Regional UK house price co-movement

ABSTRACT

Cyclical synchronization of home prices has important implications for monetary (and other) policies. Regional house price divergence, even over a business cycle, can inhibit labour mobility and prevent workers from moving to where they could add most to their own wages and overall growth. We study house price co-movement across the different UK regions with a method, that, unlike previously employed techniques, allows for time-varying estimates. We find first, that the UK exhibits more home price divergence compared to previously reported results for the US. Second, regions near London exhibit the most co-movement, and those further from London the most divergence. Third, London itself is in the ‘middle of the pack’ in terms of synchronization compared to other regions. This may reflect London’s status as a ‘global city’ and being the destination for housing demand from sources abroad. Lastly, segmentation has clearly been increasing, rather than decreasing in recent years.     

理解中国的实际汇率:一价定律偏离还是相对价格变动?

本文利用1997年1月至2010年9月的数据对人民币实际汇率进行分解,发现可贸易品偏离一价定律因素可以解释实际汇率波动的60%—80%,而可贸易品与不可贸易品之间的相对价格波动只能解释实际汇率波动的20%—40%。这意味着研究人民币实际汇率需要更多地从可贸易产品出发,不应仅仅强调国内不可贸易品与可贸易品的相对价格变化。进一步的研究发现,可贸易品因素对于解释人民币实际汇率占主导的结论,与中国相对于其他国家的经济体发展阶段有关。但是,上述结论并不意味着传统的"巴拉萨-萨缪尔森"效应失灵。事实上,当在计量回归中控制可贸易品偏离一价定律因素以后,巴萨效应在中国显著成立。只不过,相对于可贸易品偏离一价定律因素,巴萨效应对实际汇率波动的影响是次要的。     

Do estate and gift taxes affect the timing of private transfers?

Proposals to alter the estate tax are contentious and have been considered largely in an empirical vacuum. This paper examines time series and cross-sectional variation to identify the effects of estate and gift taxation on the timing of private transfers. The analysis is based on data from the 1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, and 2001 Surveys of Consumer Finances. Legislative activity during this period reduced the tax disadvantage of bequests relative to gifts. Moreover, the magnitude of this reduction differed systematically across identifiable household categories. We find that households experiencing larger declines in the expected tax disadvantages of bequests reduced inter vivos transfers relative to households experiencing small declines in the tax disadvantages of bequests. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that the timing of transfers is responsive to applicable gift and estate tax rates. The results also provide evidence of a systematic bequest motive for high-wealth households.     

Geographically explicit global modeling of land-use change, carbon sequestration, and biomass supply

This study aims to determine whether carbon sequestration policies could present a significant contribution to the global portfolio of climate change mitigation options. The objective is to model the effects of policies designed to induce landowners to change land use and management patterns with a view to sequester carbon or to reduce deforestation. The approach uses the spatially explicit Dynamic Integrated Model of Forestry and Alternative Land Use (DIMA) to quantify the economic potential of global forests. The model chooses which of the land-use processes (afforestation, reforestation, deforestation, or conservation and management options) would be applied in a specific location, based on land prices, cost of forest production and harvesting, site productivity, population density, and estimates of economic growth. The approach is relevant in that it (1) couples a revised and updated version of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios with the dynamic development of climate policy implications through integration with the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE); (2) is spatially explicit on a 0.5° grid; and (3) is constrained by guaranteeing food security and land for urban development. As outputs, DIMA produces 100-year forecasts of land-use change, carbon sequestration, impacts of carbon incentives (e.g., avoided deforestation), biomass for bioenergy, and climate policy impacts. The modeling results indicate that carbon sequestration policies could contribute to a significant part of the global portfolio of efficient climate mitigation policies, dependent upon carbon prices.     

外商直接投资、实际汇率升值与政策选择——基于中国的经验研究

本文利用协整和误差修正模型研究了外商直接投资与人民币实际汇率之间的关系，并通过VAR模型分析了抑制人民币实际汇率升值的有关政策。主要发现在于：外商直接投资主要流入到贸易品部门，在短期不会对人民币实际汇率产生影响，而长期会导致实际汇率升值。短期内冲销干预是一个较好的抑制升值的政策，但长期该政策是无效的。从长期看，面对国外资本大量流入中国，放松资本流出、鼓励本国企业“走出去”是抵制升值的最有效政策。紧缩财政开支的政策也有抑制升值的功能，但与放松资本流出政策相比，其政策效果一般。     

Asian real interest rates, nonlinear dynamics, and international parity

This study tests for nonlinearities in the real interest differentials of four South East Asian economies with respect to Japan and the United States. The logistic and exponential smooth transition regression models are applied to monthly data over the sample period 1977M1–2000M3. There is evidence of nonlinearities in Asian real interest differentials where nonlinearities are often captured by the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model. The extent of nonlinearities varies across the sample with the Singapore–Japan and Thailand–Japan differentials exhibiting the sharpest transition from one regime to another. Large shocks to real interest parity (RIP) are more likely to lead to the reestablishment of parity at a faster rate than small shocks. Modeling the nonlinear stochastic dynamics of RIP can thus be useful for policymaking purposes in recovering information on monetary and financial crises.     

矿产资源勘探开发项目现代投资决策方法的比较研究

本文对目前流行的投资决策方法(实期权定价,决策树分析与蒙特卡罗模拟法)从项目投资决策的角度进行了比较分析,指出了其各自的优缺点及适用范围,并对最具前景的期权定价法进行了重点阐述。分析结果显示,尽管各种方法存在某些差异,但事实上可以认为是同一投资决策方法框架下应用的不同形式,在应用实期权模拟项目复杂性时需要适当简化问题。未来的研究应当考虑矿产资源勘探开发项目中技术参数不确定性对项目价值与投资决策的影响。     

“富人社区效应”还是巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应?——一个基于外生收入的实际汇率理论

作为对国际价格水平差异的标准解释,巴拉萨—萨缪尔森(BS)效应依赖于国内劳动力同质假设和跨部门工资套利行为。本文提出了一个与之相对的"富人社区效应",可以在一国劳动力异质的条件下解释为什么富国的非贸易品价格较高。其直观解释是,如果一个国家拥有一个"富有居民"群体(比如高生产率的贸易品部门劳动者,或者全球贸易资源的所有者),而这个群体通过国际市场获得的硬通货总收入相对于该国总人口而言较高的话,其需求将抬高该国非贸易品价格。本文进而指出,关于BS效应的实证文献所广泛采用的两种基本统计检验,实际上无法区分BS效应与富人社区效应,这就对该领域相当一部分实证文献的正确性提出了质疑。此外,富人社区效应也有别于林德效应。     

调整转型期的中国房地产业发展——论中国房地产业发展中的若干重要关系

中国房地产业十多年的高速发展在改善人居环境和促进经济发展方面做出了巨大贡献,但与此同时也积累了大量矛盾.如何化解这些矛盾是处于调整转型期的中国房地产业必须直面的难题,而"解题"的第一步是要深刻认识关系房地产业发展的八大关系:部门经济与国民经济的关系、市场化与住房保障的关系、过分依赖与适度发展的关系、居住功能与过度消费的关系、外资进入与产业过热的关系、市场供需与结构性失衡的关系、适度降温与适度规模的关系、市场规律与社会公平的关系.     

会计师事务所“低价揽客”的博弈分析

本文从博弈论的角度对会计师事务所的“低价揽客”行为进行分析,认为“低价揽客”使会计师事务所在审计定价方面陷入“囚徒困境”,进而加剧了事务所之间的恶性压价竞争,降低了审计质量,加大了审计风险,导致事务所的人才流失,影响会计师事务所的可持续发展,并进一步分析了“低价揽客”的成因和提出了相关建议。