Pricing the risks of default

This paper decomposes default risk into timing and recovery risks. The two default components are explicitly priced as if they were traded in the futures market. We develop estimation strategies evaluating recovery risks and then construct implicit prices of contingent securities reflecting purely the timing risk. The models are estimated on monthly data for rates on certificates of deposit offered by institutions in the Savings and Loan Industry, during the 1987–1991 period. Empirical results support market expectations of lower likelihoods of default after 1989.     

我国银行计算机应用的安全隐患与对策

本文分析了我国银行计算机应用存在的主要安全问题,提出了在当前条件下,防范计算机风险的先进手段和措施。     

Re-examining online customer experience to include purchase frequency and perceived risk

This research examines the important emerging area of online customer experience (OCE) using data collected from an online survey of frequent and infrequent online shoppers. The study examines a model of antecedents for cognitive and affective experiential states and their influence on outcomes, such as online shopping satisfaction and repurchase intentions. The model also examines the relationships between perceived risk, trust, satisfaction and repurchase intentions. Theoretically, the study provides a broader understanding of OCE, through insights into two shopper segments identified as being important in e-retailing. For managers, the study highlights areas of OCE and their implications for ongoing management of the online channel.     

The impact of low-cost carriers on airport choice in the US: A case study of the Washington–Baltimore region

Previous research has shown that low-cost carriers (LCCs) may stimulate traffic at an airport by offering low fares. Using passenger survey data from the Washington–Baltimore region’s three airports, we find that the benefits of LCCs to airports extend beyond the traffic generated directly by the LCCs through their low fares. In addition, we find that the mere presence of an LCC at an airport can attract passengers, even to competing carriers. These “halo effects” from LCC presence increase the significance to airport managers of attracting LCCs in order to generate passenger demand.     

Accidental injuries among the elderly within the Vienna community: Epidemiology,risk factors and preventive measures

Abstract

Unintentional injuries ('accidents’) among elderly people are a significant burden in public health because such accidents happen frequently and because the proportion of older age groups in the population will continue to rise during the coming decades. One aim of this study, which was done in Vienna, the capital of Austria, was to broaden the preventive concept, adding lifestyle and living conditions to already well-known risk factors following the health promotion approach. Furthermore, characteristics that predispose older residents to accidents should be identified in order to design preventive measures for reducing injuries in this age group.

809 interviews with people 60 years of age and over were conducted, concerning accidents, outcomes of accidents, physical fitness, drug intake, type of house or dwelling, equipment in the household incorporating safety features, psychological well-being and social relations. The information collected was used to draw cross-sectional comparisons between participants who reported having experienced at least one accident in the previous 12 months and those who did not. Furthermore, the accident incidents were classified into 2 groups: incidents without injuries and injurious accidents. The latter served as a base for the epidemiology of injuries for people 60 years of age and over within the Vienna community.

20% of all senior citizens suffer at least one unintentional injury every year, in addition to which 8% experience critical incidents (mostly falls) without injury. Most accidents occur at home or involve pedestrians in public traffic areas. Over 90% of all accidents are falls, and 20% result in fractures. The most important risk factors for accidents in the elderly are gender, increasing age, poor physical fitness and low physical activity, the type of household and household equipment, poor psychological well-being, low income and loneliness.

The findings regarding falls suggest some possible opportunities for reducing the risk of falls by improving buildings and dwellings of the elderly. A promising attempt at practical implementation of these findings is being conducted by the Vienna-based Austrian Institute for Home and Leisure Safety in cooperation with the Vienna City Council. These two organizations are implementing a long-term program that aims at mobilizing institutions and organizations involved in working with the elderly.     

Risk reporting quality: implications of academic research for financial reporting policy

In this paper, I survey empirical research on the relevance of firms’ financial report information for the evaluation of their risk. I recommend that financial reporting policymakers require or encourage firms to enhance their risk reporting quality in four ways. First, firms should report comprehensive income statements that: (1) use fair value or a similarly information-rich accounting measurement attribute and (2) separate the components of comprehensive income that are primarily driven by variation in cash flows from those that are primarily driven by variation in costs of capital. Such comprehensive income statements would provide users of financial reports with the flexibility to calculate alternative summary accounting numbers and to perform different types of risk assessment analyses. Second, firms should conduct and disclose the results of back-tests of prior significant accrual estimates, indicating any identified trends in and drivers of revisions to those estimates, and describing the effects of those revisions on current or future summary accounting numbers. Third, firms should aggregate and present risk disclosures in tabular or other well-structured formats that promote the usability of the information. Identifying existing best disclosure practices and encouraging new best practices are the most natural way to do this. Fourth, for model-dependent risk disclosures, firms should disclose the primary historical and forward-looking attributes of the models and their implementation in practice, sensitivity of the model outputs, and benchmarking of the models to standard portfolios of exposures.     

非对称信息下第三方物流企业道德风险模型分析

本文基于信息经济学中的委托-代理理论,构建了第三方物流企业道德风险模型,定量分析了如何通过设立约束机制使货主利益得到有效保障,得出了有利于提高物流服务质量、水平的分析结论,最后提出了应在完善激励与监督机制、提高市场信息的透明度等方面,约束第三方物流企业败德行为的建议。     

金融资产规模、公允价值会计 与管理层过度自信

本文以2004-2009年持有证券资产的A股上市公司为样本，对金融资产规模的决定因素进行了理论和实证研究，得到以下研究结论：（1）公允价值会计是上市公司金融资产规模显著增加的解释因素；（2）管理层过度自信在成本计量模式下与金融资产规模只有弱相关性，但在公允价值会计下却与金融资产规模显著正相关；（3）受政府控制的公司、大股东持股比例高的公司在成本计量模式下有显著更低的金融资产规模，但在公允价值会计下，特别是当管理层过度自信时，金融资产规模却呈现为显著增加。上述结论解释了会计理念、管理层行为与金融风险的内在关联性：公允价值计量模式遵循的是价值相关性原则，要求把证券持有利得也计入资产价值和会计收益，这个未来价值理念激励了公司管理层和控股股东的金融投资行为。     

Risk management strategies - before Hominization and after

Selected examples, ranging from birds to pastoralistic nomads and subsisting peasants, indicate that the higher animals adopt foraging strategies similar to individual decision makers in economies without market (subsistence economies): in contrast to actors in (ideal neoclassical) market economies, maximizing expected utility, they operate in such way as to optimize long-term survival of genetically related groups. This can be seen as a strategy of (maximum) ruin avoidance, played by 'selfish genes'. In the sense of conjectural history the parallelism between risk behaviour of animals and early men may be regarded as the continued existence of principles of natural evolution beyond hominization up to the historical emergence of complex societies where pursuit of surplus production replaced ruin avoidance as the primary orientation in the older subsistence economies.