Scenario-based approach in dealing with climate change impacts in Central Tanzania

Climate variability and change continue to be a threat to Africa’s agro-ecosystems. This is anticipated to have a multitude of immediate and long-term impacts on sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resources of the present study attempts to establish the potential benefit of integrating local stakeholders’ knowledge into climate scenarios. Specifically, the study sought to tap into the expertise and perspectives of locally important stakeholders in the potentially sensitive Wami/Ruvu River catchment of Tanzania. Participatory scenario planning was used to explore sectors sensitive to climate variability and change. This included 84 selected smallholder farmers and their leaders spread across six villages within the catchment. Quantitative household surveys were conducted across 199 households and Supplementary information sourced from regional statistics. The survey indicates that farmers project that land and agricultural productivity and water resources will be affected by climate change. From the participatory approach adopted for the study, thematic scenario categories featuring land and water resource-use and management and farm productivity were developed. The research found scenario analysis as a useful tool in development planning, as it incorporates interacting risks and uncertainties. If adopted by local farmers, leaders, regional institutional frameworks and policy makers, the tool has the potential to improve responsiveness to changes and risks through its collaborative management approach. This study demonstrates the need for sustainable water use and management systems and land use and farming practices that will increase crop productivity and resilience to climate variability and change.     

农户地租契约选择的经济逻辑:预期效用抑或损失规避

随着收入水平和社会保障水平的提高,农户的经济决策动机逐渐从风险(成本)最低转变为收益最大。但是,地租契约的不完全性等因素,可能使农户在选择地租契约时,需要在收益(租金)的可靠性和收益最大化之间进行权衡。文章理论分析表明,农户在选择地租契约时,其经济逻辑是损失规避而非预期效用理论。进而,文章利用中国家庭金融2015年调查数据,通过probit、IVprobit和似无相关回归模型检验了这一理论假说。研究结果显示,租金水平越高,农户越倾向于选择固定地租契约;消除内生性后的边际效应显示,租金提高每万元,农户选择固定租金契约的概率提高28.3%。机制分析发现,土地流转契约期限的增加会强化租金对农地转出户选择固定租金契约的影响。运用工具变量估计、交叉项和费舍尔组合检验三种方法进行稳健性检验后,该结论仍然成立。进一步的异质性分析结果表明,租金对固定地租契约的促进效应,在低收入农户中相对更高;在低收入农户中,契约期限不具有调节作用。研究结果为地租领域农户财产性收入的增加与政策预期的不一致,提供了理论解释与经验证据。基于此,文章提出为使农户通过地租获得更多的财产性收入,需要进一步完善农地流转契约治理机制等政策建议。     

“稳就业”还是“毁就业”？ 数字经济对农民工高质量就业的影响

在"数字中国"和"就业优先"战略背景下,数字经济释放就业效能被社会寄予诸多厚望,但其在理论文献上缺乏直接的经验证据。文章利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和278个城市数据的匹配数据,采用腾讯研究院发布的"互联网+数字经济指数"对数字经济进行测度,考察了数字经济对农民工高质量就业的影响。研究发现,数字经济对农民工高质量就业具有显著的正向影响。为克服实证模型的内生性问题,文章选取历史数据作为工具变量,所得结果依然支持数字经济对农民工高质量就业的正向效应。基于广义倾向得分匹配法分析发现,数字经济尽管正向影响农民工高质量就业,但在影响效应上却呈现"先上升后下降"的"倒U型",当数字经济为中等发展水平时,农民工高质量就业的边际效应达到最佳。这意味着今后以数字经济为抓手推动农民工高质量就业需遵从"适度"原则,需谨防过度数字化带来的"就业无效"和"就业低效"问题。进一步异质性分析发现,数字经济对"新生代"、"高技能"、从事制造业、交通运输业和居民服务业的农民工就业质量促进作用更明显。本研究为目前国家倡导"大力发展数字经济,促进就业提质扩面"提供了实证支撑,结论对推动农民工高质量就业具有重要政策启示。     

From creating to confronting racial hierarchies: The evolving role of the US state in land policy

From systemically dispossessing Indigenous people of their territory for Euro-American settlement to routinely denying African American farmers operating loans in the 20th century, the US government's complicity in creating racial hierarchies in terms of land access is well documented. Less understood is how land policies oriented towards racial equity, namely, the Justice for Black Farmers Act (JBFA), and other initiatives that deal with land access as well as addressing racism more broadly, emerged during recent decades. In this article, we argue that such initiatives resulted from Black-led organizations and other farmer advocacy allies responding to neoliberal policy reforms. Concretely, even as these reforms destabilized farm economies, they also led to a decentralization of agricultural policy administration, which, in turn, created opportunities for community-based organizations to influence land governance. We make this argument after presenting a three-part periodization of the evolution of US land policy, starting with the emergence of racial hierarchies, then the period of partial reforms that began during the New Deal and, finally, the era of neoliberal reform.