物流成本管理体系及其效率——一个实证研究

本文利用多元回归分析了各种影响因素与供应链物流成本管理体系完善度之间的关系,提出高效的供应链物流成本管理体系建立的关键要素是：良好的作业成本管理意识、科学多角度透明的核算报告体系以及跨功能、面向流程的团队,从而揭示了我国企业实现供应链物流成本管理的途径和需要关注的问题。     

基于战略采购视角的供应商关系管理研究

随着供应链管理的发展,采购职能逐渐发展为战略职能。因此,供应商关系管理的重要性不断提高。本文从战略采购的视角出发,根据采购物资的性质不同,提出了建立差异化供应商关系管理的基本模式及实现方式。     

Multi-server Batch-service Systems

In this paper we analyse a multi-server batch-service queueing model. Customers arrive one by one according to a Poisson process. They are served in batches under the following threshold policy: when a server becomes available a new batch of waiting customers is taken into service as soon as their number reaches a threshold a . The maximum allowable batch size is equal to b . Two classes of batch service time distributions are considered: Coxian-2 and Erlang- r distributions. In both cases the queueing model can be described by a Markov process. For this process it is shown that the equilibrium probabilities for states with all servers busy can be expressed as a finite sum of geometric terms. This form is used to derive a closed form expression for the waiting time distribution.     

Interactive analysis of high-dimensional association structures with graphical models

Graphical chain models are a powerful tool for analyzing multivariate data. Their practical use may still be cumbersome in some respects, since fitting the model requires a lengthy selection strategy based on the calculation of an enormous number of different regressions. In this paper, we present a computer system especially designed for the calculation of graphical chain models, which will not only automatically carry out the model search but also visualize the corresponding graph at each stage of the model fit. In addition, it allows the user to modify the graph and to fit the model interactively.     

The weather and macroeconomic determinants of whale-watching tourism: a Markov regime-switching analysis

Taking in sail is essential for a whale-watching excursion, which makes the demand for whale-watching tourism sensitive to the weather. The purpose of this paper is to examine the implications of two potential demand-side determinants, that is, weather and macroeconomic conditions, on the business cycle of Taiwan’s whale-watching tourism industry. By exploiting a Markov regime-switching model, this study finds that temperature and relative price changes are crucial determinants of the demand for whale-watching tourism, no matter whether in the peaks or in the troughs. Nevertheless, the influences of sunshine hours, rainfall and real GDP per capita on the demand for whale-watching tourism depend heavily on the phases of business cycle. The empirical results provide some inspiration for sustainable management of Taiwan’s whale-watching tourism.     

基于AHP的旅游供应链绩效评价实证研究

旅游市场竞争由旅游企业之间的竞争逐渐转变为旅游供应链之间的竞争,层次分析法(AHP)为旅游供应链绩效评价提供了思路.在分析旅游供应链绩效评价内涵基础上,构建了一个适用于层次分析法的旅游供应链绩效评价指标体系和绩效评价模型,并以罗定市快乐天旅行社为例,对它的上游旅游供应企业的产品价格、生产能力、信用、投诉率、管理水平进行研究,来检测AHP对旅游供应链绩效评价的效用.     

小农户参与农业全产业链的选择偏好及其异质性来源——基于选择实验法的分析

小农户参与农业全产业链是"实现小农户和现代农业发展有机衔接"的有效途径。本文基于山东省339户小农户的入户调查数据,采用选择实验法,建立混合Logit模型分析了小农户参与农业全产业链的选择偏好和偏好异质性来源。研究结果表明:相对于与龙头企业合作,小农户更愿意通过加入农民专业合作社参与农业全产业链,而且稳定紧密的利益联结机制、提供生产技术和市场信息服务及补贴政策会显著提高小农户的参与效用。研究也表明:小农户参与农业全产业链的选择偏好存在异质性,异质性偏好主要来源于小农户的兼业程度、家庭年纯收入和收入在村中所处水平三个因素。小农户兼业程度越低、年纯收入越低、收入在村中所处水平越低,越偏好参与农业全产业链经营。     

集成电路产业研发合作网络特征分析——基于产业链视角

在产业链高端获得高附加值是摆脱“低端锁定”的必经途径。集成电路产业链不同环节具有不同的技术要求和研发需求,目前有关嵌入产业链后研发合作情况的研究不足。从产业链视角建立集成电路产业研发合作网络,采用复杂网络理论及分析方法,对嵌入产业链前后的网络规模、小世界性、无标度特征及节点影响力范围和主体特征进行分析,结果发现：集成电路产业发展具有明显的价值链研发合作特征,且围绕固定核心企业的合作网络展开,网络中的核心节点对产业进化具有重大影响,但我国在集成电路产业链研发合作网络中尚未形成影响。最后,提出增强我国集成电路产业竞争力的对策建议。     

跳跃随机波动的阈值模型风险值的贝叶斯估计

文章基于一类跳跃随机波动的阈值模型风险值估计贝叶斯分析,在给定先验分布下,以马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法估计模型中的未知参数,并给出了MCMC模拟算法,进而讨论了风险值的预测。根据模拟结果,我们得知,如果没有考虑金融时间序列的外生冲击导致的跳跃行为,将会高估风险值,因此考虑跳跃行为后,将增加风险值估计的精度。     

新疆棉花产业链发展现状及对策建议

棉花产业各部门之间基于一定的技术经济关联构成了产业链。目前,新疆的棉花资源优势尚未转化为经济优势,棉花产业链各环节之间还存在一些问题。本文在对新疆棉花产业链各环节发展现状及问题进行分析的基础上,提出了相应的对策建议。