Risk,uncertainty and the theory of planned behavior: A tourism example

The differential impacts risk and uncertainty have on travel decision-making were explored by examining the constructs' influence on the antecedents of intentions to visit Australia using the theory of planned behavior. Respondents were obtained from online consumer panels in South Korea, China and Japan. The South Korean and Chinese samples were general population samples, while the sample from Japan was an international travelers' sample. The extended model fitted the data well, explaining between 21 and 44 percent of the variance in intentions. Subjective norms and perceived behavioral control significantly impacted on intentions in all country samples, whereas attitudes toward visiting Australia were only significant in Japan. Subjective norms influenced attitudes and perceived behavioral control in all country samples. Finally, perceived risk influenced attitudes toward visiting Australia in South Korea and Japan, while perceived uncertainty influenced attitudes toward visiting Australia in South Korea and China and perceived behavioral control in China and Japan.     

Modelling international tourism and country risk spillovers for Cyprus and Malta

Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs) are developing sovereign countries that rely on tourism as a source of exports, and need a consistent inflow of foreign investment in order to facilitate economic growth. Access to international capital markets helps SITEs smooth out their consumption over time, while absorbing adverse domestic production shocks. This paper provides a comparison of tourism growth, country risk returns and their associated volatilities (or uncertainty) for 2 SITEs, namely Cyprus and Malta. Monthly data are available for both international tourist arrivals and composite country risk ratings compiled by the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) for the period May 1986 to May 2002. The time-varying conditional variances of tourism growth and country risk returns for the 2 SITEs are analysed using multivariate models of conditional volatility. Empirical results show that Cyprus and Malta are complementary destinations for international tourists. Changes to tourism patterns in Cyprus lead to changes to tourism patterns in Malta. Hence, tour operators and national tourism promotion authorities in Cyprus and Malta should collaborate closely in marketing and promoting joint tourism products. Moreover, foreign entities interested in investing in the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta should consider investment projects that span a long period of time. The performance of the tourism sector and the associated composite risk are independent of each other for the two countries. However, there is a direct relationship between the tourism sectors of Cyprus and Malta and their respective country risk settings.     

信用风险测量指标体系研究

在现代商业银行经营中,信用风险是影响其安全高效运营的主要原因。信用风险管理中最重要的就是信用风险测量。自从20世纪80年代末期以来,人工智能技术如神经网络、专家系统也被应用于商业银行信用风险测量中。但预测指标的研究则相对滞后,成为研究的一个难点。     

Open economy and financial burden of corruption: theory and application to Asia

We discuss why corruption remains high and show that corruption contributes to the Banking distress and to the rapid transmission across international stock and currency markets. Undeveloped ‘derivative securities’ markets make the risk from stress-induced volatility difficult to manage. Vinod’s (1999) closed economy model is extended to indicate the asymmetry of ‘home bias’ and the effect of corruption on the value at risk (VaR). Our theory predicts that capital flight controls will be many, foreign direct investment (FDI) will be low and cost of capital will be high in corrupt developing countries, which is supported by Asian data. We include some policy recommendations regarding financial institutions and markets.     

煤炭企业内部控制实践与应用

随着企业的不断发展,跨地区、跨行业的产业范围和领域越来越广,管理层级逐渐延伸,强化内部控制、防范企业运营风险愈来愈迫切。焦煤集团在营造良性内部控制氛围、强化内部控制制度建设、注重监督考核执行等方面的具体实践,实现了堵塞漏洞,防范风险,有效应对当前严峻的经济形势的效果,确保了国有资本保值增值。     

上海自贸区离岸银行税收政策风险的法律控制

上海自贸区作为我国推进金融改革的新型发展模式,其离岸银行业务的税收政策在施行中可能会产生离岸银行业务优惠税制与我国现有税制的冲突、“税收洼地”导致“黑色经济”滋生、征管程序中出现“法律真空”地带等法律风险.而中国香港、新加坡离岸银行业务税收监管制度则体现出了低税负、高效征管的特点,有鉴于此,自贸区在对离岸银行进行税制创新时应当以税收政策的法定化、统一化为最终目标,协调境内关外离岸银行优惠税收制度与境内税制改革,建立离岸银行的国际化税收征管制度,以控制自贸区离岸银行业务税收政策的法律风险.     

羰基合成法制取高纯纳米氧化铁工艺研究

纳米氧化铁是近年来研发的新型纳米材料,它具有良好的光学、磁性、催化性能,在涂料、磁性材料、医学磁介质和催化等方面有广泛的应用前景,采用传统技术生产的纳米氧化铁因其粒度分布宽,纯度低等问题无法用于生物医药等高端领域,本文通过实验的方法介绍了一种新型高纯纳米氧化铁生产技术,可为高纯纳米氧化铁的研究和生产提供参考。     

创业企业贷款组合风险管理研究——基于不同生命阶段的视角

投资品种的多样化与分散化是金融风险管理的核心方法,它可以有效地防范和控制各类风险。对银行业来说,将贷款分散地投放给不同行业、不同区域或处于不同生命阶段的企业,可以减少其因借款企业违约而可能遭受的损失。因此,银行在贷款投放过程中,如何进行多样化和分散化,以达到整个贷款组合收益的最大化和风险的最小化是一个决策难题。本文通过对贷款组合风险和预期收益的度量,提出针对不同生命阶段创业企业的贷款组合优化模型,并进行了相关实证研究,研究结果表明模型具有较强的适用性。     

The Risk Microstructure of Corporate Bonds: A Case Study from the German Corporate Bond Market

This article presents joint econometric analysis of interest rate risk, issuer‐specific risk (credit risk) and bond‐specific risk (liquidity risk) in a reduced‐form framework. We estimate issuer‐specific and bond‐specific risk from corporate bond data in the German market. We find that bond‐specific risk plays a crucial role in the pricing of corporate bonds. We observe substantial differences between different bonds with respect to the relative influence of issuer‐specific vs. bond‐specific spread on the level and the volatility of the total spread. Issuer‐specific risk exhibits strong autocorrelation and a strong impact of weekday effects, the level of the risk‐free term structure and the debt to value ratio. Moreover, we can observe some impact of the stock market volatility, the respective stock's return and the distance to default. For the bond‐specific risk we find strong autocorrelation, some impact of the stock market index, the stock market volatility, weekday effects and monthly effects as well as a very weak impact of the risk‐free term structure and the specific stock's return. Altogether, the determinants of the spread components vary strongly between different bonds/issuers.     

美国保险公司破产研究及对我国的启示

保险公司的破产会给保单持有人、股东以及保险保障基金等造成很大的损失。鉴于国内相关案例和数据的缺乏,本文主要参考美国的文献和数据,分析了1978年～2009年美国保险公司破产案例,研究发现虽然保险公司破产的触发事件主要是损失准备金不足、非充分定价、公司业务的快速增长、子公司破产和投资失败等,但导致保险公司破产的根本原因却...