境质量,低碳经济势在必行。低碳经济的实现依赖于技术创新,只有以过硬的技术作保障,才能从源头制止更多污染物的产生,实现低碳发展。但是我国低碳经济存在着“技术锁定”现象,技术锁定使我国现代产业体系难以形成,消耗了大量的能源,造成了环境的严重污染。文章从我国低碳经济技术锁定的现象出发,分析了技术锁定的原因是由于产业结构不合理、技术研发能力薄弱、投资风险巨大、国际技术转移困难、低碳消费观念滞后等综合因素影响。文章提出了低碳技术锁定突破点是突破性创新和渐进性创新,并分析了与之对应的跨越型技术路径和顺轨型技术路径。文章还针对不同的路径,提出了发展我国低碳经济,实现技术跨越的对策。     

不确定性下的房地产价格波动与货币政策反应:一个文献综述

本文就货币政策如何应对房地产泡沫的研究文献进行述评。国内外学者在该领域的争论集中表现为间接反应观、事后反应观与直接干预观,已有文献对货币政策框架进行修正以应对房价异常波动,并且学者们就金融监管的作用已经达成理论共识。本文的主要结论是:政策环境中的不确定性是影响政策选择的决定性因素,在不确定性条件下,货币政策应该综合运用直接干预与间接反应方式应对房价泡沫;货币政策与金融审慎监管的协调配合有助于实现经济金融稳定的目标;运用房贷政策调控房价泡沫更具政策效力。目前,国内学者的理论研究基础还十分薄弱,缺乏结合中国经济转型背景下特定制度性因素的现实考察,另外,将研究视角拓展为开放经济条件是值得进一步研究的方向。     

日本的房地产税收制度与调控效应及其启示

本文回顾描述了日本土地财税制度的建立与调整过程,重点分析了20世纪80年代以来日本经济发展过程中土地税收政策的运用调整及其效应。在我国当前房地产市场发展面临诸多问题与争议的情况下,日本在房地产税收方面的历史经验与教训,对于我国改革完善房地产税收制度和运用税收政策调控房地产市场具有较好的借鉴意义。     

Real call options to enlarge foreign subsidiaries – The moderating effect of irreversibility on the influence of economic volatility and political instability on subsequent FDI

This paper develops a real option model to explain the decision of enlarging a new foreign subsidiary by subsequent investment. The model is tested on a panel of 1148 subsidiaries in 22 host countries. The findings complement the traditional process model of firm internationalization. Rather than abiding by an incremental pattern of investment, internationalizing firms seem to keep foreign investment strategies flexible and build up their subsidiaries contingent upon the interaction of economic volatility and irreversibility of investment. However, the moderating effect of irreversibility on the relationship between uncertainty and investment may not hold for downside risks such as political instability.     

基于Z-Score模型的我国房地产业上市公司财务风险的实证分析

在宏观经济紧缩和严厉调控政策的影响下,我国房地产企业已经出现了显著的财务风险。本文运用Z-Score财务风险预警模型,对在深市A股上市的61家房地产企业财务风险进行了实证研究,并在此基础上针对性地提出了房地产企业加强财务管理和风险防范的建议。     

Cost-effective compensation to avoid carbon emissions from forest loss: An approach to consider price-quantity effects and risk-aversion

Analyses were carried out on financial compensation to avoid loss of tropical forests and related carbon (C) emissions when marginal financial yield declined for land-use options with extended areas, and when a risk-averting perspective (modeled according to financial theory around the capital asset pricing model) is assumed. The approach in this study was to consider natural forest, forest plantation, pasture, and cropland simultaneously to investigate how an optimized land-use distribution may reduce the amount of compensation necessary to avoid C emissions from forest loss.The financial compensations derived were as high as US$ 176 per hectare per year when comparing natural forests only with the most profitable alternative (croplands). However, compensation decreased to US$ 124 for risk-neutral decision-makers, who would strive for optimized land-use allocation, and to only US$ 47 per hectare per year for risk-avoiders, who would look to maximize the reward-to-variability ratio. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the compensation under risk-aversion increased much less than under risk-ignoring when increased productivity of agricultural land-use or growing demand for agricultural products was simulated. It was concluded that considering appropriate diversification strategies and the well documented human behavior to avoid risks is an important step in developing cost-effective compensation policies.     

Forest management under fire risk when forest carbon sequestration has value

We develop a multiple forest use model to determine the optimal harvest date for a forest stand producing both timber and carbon benefits under a risk of fire. An empirical application is provided for a forest owner producing maritime pine in Southwest of France. Our results indicate that a higher risk of fire will decrease the optimal rotation period. On the contrary, higher carbon prices increase the optimal harvesting age. To investigate the contradictory effects of fire risk and carbon price on forest rotation, we identify the set of carbon prices and fire risks that lead to a given rotation age. We also show that forest owner's willingness to pay for a risk reduction can be substantial (37.33 euros by ha and by year to reduce the annual fire risk from 1.26% to 0.07%).     

中国能源消费、碳排放与工业经济增长——一个脱钩理论视角的实证分析

本文利用相对“脱钩”、“复钩”的理论与测度模型,对2000—2009年我国工业经济增长与能源消费和碳排放之间的脱钩关系进行研究。在此基础上,对脱钩评价模型进行扩展,构建了脱钩指数分解模型,对脱钩关系的影响因素作出了更为深入的分析,并指出未来工业脱钩发展措施的重点方向是在进一步提升能效技术的基础上,着力推进工业产业结构升级的步伐,提升新型低碳能源的结构比重,改善能源的生产和消费结构。