收入差异对总体消费的影响

本文以蒙特卡罗模拟为主要手段,辅以计量方法,研究不同程度的收入差异对总体消费的影响。最终得到以下结论：随着基尼系数从0增加到1,总体消费总体上呈递减的趋势,但递减的过程具有明显的非线性特征;当基尼系数从0增加到0.4之前,总体消费随之下降的幅度较小,且波动性很小;当基尼系数增至0.4后,随着基尼系数的增加,总体消费突然大幅下降,而且波动性也大幅增加。随着基尼系数接近1附近时,这种情况逐步减弱。     

信息披露质量与股权融资成本

本文以深圳证券市场A股上市公司为样本,研究中国上市公司的信息披露质量是否会对其股权融资成本产生影响。我们采用剩余收益模型计算上市公司的股权融资成本,分别以披露总体质量与盈余披露质量指标反映上市公司的信息披露质量。研究发现,在控制β系数、公司规模、账面市值比、杠杆率、资产周转率等因素的条件下,信息披露质量较高的样本公司边际股权融资成本较低,这说明我国上市公司的信息披露质量会对其股权融资成本产生积极影响。研究还发现,盈余平滑度和披露总体质量是影响样本公司股权融资成本的主要信息披露质量特征。最后基于上述发现提出了若干政策建议。     

Analysis of treatment response data without the joint distribution of potential outcomes

In this paper we show how it is possible to develop a Bayesian framework for analyzing structural models for treatment response data without the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. That this is possible has not been noticed in the literature. We also discuss the computation of the model marginal likelihood and present recipes for finding relevant treatment effects, averaged over both parameters and covariates. As compared to an approach in which the counterfactuals are part of the prior-posterior analysis (as in the work to date), the approach we suggest is simpler in terms of the required prior inputs, computational burden and extensibility to more complex settings.     

On the curvature of the reporting function from objective reality to subjective feelings

I suggest the idea of a reporting function, r(.), from reality to feelings. The ‘happiness’ literature claims we have demonstrated diminishing marginal utility of income. I show not, and that knowing r(.)'s curvature is crucial. A quasi-experiment on heights is studied.     

福利目标下中国所有制结构调整的路径选择

本文基于阿玛蒂亚·森建立的社会福利与收入分配差距和收入水平两因素间的关系式推导出中国所有制改革的边际社会福利公式,以从社会总体福利改进的视角研究中国所有制结构改革的路径选择。结果表明:国有经济相对规模的扩大导致社会福利的下降;不同时期国有经济的社会福利效应不同;在集体经济比重不变时,非公有经济与国有经济之间的结构变动带来社会福利的增长。随着整个改革的深入,非公有经济成分的边际福利上升;非公有经济比集体经济更能提高社会的福利水平。经过各种路径的福利比较得出:由公有向非公有的调整应是所有制改革的基本路径;国有经济和集体经济比重的缩减均具有合理性,在现阶段,由国有经济向非公有经济调整的改革选择优于由集体经济向非公有经济的选择。     

A regional agricultural efficiency convergence assessment in Romania – Appraising differences and understanding potentials

This study proposes an assessment of the regional agricultural efficiency convergence potential across the Romanian development regions during a period of sixteen years (from 2001 to 2017). Using the Cobb-Douglas function and the cluster analysis, it investigates the agricultural development and efficiency in the development regions of Romania, based on the available official datasets. The main aim of the research is to appraise the potential of these seven development regions (Bucharest – Ilfov Region was excluded), and to understand the differences between them, from the perspective of agriculture’ future, and the impact agriculture can have on the sustainable development of each region, through a new domestic agricultural paradigm. The results suggest that agriculture has a major impact on the development of a region as a whole, and that, in the absence of future reform measures in agriculture, the regions will be highly affected by their agricultural underperformance.     

Estimating the opportunity costs of reducing carbon dioxide emissions via avoided deforestation,using integrated assessment modelling

Estimates show that, in recent years, deforestation and forest degradation accounted for about 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs, although cost estimates show large uncertainty. Cost estimates can differ, as they depend on the approach chosen, for example: giving an economic stimulus to entire countries, taking landowners as actors in a REDD framework, or starting from protecting carbon-rich areas. This last approach was chosen for this analysis. Proper calculation of the economic cost requires an integrated modelling approach involving biophysical impact calculations and their associated economic effects. To date, only a few global modelling studies have applied such an approach. In modelling REDD measures, the actual implementation of REDD can take many forms, with implications for the results. This study assumes that non-Annex I countries will protect carbon-rich areas against deforestation, and therefore will refrain from using these areas as agricultural land. The opportunity costs of reducing deforestation within the framework of REDD were assessed using an integrated economic and land-use modelling approach comprising the global economic LEITAP model and the biophysical IMAGE model. One of the main methodological challenges is the representation of land use and the possibility to convert woodlands land into agricultural land. We endogenised the availability of agricultural land by introducing a flexible land supply curve, and represented the implementation of REDD policies as a reduction in the maximum amount of unmanaged land that potentially would be available for conversion to agriculture, in various regions in the world. In a series of model experiments, carbon-rich areas in non-Annex I countries were protected from deforestation. In each consecutive scenario the protected area was increased, starting off with the most carbon rich lands, worldwide systematically working down to areas with less carbon storage. The associated opportunity costs, expressed in terms of GDP reduction, were calculated with the economic LEITAP model. The resulting net reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from land-use change was calculated with the IMAGE model. From the sequence of experiments, marginal cost curves were constructed, relating carbon dioxide emission reductions to the opportunity costs. The results showed that globally a maximum of around 2.5 Gt carbon dioxide emissions could be avoided, annually. However, regional differences in opportunity costs are large and were found to range from about 0 to 3.2 USD per tonne carbon dioxide in Africa, 2 to 9 USD in South America and Central America, and 20 to 60 USD in Southeast Asia. These results are comparable to other studies that have calculated these costs, in terms of both opportunity costs and the regional distribution of emissions reduction.     

包世臣的边际土地利用技术思想

清代中后期，巨大的人口压力更明显成为土地利用范围扩展的直接社会经济动力。本文以此为背景，研究包世臣关于垦荒种稻、山地、涂田、圩田、河沿地、城镇荒场等边际土地利用技术思想。文章重点在他的山地综合开发利用技术思想方面：首先考察清代山地开垦的大体局势及后果，接着简要评价他的垦山基本态度，并指出其技术思想的现实针对性，着力分析他的开山技术经验，最后论其历史价值。结语部分讨论他的边际土地利用技术思想对于现代农业可持续发展的启示。     

政绩诉求、政府控制与边际社会性支出——基于地方国有上市公司的研究

本文实证检验了政绩诉求——政府控制——边际社会性支出这样一条政府干预国有企业所产生经济后果的传导机制。研究发现:当地方政府在面临财政收入不足、国有经济面临的就业压力更大和经济增长缓慢时,地方政府往往会加大对国有企业的控制程度。尤其在面临就业压力时,会倾向于加强对员工规模大的企业的控制。随着地方政府对国有企业控制程度的加强,会导致国有企业发生更多的边际社会性支出,如非效率投资和冗员等。     

服务贸易与货物贸易对我国收入差距扩大的影响及比较

改革开放30多年来,伴随对外贸易的迅速发展,我国收入差距尤其是城乡居民收入差距不断扩大。本文利用我国1982-2011年的年度数据、引入多个控制变量的实证分析结果表明:货物贸易的发展会使收入差距先减少后扩大,而服务贸易的发展则使得收入差距先扩大后缩小,同时教育发展水平等因素也对城乡收入差距有显著影响。文章在对研究结论做出成因分析后,提出了部分有针对性的政策建议。