Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market

Using a broad data set of 20 US dollar exchange rates and order flow of institutional investors over 14 years, we construct a measure of global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Our FX liquidity measure may be seen as the analog of the well-known Pastor–Stambaugh liquidity measure for the US stock market. We show that this measure has reasonable properties, and that there is a strong common component in liquidity across currencies. Finally, we provide evidence that liquidity risk is priced in the cross-section of currency returns, and estimate the liquidity risk premium in the FX market around 4.7 percent per annum.     

A Case of Sticky Floors: Gender Wage Differentials in Thailand

Using 2004 Household Socio‐Economic Survey data for Thailand, we explore the gender wage differentials across the entire unconditional wage distribution and find a strong sticky floor effect. Glass ceilings, although observed along with sticky floors in the raw data and pooled regressions, disappear in the counterfactual decompositions, suggesting a strong sticky floor pattern in gender wage differentials in Thailand. Whereas the evidence for most European countries points to glass ceilings, our findings for Thailand are qualitatively similar to those from other South Asian and Southeast Asian countries for which evidence exists; namely, Singapore, the Philippines and Sri Lanka.     

Exchange market reform,inflation, and fiscal deficits

This paper examines the effects of exchange market reform on inflation and quasifiscal deficits in developing countries. The first part presents the conceptual framework, which identifies a variety of implicit taxes and subsidies that must be taken into account (in addition to implicit taxes on exports, as emphasized by Pinto (1991)) in assessing the fiscal and inflationary effects of exchange market reform. A formula that attempts to capture explicitly these taxes and subsidies is derived. The second part applies the formula to six countries (Guyana, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka). The results suggest that exchange market reform may lead to a significant reduction in reliance on the inflation tax.     

影响股票价格的两因素模型

我国股票价格的波动较发达国家成熟的金融市场来讲有很大的非理性成分,因而应从整体宏观实体经济发展和货币供应量两个因素来研究股票价格的波动.     

Is the dollar peg suitable for the largest economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council?

The slumping of the GCC currencies against other major currencies and the ensuing rising imported inflation have sparked an ongoing debate about the viability of the dollar peg. This paper extends and applies the contribution of Berger et al. (2001) to the largest economies of the GCC, namely Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, by introducing a foreign inflation dimension. Empirical estimations suggest little or no evidence supporting the suitability of a fixed exchange rate regime in any of the three analyzed economies. It is this paper's contention that policy makers ought to play an immediate and active role in identifying a suitable more flexible exchange rate regime as well as an achievable timeline and road map to effectively abandoning the dollar peg.     

Corporate tax cuts,merger activity,and shareholder wealth

We study the impact of the Domestic Production Activities Deduction (DPAD) on mergers and acquisitions. DPAD reduces corporate tax rates on income from work or goods made in the U.S. Results indicate that the quantity and quality of acquisition bids by DPAD-advantaged firms conform to the predictions of the neoclassical theory of the firm and the theory of financial constraints. Specifically, bids, particularly those cash-financed, increase substantially in industries with large DPAD-related tax cuts and for firms with financial constraints. Moreover, DPAD improves acquisition quality where acquirers and targets are likely to generate incremental DPAD tax benefits through their merger.     

Are more able managers good future tellers? Learning from Japan

Baik et al. (2011) find that high-ability managers in the U.S. are more likely to issue accurate management earnings forecasts. Focusing on Japan, where management earnings forecasts are effectively mandated, we extend the literature by exploring (1) whether the relationship between managerial ability and forecast accuracy is unique to the U.S. disclosure system, where management forecasts are voluntary, and (2) how high-ability managers increase their forecast accuracy. We find that managerial ability is negatively associated with forecast errors based on initial forecasts, suggesting that high-ability managers are more likely to issue accurate forecasts at the beginning of the fiscal year. We then show that high-ability managers are less likely to revise their initial earnings forecasts and less likely to use earnings management to improve the accuracy of their earnings forecasts. Our findings show that, while high-ability managers are more likely to issue accurate initial management forecasts, low-ability managers are more likely to revise their forecasts and conduct earnings management to reduce their forecast errors.     

基于管理者与股东冲突行为的并购价值悖论分析

2002年Cording提出并购价值悖论,引起了学界对此命题的关注与研究热潮。本文借鉴社会冲突理论,对并购交易过程中管理者与股东之间冲突行为进行理论建模,通过模型分析得出冲突行为如何影响并购价值创造的作用机制。结论如下：在公司并购过程中,管理者可能会选择冲突,也可能选择合作。这主要由并购规模、激励水平、社会保护力量和冲突技术水平等因素决定。一般地,并购规模越大,管理者更倾向选择冲突。此外,激励水平越高、社会保护力量越强和股东的冲突技术水平越高,管理者越倾向选择合作。并购交易中管理者与股东的冲突模型较好地解释了现实中为什么有些并购交易能够创造价值而有些并购交易却损毁公司价值,为解释并购价值悖论现象提供了一个新的视角。     

The Stock Market,Monetary Policy,and Economic Development

In this article, we examine the impact of financial market development on the level of economic development. In particular, we explore this issue in a setting where individuals face idiosyncratic risk. Incomplete information also provides a transaction role for money so that monetary policy can be studied. While an active banking sector promotes risk sharing, we incorporate a market for equity by allowing individuals to trade capital across generations. In this manner, each asset and financial market in our model fulfills a distinct economic function. Consistent with recent empirical work, we find that the impact of access to a stock market may be indeterminate—the economy may respond with significant gains in capital accumulation and risk sharing, or there may be relatively little impact. We also show that the effects of monetary policy vary across the level of financial development. In economies with small stock markets, increasing the amount of liquidity will cause capital accumulation to decline. By comparison, in advanced economies, capital accumulation improves.     

O.M.W. Sprague (the man who “wrote the book” on financial crises) and the founding of the Federal Reserve

O.M.W. Sprague was America's leading expert on financial crises when America was debating establishing the Federal Reserve. His History of Crises under the National Banking System is the most enduring intellectual legacy of the National Monetary Commission; a still frequently cited classic. Since the Commission recommended a central bank, and its recommendation after some modifications became the Federal Reserve System, it might be assumed that Sprague was a strong supporter of establishing a central bank. But he was not. Initially, Sprague favored far more limited reforms, a position that he did not abandon until the Federal Reserve became a fait accompli. Here I discuss the sources of Sprague's opposition to a central bank and the relationship of that opposition to his understanding of the history and structure of the American banking system at the turn of the nineteenth century.