Voluntary Disclosure of Nonproprietary Information: A Complete Equilibrium Characterization

The so-called disclosure principle is a 'puzzle' in the accounting literature: Game theoretic models of financial markets show that in equilibrium firms should disclose all their private information. Yet, the result is not convincing. Researchers have therefore built sophisticated models in order to demonstrate for which reasons the disclosure principle might fail. This note shows that even in the original model there are multiple equilibria. In those equilibria good types disclose and bad types do not. The commonly known full disclosure equilibrium is a limit point of the equilibrium set.     

Multiple equilibria and hysteresis in simple exchange models

This paper presents a simple two-good general equilibrium model of exchange in which demands are linear functions of relative prices. The solution of the model is represented by a cubic equation which can have either a single root which corresponds to a unique equilibrium price or three roots corresponding to multiple equilibria. The major properties of the model are that the relative price can make large discrete jumps in response to small parameter changes, and can display hysteresis. The paper shows how recent developments in non-linear methods can be used to examine the equilibrium properties of the model and establish conditions under which multiple equilibria can arise. The model is compared with that used by Shapley and Shubik.     

政府监督下建设主体群体学习行为特征分析

建设工程质量政府监督的目的在于有效地保证公众和国家质量利益。在政府质量监督机构监督下,某个建设主体的质量行为是随机的,但随着时间的推移,某类建设主体采取某种质量行为的概率是固定的,建设主体群体学习行为符合马尔可夫特征,满足生灭过程。因此,政府监督机构应该根据各个建设主体的群体质量行为特征制定相应的激励与约束机制,以求在一定的监督力度下,实现监督效益最大化,保证质量总体水平不断提高。     

The Lowest Supply and Demand of Engineering Officers of National Vessels in Taiwan

This article is based on the number of engineering officers from 1994 to 2000 in Taiwan, and adopts a 6-year moving average to work out the transition probability of engineering officers and to construct an absorbing Markov Transition Matrix to forecast the terms of seniority and annual supply in each hierarchy. In order to estimate the minimum number of vessels needed, this article also employed the quantity of demand for imported consumer goods from 1994 to 2000 in Taiwan and applied a Grey model to predict the annual quantity of demand for imported consumer goods. Furthermore, this article estimated the minimum number of demand for engineering officers according to the minimum number of vessels needed. In addition, this paper used cross-analysis to investigate the manpower supply and demand of engineering officers in Taiwan and obtained some important results, which can be valuable references for pertinent authorities.     

民营企业内部审计研究与分析

民营经济已经成为我国国民经济的重要组成部分,民营经济发展为我国经济带来了新的活力,但民营经济存在着很多不完善的地方,内部审计就是其中之一。本文从分析建立和完善民营企业的动因开始,从多角度探讨了民营企业内部审计存在的问题,并提出完善措施,以期为改进民营企业内部审计提供参考。     

Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model, which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for hierarchical and for Minnesota-type priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.     

Immiserizing Growth in a Closed Economy

We develop a model with three key features: a factor market distortion, monopoly power in the product market and indivisibilities in consumption. In this setting, multiple equilibria arise, one with high and the other with low equilibrium wages, incomes and output. It is also shown that even in a closed economy, growth may be immiserizing and, finally, that redistribution could be a “rich man's game”.     

Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models

This paper incorporates vintage differences and forecasts into the Markov switching models described by Hamilton (1994). The vintage differences and forecasts induce parameter breaks close to the end of the sample, too close for standard maximum likelihood techniques to produce precise parameter estimates. A supplementary procedure estimates the statistical properties of the end-of-sample observations that behave differently from the rest, allowing inferred probabilities to reflect the breaks. Empirical results using real-time data show that these techniques improve the ability of a Markov switching model based on GDP and GDI to recognize the start of the 2001 recession.     

On the optimal taxation of common-pool resources

Recent research developments in common-pool resource models emphasize the importance of links with ecological systems and the presence of non-linearities, thresholds and multiple steady states. In a recent paper Kossioris et al. (2008) develop a methodology for deriving feedback Nash equilibria for non-linear differential games and apply this methodology to a common-pool resource model of a lake where pollution corresponds to benefits and at the same time affects the ecosystem services. This paper studies the structure of optimal state-dependent taxes that steer the combined economic-ecological system towards the trajectory of optimal management, and provides an algorithm for calculating such taxes.