农村金融发展与经济增长的关联性分析：以安徽省为例

本文基于帕加诺AK内生增长理论模型,利用安徽省1978-2009年的时间序列数据,通过建立VEC模型和脉冲响应函数对安徽省农村金融发展与经济增长之间的作用机理进行实证研究。研究表明,金融相关率（FIR）、农村资本边际生产率与农村经济增长呈现长期稳定的正向关系,而储蓄率与经济增长之间呈现反向关系;此外,变量之间短期动态关系与长期均衡关系并不完全一致。     

A marginal analysis guided technology evaluation and selection

Making decisions on strategic investments, such as early stage manufacturing technology (MT), is a complicated task. Early stage technologies are usually costly, and surrounded by uncertainty. The potential benefits are often hard to quantify prior to implementation. Thus, how could managers make good decisions in a high-risk, technically complex business when the information they need to make those decisions comes largely from the project champions who are competing against one another for resources? Traditionally, in this problem domain, decisions are made based upon gut-feeling and past experience, sometimes with the support of some multi-criteria decision-support tools. The criteria evaluation process is very subjective and relies heavily on managers’ experience, knowledge, as well as intuition. Thus, the evaluation approach is often not effectively carried out as there is lack of visibility and traceability in the decision making process. The impact of this scenario is that managers are not confident that resources are being optimised and applied to a mixed portfolio of projects to maximise benefits. This paper proposes a marginal analysis directed branch and bound approach for evaluating and selecting early stage manufacturing technology (MT) projects. A case study is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach. Implications of the proposed approach to practitioners and academia are discussed and future research outlined.     

河南省区域经济-物流弹性分析

本文选取河南省1990-2008年有关统计数据进行拟合分析,测算了河南省区域经济-物流弹性并预测了其变化趋势。结果表明河南省区域经济-物流弹性持续下降接近于1,区域经济增长速度快于区域物流增长速度;从边际效应和物流效率角度分析了河南省区域经济-物流弹性变化趋势,并提出了河南省物流业发展的建议。     

谁从增加的财政转移支付中受益——基于中国县级数据的实证分析

基本公共服务均等化要求财政转移支付应有效保障贫困地区提供大致均等化公共服务的财政能力。本文运用边际受益归宿分析技术,实证评估了2003—2007年中国县(市)一级财政转移支付资金的边际受益分配状况。研究结果显示:贫困县(市)从增加的一般转移支付补助中受益更高;对于调整工资补助和农村税费改革补助,富裕县(市)是新增财政转移支付资金的最大受益者;专项转移支付增量资金的受益分配也存在配置失效问题。基于实证分析结论,我们的政策建议是:提升一般性转移支付补助在财政转移支付资金中的占比;制定更加"亲穷"的一般性财力转移支付制度,增强其均等化功能;规范专项转移支付分配机制。     

Timing of Sale,Pricing, and Cost Information: Evidence from the Airline Industry*

This study examines the association between when an airline sells its passenger seats and the pricing method (marginal cost or full cost) it employs. Prior literature suggests that when firms are able to change prices during the selling period, the optimality of full cost pricing or marginal cost pricing depends on when demand information is revealed during the period between capacity commitment decisions and time of sale. Full cost‐based pricing is appropriate in determining capacity commitment and prices simultaneously, while marginal cost provides more relevant information for pricing when capacity has been committed. Using the price and cost data from a sample of four U.S. domestic airlines, we find that full cost explains price variations of first‐day sales robustly. The adjusted R² of the marginal cost pricing model is larger in the sample of sales two days prior to departure than in the sample of first‐day sales. In the analysis of the sample of sales two days prior to departure, we find that, based on the adjusted R² of the full cost pricing and marginal cost pricing models, the explanatory power of marginal cost pricing is relatively weaker than full cost pricing. Our results document the use of different cost information along the dynamic change of price and provide implications in understanding the role of cost information in setting prices.     

Financial development,portfolio investments and the real economy in Africa

According to the conservative view, capital flows enhance economic growth. Focussing on Africa’s real economy, this study investigates the linkage between portfolio investments and real sector growth, and whether financial sector development strengthens this association. The study covers 30 countries over the period 1990–2017. We adopt the Lewbel instrumental variable general method of moments (IV-GMM) two-step robust estimator, which relies on heteroscedasticity for identification, while dealing with instrument insufficiency, unavailability, endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We found that portfolio equity has no growth impact on Africa’s real sector. Debt flows deter the growth of the overall real sector as well as the manufacturing and industrial sectors, but have no impact on agriculture and service growth. We found that financial development does strengthen the positive association between capital flows and economic growth, but this is dependent on the type of sector and portfolio investment, as well as on the degree of financial development. We control for known determinants of economic growth.     

Financial risk taking in the presence of correlated non-financial background risk

This paper characterizes the stochastic deterioration resulting from taking a zero-mean financial risk in the presence of correlated non-financial background risk. We show in particular that it has an equivalent stochastic order as well as a necessary and sufficient “integral condition” that implies and is implied by a particular sense in which the stochastic deterioration can be decomposed into a “correlation increase” and a “marginal risk increase”. We further characterize a measure of aversion to the stochastic deterioration. These characterizations provide for a more general framework for formulating concepts of increases in risk and correlation and for better understanding risk management decisions governed by individuals’ attitudes to them.     

Home Equity,Household Savings and Consumption

The home-owning family’s equity is a piggybank that can be broken open by borrowing. Each borrowing increases liabilities and cash equally, initially leaving net wealth unchanged. When those funds are spent and cash balances fall, consumption increases even as net wealth can decline. In a dynamic optimization, the marginal propensity to consume from net wealth is not always positive and can be positively correlated with housing debt.

Production-based measures of risk for asset pricing

A stochastic discount factor for asset returns is recovered from equilibrium marginal rates of transformation inferred from producers’ first-order conditions. The marginal rate of transformation implies a novel macro-factor asset pricing model that does a reasonable job explaining the cross-sectional variation in average stock returns with plausible parameter values. Using a flexible representation of firms’ production technology, producers’ ability to transform output across states of nature is estimated to be high, in contrast with what is typically assumed in standard aggregate representations of firms’ production technology.     

商业银行引入战略投资者定价行为分析

本文主要分析了商业银行引入战略投资者时,战略投资者与商业银行对所参股的定价问题。通过分析,得出在不同边际成本条件下,商业银行股份的定价在边际成本不变条件下战略投资者所支付的价格高于城市商业银行股份的实际价值,该价格会落在一定的价格区间内,而在边际成本可变的条件下战略投资者和城市商业银行将会达成一个最优定价,当存在投资限制时战略投资者往往会选择投资至最高上限。