How strong are the linkages between real estate and other sectors in China?

International experience points to the critical role of stable property markets in maintaining financial stability. This paper investigates the real and financial linkages between real estate sector and other sectors. The real linkage based on input–output analysis shows that the linkages have strengthened. The financial linkages in terms of credit risk spillovers across sectors are studied by using DAG method and SVAR. We find that that credit risk in the real estate sector has large-scale spillover effects onto other sectors. Consequently, shocks to the property market could have much larger impact on the Chinese economy than suggested by headline figures.     

Assessing implicit hypotheses in life table construction

Mortality figures are of capital importance for policy-making and public planning, as in forecasting financial provisions in public pension systems. General population life tables are constructed from aggregated statistics, an issue that usually entails adopting some (implicit) assumptions in their construction, such as the hypothesis of closed demographic system or the hypotheses of uniform distributions of death counts (and migration events) by age and calendar year. As microdata have become more abundant and reliable, these hypotheses could be assessed and more assumption-free estimators employed. Using a real database from Spain, we show that the above hypotheses are not appropriate in general and that the more efficient estimators proposed in this paper should be promoted, as differences persist depending on the estimator computed.     

Statistical inference of partially linear varying coefficient spatial autoregressive models

This paper proposes a semiparametric partially linear varying coefficient spatial autoregressive model, which is a generalization of standard spatial autoregressive model and partially linear spatial autoregressive model. To estimate the unknown spatial lag parameter, constant coefficients and coefficient functions, a profile quasi-maximum likelihood approach based on the local-linear method is introduced. To test the existence of the spatial effects, a generalized likelihood ratio test statistic is proposed, and a residual-based bootstrap procedure is used to derive the p-value of the test. Some simulations are conducted to examine the performance of our proposed procedures and the results are satisfactory. Furthermore, a real-world example is given to demonstrate the application of the proposed procedures.     

Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy

We evaluate the empirical performance of forward‐looking models for inflation dynamics in a small open economy. Using likelihood‐based testing procedures, we find that the exact formulation is at odds with Norwegian data. Moreover, some of the parameters in the model are not well identified. We also find that the inexact formulation is not rejected statistically using a test based on a minimum distance method. However, confidence regions also reveal an identification problem with this model. Instead, we find a well‐specified backward‐looking model with imperfect competition underlying the price setting, which is a model that outperforms an alternative forward‐looking model in‐sample. The backward‐looking model also forecasts somewhat better than the alternative forward‐looking model, during and after the recent financial crisis.     

The Effect of Corporate Status on External Audit Fees: Evidence From the UK

Abstract:  This paper simultaneously examines, for the first time, the determinants of external audit fees of UK companies drawn from the quoted sector (Main Market, the Alternative Investment Market and Ofex), and the unquoted sector (public and private limited companies). The paper also provides new evidence on the effects of corporate failure and the persistence of the big four and mid-tier auditor premiums across the public and private corporate sectors. After controlling for firm size, audit risk and complexity, we find that quoted and unquoted public limited companies have significantly higher audit fees than their private limited counterparts. Our estimates imply that relative premiums for market/corporate form are as follows: Main Market over AIM, 6.8%; AIM over Ofex, 19.5%; Ofex over unquoted plc, 15.5%; and unquoted plc over private, 16.7%. However, despite indications in prior US research to the contrary, we find no evidence that insolvent firms that failed were charged higher audit fees in the year preceding failure. A positive relationship is also found between audit and consultancy fees – a result that persists using an instrumental variables approach to control for endogeneity.     

基于MaxEnt模型评估赤霞珠在川西横断山河谷的适生空间分布

［目的］川西横断山河谷是我国乃至世界高山酿酒葡萄的新兴产区,赤霞珠是该区域主栽品种之一。复杂的地理条件使得该区域与其他酿酒葡萄主产区的自然环境差异显著。科学评估川西横断山河谷区赤霞珠适宜空间分布,可促进该区域酿酒葡萄可持续发展。［方法］文章综合运用MaxEnt模型和GIS技术,构建了赤霞珠适宜分布与环境变量的关系模型,筛选出主导环境变量,利用存在概率划分适宜等级,预测了赤霞珠在川西横断山河谷的适宜分布。［结果］赤霞珠适宜分布与环境变量的关系模型准确度非常好（AUC>090）。在川西横断山河谷,主导环境变量依次为最热月平均气温、海拔、pH、秋季降雨量、年日照时数、年温差、全氮。川西横断山河谷大部分地区为不适宜区,低适宜区约为2 2752km2,中适宜区约1 29608km2。高适宜区面积为1 16428km2,且集中分布在丹巴县、小金县、金川县、九寨沟县和巴塘县。［结论］MaxEnt模型通过存在概率进行作物分布模拟和预测,对作物适宜区划具有较强应用价值和指导意义。对于不同区域和作物应注意环境变量,空间尺度,物种采样位置等问题,提高作物适宜区划精度。最后应加快该区域生产空间调整,在丹巴县、九寨沟县、金川县、小金县、巴塘县赤霞珠还有很大潜力空间,在黑水县、马尔康市、松潘县、白玉县、德荣县、康定县需适度发展,在汶川县、理县、茂县、稻城县、乡城县,应加强生产管理,减少不利环境影响。仁和区不宜再进行规模扩张。     

强干扰下跳频信号的参数估计

针对通信对抗中跳频信号参数估计问题,考虑存在强干扰的情况下,提出了一种基于时频重心的跳频信号跳周期估计和基于跳频部分接收的跳时估计方法。对于跳周期估计,在短时傅里叶变换（STFT）时频变换的基础上提取信号随时间变化的时频重心,再结合小波变换和谱分析估计出跳频周期;对于跳时估计,采用跳频带宽的部分接收避开强干扰,构造含有跳变信息的参考信号,通过参考信号采用最大似然(ML)方法得到跳时的精确估计。仿真实验表明,算法运算复杂度低,跳频定位精度高,在强定频干扰的情况下仍能有效估计出跳频周期和起跳时刻。     

The maximum capture per unit cost location problem

This paper considers the problem of siting p new facilities of an entering firm to a competitive market so as to maximize the market share captured from competitors per unit cost. We first formulate the problem as a mixed 0-1 fractional programming model, in which we incorporate the fixed cost and transportation cost. The model can deal with the case where some demand nodes have two or more possible closest servers. We then re-formulate the problem as a 0-1 mixed integer linear program. We use a one-opt heuristic algorithm based on the Teitz-Bart method to obtain feasible solutions and compare them with the optimal solutions obtained by a branch-and-bound algorithm. We conduct computational experiments to evaluate the two algorithms. The results show that both algorithms can solve the model efficiently and the model is integer-friendly. We discuss other computational results and provide managerial insights.     

Family firms’ identity communication and consumers’ product involvement impact on consumer response

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the image transfer theory and the elaboration likelihood model can provide a theoretical framework capable of assessing the influence of consumers’ product involvement and family firms’ identity communication through websites on consumer responses. This research conducted an experiment using an eye‐tracking technique measuring attention to family and nonfamily corporate websites. The procedure involved 120 participants. Consistent with the image transfer theory, family firms’ identity through websites positively impacts attitude toward the website and intention to buy. Additionally, the attitude toward the website affects the relationship between family firms’ identity through websites and the intention to buy. In line with the elaboration likelihood model, consumers’ product involvement negatively impacts the relationship between family firms’ identity through websites and intention to buy.     

Efficient parameter estimation for independent and INAR(1) negative binomial samples

We consider moment based estimation methods for estimating parameters of the negative binomial distribution that are almost as efficient as maximum likelihood estimation and far superior to the celebrated zero term method and the standard method of moments estimator. Maximum likelihood estimators are difficult to compute for dependent samples such as samples generated from the negative binomial first-order autoregressive integer-valued processes. The power method of estimation is suggested as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation for such samples and a comparison is made of the asymptotic normalized variance between the power method, method of moments and zero term method estimators.