International commitment,post-entry growth and survival of international new ventures

This paper makes several contributions to the emerging literature on the post-entry behavior of international new ventures. Based on an extensive longitudinal data set, we investigate the dynamics of commitment, growth and survival of different types of newly internationalizing Belgian firms. Global start-ups have the highest initial and rapidly rising export commitment per market and are also more likely to continue exporting over time than geographically focused start-ups, and traditional staged exporters. However, global start-ups also display the highest failure rate. This high failure rate appears to result primarily from the ‘liability of newness’ and less from the added complexity associated with rapid and wide scope internationalization.     

An Empirical Investigation of Composite Product Choice

Prior ingredient branding research has examined the influence of “stated” factors such as fit between partner brands on composite product (e.g., Tide with Downy fabric softener) attitudes. This research focuses on choice of composite products, and addresses three managerially relevant questions: Which consumer segments are more likely to adopt the composite product? Will the choice of the composite product have positive or negative reciprocal effects on partner brands? Will the introduction of the composite product benefit the primary or the secondary brand more? The authors use a brand choice model to investigate the “revealed” choice of complements-based composite products. Study results indicate that (i) despite high fit between the composite product and the primary brand, consumer segments may have different choice likelihoods for these products, whereas prior research suggests equal likelihood; (ii) the choice of a composite product may not provide a positive reciprocal effect to the secondary brand; and (iii) the introduction of a composite product may benefit the primary brand more than the secondary brand, whereas prior research suggests a symmetrical benefit for the partner brands. Finally, the finding that introducing a composite product may not cannibalize the sale of the primary brand extends the ingredient branding literature, which has been silent on this issue.     

经济学视角下自然保护区有效管理行为研究——以甘肃白水江自然保护区李子坝社区为例

以甘肃白水江自然保护区李子坝社区巡护监测为例,从经济学的视角,运用比较优势和竞合模型分析该社区巡护监测与专业巡护监测的两种行为。模型分析显示两者各有优势,在专业巡护监测的基础上,如果辅之以社区巡护监测能更有效地促进环境与生物的多样性的保护,既可以提升有效管理的水平,又可以达到社区保护利益的最大化。     

Numerical Maximisation of Likelihood: A Neglected Alternative to EM?

There is by now a long tradition of using the EM algorithm to find maximum‐likelihood estimates (MLEs) when the data are incomplete in any of a wide range of ways, even when the observed‐data likelihood can easily be evaluated and numerical maximisation of that likelihood is available as a conceptually simple route to the MLEs. It is rare in the literature to see numerical maximisation employed if EM is possible. But with excellent general‐purpose numerical optimisers now available free, there is no longer any reason, as a matter of course, to avoid direct numerical maximisation of likelihood. In this tutorial, I present seven examples of models in which numerical maximisation of likelihood appears to have some advantages over the use of EM as a route to MLEs. The mathematical and coding effort is minimal, as there is no need to derive and code the E and M steps, only a likelihood evaluator. In all the examples, the unconstrained optimiser nlm available in R is used, and transformations are used to impose constraints on parameters. I suggest therefore that the following question be asked of proposed new applications of EM: Can the MLEs be found more simply and directly by using a general‐purpose numerical optimiser?     

Oil risk contracts,business conduct and performance patterns: Data panel analysis

Using the economic and financial performance data of international companies for the exploration, and exploration–extraction (E&E) of oil, as well as the patterns of institutional situation and orientation with the government market and national oil companies or NOCs that receive project offers, we analyze the institutional development and behavior patterns by type of E&E contract, following the strategic actor approach, or the so-called agency theory. Additionally, in light of Mexico's energy reform being implemented between 2015 and 2019, we analyzed the types of license contracts compared to those for production and shared profit. Subsequently, it was determined-through panel data methods in the analysis of 17 companies between 2005 and 2015-that global companies present bigger yields and commitments compared to specialized companies, confirmed by their net income and returns on equity or ROE.     

Forecasting China's foreign exchange reserves using dynamic model averaging: The roles of macroeconomic fundamentals,financial stress and economic uncertainty

We develop models for examining possible predictors of growth of China's foreign exchange reserves that embrace Chinese and global trade, financial and risk (uncertainty) factors. Specifically, by comparing with other alternative models, we show that the dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS) models outperform not only linear models (such as random walk, recursive OLS-AR(1) models, recursive OLS with all predictive variables models) but also the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) model for examining possible predictors of growth of those reserves. The DMS is the best overall across all forecast horizons. While some predictors matter more than others over the forecast horizons, there are few that stand the test of time. The US–China interest rate differential has a superior predictive power among the 13 predictors considered, followed by the nominal effective exchange rate and the interest rate spread for most of the forecast horizons. The relative predictive prowess of the oil and copper prices alternates, depending on the commodity cycles. Policy implications are also provided.     

Econometrics and equilibrium models

In Rational Econometric Man, Edward Nell and Karim Errouaki present a welcome and timely case for the view that econometrics and econometric model-building may not be the magic tools to solve all empirical questions despite what many seem to have thought they were in the 1960s. Here I examine some possible problems with econometric models that have to do with their usually taking the form of equilibrium models. Some of these problems were recognized by Trygve Haavelmo decades ago. And as Aris Spanos has recently discussed, the problems are often the result of what we say in our textbooks. Some problems have to do with what we mean by econometric parameters and others with how we use probabilities.     

Exploring the impact of the physical conditions of mannequin displays on mental simulation: An embodied cognition theory perspective

This study examines how mannequins' physical conditions of display height and distance are related to consumers’ shopping motivations in generating mental simulation resulting in purchase intention. A 2 × 2 x 2 between-subjects lab experiment (n = 249) was conducted to address this question. The results reveal a significant three-way interaction effect of display height, distance, and shopping motivation. Specifically, it is found that for those with a dominant hedonic shopping motivation, a mannequin displayed up high generates greater mental simulation than one displayed down low, but for those with a dominant utilitarian shopping motivation, a mannequin displayed high and close to consumers generates greater mental simulation than one displayed low and close to them. This study also reveals that mental simulation mediates the influence of the interaction effect of “display height x distance,” moderated by shopping motivation, on purchase intention. Important theoretical and practical implications for retail managers are discussed.     

Sustainability in the prospective scenarios methods: A case study of scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil,for 2030

In order to build prospective scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil, with a sustainable perspective, it was necessary to develop a cross-disciplinary work to include Sachs’ dimensions of sustainability into the scenarios method. This meant linking concepts from different disciplines, without transforming it in a new discipline. In order to support the proposition for the new method, a study case is presented, the framework for the biodiesel scenarios in Brazil, by 2030. An in-depth interview was used to test the proposition of having the sustainability dimensions as driving forces. The result was the identification of a critical uncertainty composed of various aspects related the response to climate change and environmental conservation. The scenario storylines that were developed based on the critical uncertainties showed that sustainable options for the future are possible if the mental maps are enlarged to see beyond the business as usual.The results show that the scenarios storylines go through social, environmental and economic aspects, supported by other aspects like the territorial and political. Also it showed that sustainable options are possible if the mental maps are enlarged to see beyond the business as usual.     

DEMAND,CUSTOMER BASE‐LINE AND DEMAND RESPONSE IN THE ELECTRICITY MARKET: A SURVEY

The increasing use of demand‐side management, as a tool to reliably meet electricity demands at peak time, has stimulated interest among researchers, consumers and producer organiza‐tions, managers, regulators and policymakers. This research reviews the growing literature on models which are used to study demand, customer base‐line (CBL) and demand response in the electricity market. After characterizing the general demand models, the CBL, based on which the demand response models are studied, is reviewed. Given the experience gained from the review and existing conditions, the study combines an appropriate model for each case for a possible application to the electricity market; moreover, it discusses the implications of the results. In the literature, these aspects are studied independently. The main contribution of this survey is attributed to the treatment of the three issues as sequentially interdependent. The review is expected to enhance the understanding of the demand, CBL and demand response in the electricity market and their relationships. The objective is conducted through a combination of demand and supply side managements in order to reduce demand through different demand response programs during peak times. This enables electricity suppliers to save costly electricity generation and at the same time reduce energy vulnerability.