Too small to be independent? On the influence of ECB monetary policy on interest rates of the EEA countries

Monetary policy independence is regarded as the central argument in favour of floating exchange rates and monetary integration. We evaluate the actual independence of non-euro members of the European Economic Area by using heterogeneous panel cointegration methods that allow cross-dependency. We show that domestic interest rates follow the euro interest rates. These spillovers imply a low monetary independence despite the insulation given by floating exchange rate regimes and inflation-targeting frameworks. We therefore find significant spillover effects of the European Central Bank policy and argue that the costs of monetary integration in Europe may be lower than expected.     

Patterns of poverty among elderly Americans: a latent class Markov model

This article studies poverty persistence and the role of social security programmes on poverty among elderly in the US. We use a Latent Markov model to disentangle unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence. Because of its dynamic nature, unobserved heterogeneity is modelled to vary over time. This allows to capture different latent states of poverty that change over time. Result indicates the existence of three unobserved types evolving over time according to their propensity to be poor. Moreover, a strong persistence in poverty especially for women, individuals living alone and ethnic minorities is found. Finally, the estimates indicate that giving social assistance tends to reduce poverty.     

建国初期中共粮食战略与1949年云南公粮征收研究

1950年3月6日以宋任穷为书记的中共云南省委正式成立，3月12日即颁布命令征收1949年公粮。当时各地基层政权立足未稳，难以承担如此巨任，阶级矛盾、民族矛盾错综复杂，征粮刚一展开即受挫。其原因主要一是云南财政恶化超出预想，粮食存量少；二是粮食新政权的保障，所以中共云南省委不遗余力地大力推进征粮工作。此次征粮不仅与云南地方军民生活用度有关，更与建国初期中共新政权在经济战场上与敌人斗争紧密相连。     

EEC双通道健康度评估方法研究

为了解决航空发动机双通道电子控制器(EEC)两个通道均发生故障时如何评估通道健康度,从而选择主控通道的问题,论文提出了基于逆模型计算发动机推力敏感度的方法,量化不同信号故障对发动机推力的影响程度,依据推力敏感度来评估双通道健康度,协助主控通道选择,最终提高系统的安全性。     

REGIME DEPENDENT EFFECT OF OUTPUT GROWTH ON OUTPUT GROWTH UNCERTAINTY: EVIDENCE FROM OECD COUNTRIES

This paper studies the impact of output growth on output growth uncertainty by considering two important issues hitherto not properly and adequately addressed to in the existing empirical studies specifying this relationship. These are: (i) the possible existence of a threshold level of output growth, and the consequent identification of two regimes characterized by high and low output growth, and (ii) whether or not the coefficient capturing the causal link is different in these two output growth states. This paper proposes a regime switching model to study this asymmetric effect for 16 OECD countries. Based on monthly time‐series observations, our results strongly support that the impact varies significantly between the two output growth regimes with the coefficient in the high growth regime being negative for majority of the countries.     

基于JIT思想对汽车玻璃生产线WIP的控制策略

本文分析了汽车玻璃加工生产线的生产流程,生产车间不同种类的在制品(WIP)数量很庞大,为此研究生产线的瓶颈工序,得到瓶颈工序生产线的切换时间对WIP库存的影响,研究生产线的切换时间、工序之间的生产节拍比和WIP库存数三者之间的关系,结合JIT和WIP库存控制策略来保证生产线的流畅生产,归纳出关键的工序节拍比下所需的WIP库存数的动态变化情况,从而动态地控制WIP库存的变化并最大程度地降低车间的WIP库存。     

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF DISTRIBUTIVE POLICIES ON THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY USING AN SCGE MODEL

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic policies on the Brazilian economy. We present a two-sector, open-economy, Structuralist Computable General Equilibrium model that distinguishes among three economic classes and assumes no financial sector. The Social Accounting Matrix for Brazil in 2006 serves as a benchmark for our model. We compare the medium-run effects of five experiments: an income transfer towards formal workers, a transfer to informal labour, an investment shock, an exchange rate depreciation, and a policy mix that combines (exchange rate) depreciation with income transfer towards modern (sector) workers. The policy measures reinforce each other in terms of their potential to enhance growth. Our findings underscore the importance of redistributive policies to foster economic expansion.     

Semi-parametric dynamic asymmetric Laplace models for tail risk forecasting,incorporating realized measures

This paper extends the joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2019), by incorporating a realized measure to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily returns. Furthermore, we propose and test a new model for the dynamics of the ES component. Both a maximum likelihood and an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method are employed for estimation, the properties of which are compared in a simulation study. The results favour the Bayesian approach, which is employed subsequently in a forecasting study of seven financial market indices. The proposed models are compared to a range of parametric, non-parametric and semi-parametric competitors, including GARCH, realized GARCH, the extreme value theory method and the joint VaR and ES models of Taylor (2019), in terms of the accuracy of one-day-ahead VaR and ES forecasts, over a long forecast sample period that includes the global financial crisis in 2007–2008. The results are favorable for the proposed models incorporating a realized measure, especially when employing the sub-sampled realized variance and the sub-sampled realized range.