高技术产业国家价值链网络结构与省域增加值分解——来自电子信息产业的证据

为破解我国在高技术产业全球价值链中面临的低端锁定困境,需要构建并完善国家价值链分工体系。构建中国高技术产业国家价值链内生增值传导网络结构分析框架,并以电子信息产业为例,对省域国内增加值进行分解。结果表明,现阶段中国电子信息产业上游技术研发能力较弱,整体增值能力不强;下游间接关联产业部门数量及关联系数值仍待提高;除中游外,上下游出口国内增加值偏低,国际竞争力较弱;东、中部省域国内完全增加值占据优势,内生增值能力方面各有所长,东北、西部省域国内完全增加值及其内生增值能力均较弱。同时,中国省域国际垂直专业化程度未表现出显著地理地区特征,即使同一地域的省域之间也存在不同程度差异。     

电子信息产业国内价值链省域比较优势测度及空间差异研究

为应对后疫情时代全球电子信息产业加剧的“比较优势陷阱”,中国亟需通过国内价值链省域比较优势的互补协同提升整体国际竞争力。在价值链产品内,基于垂直专业化分工框架,兼顾增值能力与劳动生产率两个维度,使用非竞争型投入占用产出模型,设计一个评测国家内部区域电子信息产业真实比较优势的新指标。结果表明,东部沿海省域比较优势强度与广度最为显著,内陆省域比较优势集中于上游能源型部门;制造业部门比较优势凸显,服务业部门比较优势相对薄弱;比较优势高省域集中度与低省域集中度的产业部门中,均存在整体比较优势强弱差异,其中,高省域集中度产业部门比较优势强度更高。     

Leverage effect on stochastic volatility for option pricing in Hong Kong: A simulation and empirical study

This paper explores the importance of incorporating the financial leverage effect in the stochastic volatility models when pricing options. For the illustrative purpose, we first conduct the simulation experiment by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling method. We then make an empirical analysis by applying the volatility models to the real return data of the Hang Seng index during the period from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2017. Our results highlight the accuracy of the stochastic volatility models with leverage in option pricing when leverage is high. In addition, the leverage effect becomes more significant as the maturity of options increases. Moreover, leverage affects the pricing of in-the-money options more than that of at-the-money and out-of-money options. Our study is therefore useful for both asset pricing and portfolio investment in the Hong Kong market where volatility is an inherent nature of the economy.     

省域全要素生产率地区差异的动态演进

笔者在运用索洛余值法对我国各地区全要素生产率进行估算的基础上,利用非参数的核密度函数法和马尔可夫链法对全要素生产率地区差异的动态演进进行了分析。研究结果表明,我国各地区全要素生产率差异较大,从东部往西部呈现逐渐降低的梯度分布格局;各地区之间全要素生产率的绝对差距在20世纪80年代呈现缩小趋势,而从1990年以后呈现加速扩大趋势;同时,核密度函数分布呈现双峰收敛趋势,进一步表明全要素生产率两极分化现象严重;从马尔可夫链的稳态分布来看,各地区的全要素生产率将继续保持较大差异,短期内难以实现均衡发展。     

基于知识供应链提升企业知识管理结构化能力研究

在知识经济时代,知识成为企业可持续发展的基础,知识管理成为企业占领市场制高点的核心能力。引入知识供应链的相应理论,将企业的知识供需置于整个知识供应链之中,通过确定企业知识管理的知识缺口,从整体到局部、宏观到微观、战略到战术不同层面来培养和发展企业知识管理的结构化能力。     

基于TRIZ的知识链组织间的冲突解决案例分析

结合知识链组织间的冲突案例,分析了如何使用IFR以及IFR往回走一步来定义知识链组织间的冲突问题,找到问题的根源;运用IFR参数模型,确定了技术矛盾参数和物理矛盾参数,通过将技术矛盾参数转化为标准参数,用矛盾矩阵和分离原理找到了解决方案。     

A Markov‐switching analysis of Nigeria's business cycles: Are election cycles important?

The study examines Nigeria's business cycles between October 1998 and October 2017 and ascertains the importance of general elections cycles in engendering cyclical fluctuations in different measures of business cycles. A framework based on political business cycles theory was estimated with a dynamic Markov‐switching regression technique. The study finds that election cycles are adequate in predicting cycles in food prices, non‐farm prices, exports, and imports in Nigeria while a significant effect of election cycles on the stock market, general price level, and exchange rate could not be established. The study concludes that cycles in food, non‐farm prices, imports, and exports can be predicted by future general elections while re‐election seeking behaviour of politicians lacks the power to influence stock market performance and exchange rate in Nigeria. Hence, artificial business cycles that result primarily from politicians manipulating certain fiscal tools targeted at stimulating the economy only to increase the re‐election chances could be minimized if monetary and fiscal institutions are strong, effective, and truly independent. This will ensure that policies are not manipulated between elections by politicians but are well targeted at achieving a set of long‐term developmental goals.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of utidelone plus capecitabine for metastatic breast cancer in China

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of utidelone plus capecitabine therapy compared to capecitabine alone in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) resistant to anthracyclines and taxanes treatment in the Chinese context and provide a reference for the marketing of utidelone in China.

Methods: A Markov model was developed based on the NCT02253459 clinical trial to simulate the clinical course of patients with metastatic breast cancer who had received taxanes and anthracycline therapy. The quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) were then analyzed to evaluate the benefits. Two-parametric Weibull distribution was conducted to fit PFS and OS curves by using R. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the stability of the model designed.

Results: The addition of utidelone increased the cost and QALYs by $13,370.25 and 0.1961, respectively, resulting in an increased ICER of $68,180.78 per QALY. The most sensitive influential parameter on ICER was the price of utidelone. At the threshold of willingness-to-pay (WTP) of $24,380 (3 per capita GDP of China), the cost of utidelone per 30?mg of less than $18.5, $33.7, and greater than $48.8 resulted in a 100%, 50%, and 0% possibility of cost-effectiveness, respectively. The addition of utidelone was not cost-effective when it was $115.4 per 30?mg—the price of its analog paclitaxel. In consideration of varied economics levels across China, cost-effectiveness could be achieved with the price of utidelone ranging from $5.2 to $35.9.

Limitations: The survival curves extended beyond the follow-up time horizon, of which data were generated not from the real analyses but from our established two-parameter Weibull survival model.

Conclusion: It is recommended that the price of utidelone would be less than $18.5 per 30?mg in order to obtain cost-effectiveness for metastatic breast cancer patients resistant to anthracyclines and taxanes treatment in China.     

Stochastic model specification search for Gaussian and partial non-Gaussian state space models

Model specification for state space models is a difficult task as one has to decide which components to include in the model and to specify whether these components are fixed or time-varying. To this aim a new model space MCMC method is developed in this paper. It is based on extending the Bayesian variable selection approach which is usually applied to variable selection in regression models to state space models. For non-Gaussian state space models stochastic model search MCMC makes use of auxiliary mixture sampling. We focus on structural time series models including seasonal components, trend or intervention. The method is applied to various well-known time series.     

旅游服务供应链中若干环节的协调

自20世纪90年代以来,有些学者已经认识到供应链思想应用于旅游业的重要作用,从不同角度对旅游业的发展应加强供应链建设进行了探讨,而目前我国对旅游服务供应链的研究尚处于初始阶段.对于旅游业而言,旅游产品综合性的特点决定了单个旅游企业不可能提供完全的产品,此种属性同时也决定了旅游服务供应链的存在和形成.旅游服务供应链一旦形成,就需要我们考虑各个企业之间的衔接和协调问题.本文先叙述了旅游服务供应链的概念,然后应用博弈模型、经典报童模型就旅游服务供应链中若干环节的协调进行讨论并给出对策.