On asymptotic properties of Bonus–Malus systems based on the number and on the size of the claims

A general framework for a Bonus–Malus system (BMS) based on the number and the size of the claims is presented, the set of the bonus classes being an interval [a,?b], say 0<a<1<b. The BMS is interpreted as a general Markov chain with state space [a,?b]. It turns out that, under certain assumptions, the Markov chain possesses an invariant limit distribution to which it converges with a geometric rate. We show how the invariant distribution can be evaluated by means of simulation. We also deal with the best possible convergence rate and show how it can be presented by means of the spectral theory of Banach spaces.     

Time-varying betas and the cross-sectional return–risk relation: evidence from the UK

The seminal study by Fama and MacBeth in 1973 initiated a stream of papers testing for the cross-sectional relation between return and risk. The debate as to whether beta is a valid measure of risk was reanimated by Fama and French and subsequent studies. Rather than focusing on exogenous variables that have a larger explanatory power than an asset's beta in cross-sectional tests, the matrix of variances-covariances is assumed to follow a time varying ARCH process. Using monthly data from the UK market from February 1975 to December 1996, the cross-sectional return–risk relations obtained with an unconditional specification for assets’ betas are compared to those obtained when the estimated betas are based on an ARCH model. The approach taken by Pettengill, Sundaram and Mathur, which allows a negative cross sectional return–risk relation in periods in which the market portfolio yields a negative return relative to the risk free rate, was also investigated. These tests are also carried out on samples pertaining to a specific month and on samples from which a particular month is removed. Results suggest that the CAPM holds better in downward moving markets than in upward moving markets hence beta is a more appropriate measure of risk in bear markets.     

Linkage Measures: a Revisit and a Suggested Alternative

This paper examines major linkage measures in the literature from different perspectives and attempts to clarify some of the controversies over them. The examination and clarification suggest more refined backward and forward linkage measures for linkage indices construction. The measures are then applied to analyse the linkages of Hawaii’s agriculture sectors.     

Technology Flows Between Industries: Identification and Productivity Effects

This paper investigates whether the Yale Technology Concordance (YTC) succeeds in identzbing technology flows between sectors. As a test, total factor productivity (TFP)-R&D regressions based on the YTC matrix are compared with regressions using technology flow data constructed fram input–output matrices and randomly created interindusty linkages. Because results based on the YTC do not dzffer markedly from the other estimates, one cannot easily infer @om the empirical evidence whether the YTC matrix appropriately captures interindusty technology flows or not.     

US and East Asian Security under the Obama Presidency: A Japanese Perspective

The most important factor determining the structure of East Asia will continue to be the strategic relationship between the USA and China. It is the key component of the six party talks on the North Korean problem as well as nuclear nonproliferation. Japan is obviously a lesser strategic player, which is in a position to encourage middle-power security cooperation among the East Asian countries breathing between the USA and China. There is a conceptual, if not geopolitical, competition between Japan and China over an ideal future of East Asian regionalism, which the East Asian countries and the USA should join in a constructive manner.     

Decomposing Input–Output Tables to Establish the Effects of Temporal Changes in Demographic and Economic Characteristics

This paper reports on an analysis of economic and demographic changes in the UK during the period 1981–91, using an extended input–output (IO) formulation designed to measure impacts of such changes in economic and demographic systems. We derive a simple temporal change decomposition method and apply it to the extended IO formulation. This is then linked to a labour market account decomposition, and the conjoint decomposition applied to two labour market accounts and two IO tables for the UK. We are able to identify the impacts on the demographic and economic systems caused by changes in the economy, economic activity of the population, natural population change, migration and coefficient shifts of different types.     

How store attributes impact shoppers’ loyalty: do different national cultures follow the same loyalty building process?

This paper takes a first step toward verifying the robustness of a comprehensive loyalty building model across different national cultures, according to Hofstede’s distinction between individualist and collectivist countries. To this end, we test a two-stage model. After collecting data from 12 countries with different cultural traits, we test the two models in two macro groups: individualist and collectivist countries. The study’s results show that the intensity of some core loyalty model paths – particularly the relationships between store loyalty and its main drivers (perceived value and customer satisfaction) – are contingent on the country’s culture. In particular, the impact of customer satisfaction on store loyalty intention is greater in collectivist countries than in individualist countries. By contrast, the impact of perceived value on store loyalty is greater in individualist than in collectivist countries. Moreover, the cultural dimension moderates the impact of the stores’ environment and promotions on satisfaction. By contrast, some other paths show robustness to national culture.     

Combining service frequency and vehicle routing for managing supplier shipments

This paper proposes a new approach to designing inbound material collection routes that considers pick-up frequency and spatial design as joint decisions to minimize total logistics (transportation plus inventory) cost. The clustering-based optimization uses an approximation to the actual cost of a routing solution without actual route construction. We show that the problem is analogous to a single-source fixed-charge facility location problem, and near-optimal solutions can be found using an efficient heuristic algorithm. Tests show the effectiveness of how this model is formulated and a case study demonstrates that substantial total cost savings can be achieved in realistic applications.     

国外经验给广州现代化大都市建设的启示

透析美国、日本、韩国、新加坡等现代化国家的城市发展史,不难发现,它们在城市建设方面共存着许多惊人相似的经验。这些宝贵的经验,对我国现代化国际大都市的建设应有所裨益。     

Women's and Men's Contributions to Satisfying Consumers' Needs: A Combined Time Use and Input–Output Analysis

The traditional input–output table (IOT) identifies the intermediate flows between industries, the branches' contributions to satisfy final demand and the primary inputs needed for production. While industries play a key role in the field of input–output analysis, the structure of employees remains more or less unconsidered. The present study aims to combine particular information regarding employees' working time with traditional instruments of input–output analysis. In so doing, employees (and the corresponding paid working hours) are separated by industries, educational achievements and gender. This, in turn, allows for the identification of women's and men's contributions to satisfying different categories of final demand. In total, men's paid working hours significantly exceed women's labour input. However, societies rely likewise on paid and unpaid work. Therefore, the study finally accounts for the field of unpaid work, which – in Germany – is still dominated by women.