关于完善我国会计核算制度体系的探讨

为完善我国会计核算制度体系，应处理好基本准则和具体准则的关系，具体准则和《企业会计制度》及《企业会计制度-会计科目和会计报表》的关系，避免在内容上的重复。     

On the existence of single-price equilibria in a matching model with divisible money and production cost

The present paper investigates Zhou's (1999) money search model, where money is divisible, agents can hold any amount of money and production of goods is costly, and presents a sufficient condition, expressed in terms of exogenously given parameters, for the existence of single-price equilibria.     

The impact of European Central Bank Governing Council announcements on the foreign exchange market: a microstructural analysis

We examine the evidence regarding systematic patterns in the euro-dollar foreign exchange market on days when the Governing Council (GC) of the European Central Bank announces its interest rate decisions versus other days. We examine 5-minute data in a non-linear framework allowing for switching between a high-volatility, informed-trading state and a low-volatility, liquidity-trading state. We find strong evidence that the GC policy announcements contain significant news content. Although there is some evidence of positioning in the hour prior to the announcement, this probably reflects dealers minimizing their exposure rather than evidence of information leakage.     

完善我国反补贴法律制度的几点思考

随着我国加入WTO,越来越多的外国产品进入我国市场,而其中有很多是倾销产品和补贴产品。由于我国的反补贴法律制度不够完善,导致我国在对外贸易方面的合法权益得不到维护。本文对完善我国犯补贴法律制度的措施进行了探讨。     

Millsian causation

The Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) theory of causation is based on the assumption that randomly sampling the variables of a causal system will yield a joint probability distribution that satisfies the Markovian condition. It is shown here that this condition can be split into two parts, one of which is named the Millsian condition. It is further shown that the Millsian condition alone implies that causally unrelated sets of variables are conditionally independent given their common causes, very likely a key requirement stated by John Stuart Mill 150 years ago. In Millsian causation, unlike Markovian causation, it is possible for an indirect cause to be associated with its effect even when controlling for the intermediate direct causes. This phenomenon is explained by taking into account the existence of potential causal modulation.     

The Impact of Central Bank FX Interventions on Currency Components

This article assesses the impact of official FOREX interventionsof the three major central banks in terms of the dynamics ofthe currency components of the major exchange rates over theperiod 1989–2003. We identify the currency componentsof the mean and volatility processes of exchange rates usingthe framework developed recently by Bos and Shephard (2006).Our results show that, in general, concerted interventions tendto affect the dynamics of both currency components of the exchangerate. In contrast, unilateral interventions are found to primarilyaffect the currency of the central bank present in the market.Our findings also emphasize a role for interventions conductedby these central banks on other related FOREX markets.     

Jump Spillover in International Equity Markets

In this article we study jump spillover effects between a numberof country equity indexes. In order to identify the latent historicaljumps of each index, we use a Bayesian approach to estimatea jump-diffusion model on each index. We look at the simultaneousjump intensities of pairs of countries and the probabilitiesthat jumps in large countries cause jumps or unusually largereturns in other countries. In all cases, we find significantevidence of jump spillover. In addition, we find that jump spilloverseems to be particularly large between countries that belongto the same regions and have similar industry structures, whereas,interestingly, the sample correlations between the countrieshave difficulties in capturing the jump spillover effects.     

Estimating Long-term Trends in Tropospheric Ozone Levels

This paper develops Bayesian methodology for estimating long-term trends in the daily maxima of tropospheric ozone. The methods are then applied to study long-term trends in ozone at six monitoring sites in the state of Texas. The methodology controls for the effects of meteorological variables because it is known that variables such as temperature, wind speed and humidity substantially affect the formation of tropospheric ozone. A semiparametric regression model is estimated in which a nonparametric trivariate surface is used to model the relationship between ozone and these meteorological variables because, while it is known that the relatinship is a complex nonlinear one, its functional form is unknown. The model also allows for the effects of wind direction and seasonality. The errors are modeled as an autoregression, which is methodologically challenging because the observations are unequally spaced over time. Each function in the model is represented as a linear combination of basis functions located at all of the design points. We also estimate an appropriate data transformation simulataneously with the functions. The functions are estimated nonparametrically by a Bayesian hierarchical model that uses indicator variables to allow a non-zero probability that the coefficient of each basis term is zero. The entire model, including the nonparametric surfaces, data transformation and autoregression for the unequally spaced errors, is estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme with a computationally efficient transition kernel for generating the indicator variables. The empirical results indicate that key meteorological variables explain most of the variation in daily ozone maxima through a nonlinear interaction and that their effects are consistent across the six sites. However, the estimated trends vary considerably from site to site, even within the same city.     

Examining monetary policy reaction in the People’s Republic of China – a Markov switching policy index approach

This paper estimates a monetary policy rule for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) using a standard OLS estimation and a Markov switching model. As the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) generally uses a battery of instruments in the conduct of its monetary policy, these models are estimated using a constructed monetary policy index (MPI) in place of the traditional interest rate. This allows for a better understanding of the role the PBOC has played in the PRC’s unprecedented economic growth and its relatively low inflation over the last twenty years. This paper will not only examine the unique characteristics of Chinese monetary policy but may also give a more general insight into the dynamics of monetary policy reactions in other emerging markets and economies in transition.     

The Stability of Tax Elasticities over the Business Cycle in European Countries

We estimate short‐ and long‐run tax elasticities that capture the relationship between changes in national income and tax revenue. We show that the short‐run tax elasticity changes according to the business cycle. We estimate a two‐state Markov‐switching regression on a novel data set of tax policy reforms in 15 European countries from 1980 to 2013, showing that the elasticities during booms and recessions are statistically (and often economically) different. The elasticities of personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, indirect taxes and social contributions tend to be larger during recessions. Estimates of long‐run elasticities are in line with existing literature.