中国30年经济增长与就业：构建灵活安全的劳动力市场

运用宏观统计数据,本文首先回答了中国经济增长是否创造就业的问题.通过分阶段分析经济增长对就业的拉动效应.文章认为中国经济增长是一种创造了大量就业的增长;本文第二部分分析劳动供求关系的最新变化及其演变趋势.认为劳动供求关系正在发生根本性转变。但中国尚没有步入劳动力短缺时代.在今后20年左右的时间内仍然拥有充足的劳动供给;本文第三部分讨论了当前劳动力市场所面临的主要问题,认为结构性矛盾突出、就业非正规化严重、初次收入分配扭曲等问题突出:第四部分为结论,提出构建安全灵活劳动力市场的概念和设想。     

The Role of Bank and Corporate Balance Sheets on Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises—An Empirical Study

This study analyzes the role of bank and corporate balance sheets on early warning systems (EWS) of currency crises. Using firm-level data on debt structure, leverage, liquidity, and profitability, this study presents estimations of EWS for a panel of emerging markets. Using calibration experiments, we assess the performance of alternative EWS specifications in a comprehensive range of crisis-probability cut-offs?. These models supplement EWS based on traditional macroeconomic indicators, improving forecasting performance substantially. The results support the third-generation models of currency crises and can assist policymakers on the design of surveillance strategies tailored for heterogeneous levels of risk tolerance and country specificities.     

Corporate social responsibility and Eurozone corporate bonds: The moderating role of country sustainability

In this paper, we empirically examine whether superior performance in corporate social responsibility (CSR) results in lower credit risk, measured by credit ratings and zero-volatility spreads (z-spreads). We are especially interested in how the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) related performance of the corresponding countries moderates this relationship. We find only weak evidence that superior corporate social performance (CSP) results in systematically reduced credit risk. However, we do find strong support for our hypothesis that a country’s ESG performance moderates the CSP–credit risk relationship. Superior CSP is regarded as risk-reducing and rewarded with better ratings and lower z-spreads only if it is recognized by the environment. In addition, we find a reduction of corporate bonds’ z-spreads by approx. 9.64 basis points if the CSP of a company mirrors the ESG performance of the country it is located in.     

Volatility returns with vengeance: Financial markets vs. commodities

To assess how financial markets and commodities are inter-related, this paper introduces a ‘volatility surprise’ component into the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) framework. We develop an econometric model in which returns and volatility allow to influence pairs of assets, and derive several case studies linking commodities to stocks, bonds and currencies from 1983 to 2013. The innovative feature of our model is that these volatility spillovers are modeled consistently within the correlation dynamics of the ADCCX. We find evidence that return and volatility spillovers do exist between commodity and financial markets and that in turn, their relative impact on each other is very substantial.     

Short-term overreaction to specific events: Evidence from an emerging market

This paper investigates the short-term overreaction to specific events and whether stock prices are predictable in the Egyptian stock exchange (EGX). We find evidence of the short-term overreaction in the EGX. Losers (“bad news” portfolios) significantly outperform winners (“good news” portfolios) and investors can earn abnormal return by selling the winners and buying losers. Terrorist attacks have negative and significant abnormal returns for three days post event followed by price reversals on day four post event. Whereas, the tensions in the Middle East region have a negative and significant abnormal returns on event day followed by price reversals on day one post event. Moreover, the formation of a new government has no effect on the average abnormal returns post event in the EGX. The results also show that small firms tend to have greater price reversals compared to large firms. Overall, our results provide evidence of the leakage of information in the EGX.     

El efecto fin de mes en los principales mercados accionarios latinoamericanos

In equity markets, it is common to find calendar anomalies, which have been the subject of several studies in recent decades, even some of them showing that over time these anomalies have disappeared. In this context, this paper analyzes one of these anomalies, the end-of-the-month effect, in both return and volatility in six Latin American stock markets, namely Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Argentina during the period of 1993-2011. The importance of the evidence for the existence of this anomaly is to allow testing whether the effect has been disappearing over time. The findings of this research show the existence of positive abnormal returns and abnormal volatilities on days associated with the change of months for most of the countries under analysis. This research was performed according to three different periods defined in the literature to analyze the impact of the end-of-the-month effect. This research not only examines the key indexes of each market, but also the individual stocks of each, giving a much larger and demanding sample, which can lead to better conclusions about the existence of the phenomenon. Also, the transaction volume analysis is included to validate some hypotheses related with the high cash flow in the turn-of-month period.     

Equity financing activities and European value-growth returns

This paper extends the U.S. evidence in Bali et al. (2010) to European stock markets. Like in the United States, European value-growth returns are strongly dependent on the valuation signals contained in the firm’s equity financing activities. The high returns of value firms are due to value purchasers, while the low returns of growth firms are due to growth issuers. Among value issuers and growth purchasers, there exists no value premium at all. The large return difference between value purchasers and growth issuers cannot be explained by common risk factors. However, employing Piotroski and So’s (2012) recently proposed market expectation errors approach shows that the observed value-growth returns can be attributed to mispricing.     

Labour Market Adjustments to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries

This paper provides some of the first empirical evidence on labour market adjustments to exchange rate movements in Canadian manufacturing industries. Controlling for endogeneity using generalized method of moments estimation, it is found that during the 1981–1997 period, exchange movements have a substantial impact on labour input and that this impact has grown over time as the manufacturing industries have become more exposed to trade. In contrast, the exchange rate effect on real wages is estimated to be virtually zero for all manufacturing industries.

中国企业内部资本市场的功能、陷阱及其法律规制

中国现阶段内部资本市场具有优化融资渠道、催化产业整合以及改进公司治理的功能,但由于信息不对称及代理问题而存在利益侵占、过度投资、风险扩散以及低效率补贴等诸多潜在陷阱。完善的法律规制体系将有助于减少机会主义的内部资本市场运作所带来的负面效应。