将数学建模引入高等数学教学中的典型案例

首先阐述了将数学建模思想融入高等数学教学内容中的意义,接着从高等数学中的基本概念和基本定理出发,通过具体案例说明如何将数学建模案例融入在高等数学教学中。最后给出了根据高等数学内容选编的典型建模案例。     

Improving an outpatient clinic utilization using decision analysis-based patient scheduling

This study presents a predictive model to be used in scheduling patients in an urban outpatient clinic. The model is based upon actual patient characteristics from a physical therapy clinic within an urban health and wellness center situated in a public university. A number of reported patients' characteristics such as age, education level, distance from the clinic, historical attendance records, etc. were examined to determine if they significantly impacted the patients' missing scheduled appointments (no-shows.) Decision tree analysis was used to develop a model that assessed the likelihood of a patient's no-show, using key patient characteristics and attendance records. Such a model can be used to assist with scheduling patients in an outpatient clinic, while attempting to increase the clinic's overall utilization. Four tree growing criteria were examined to develop the model with the strongest predictive power. Predictive power of each method was assessed by using the entire dataset as well as using split sampling. The results were then compared with those of a Bayesian networks model and a neural networks model. In addition, the trade-off between the selected decision tree model's predictive power versus simplicity of the associated classification rules was examined. We also assessed the impact of various levels of overbooking on the clinic's utilization when using patients' schedules based on the predictive model.     

Modeling and Measuring Economic Reality: Reply to the Reviews

To begin with, we'd like to express our appreciation to our three commentators for their thoughtful and helpful reviews. Like the founders of the subject, we believe, and our reviewers seem to agree, that structural econometrics has the potential to enable us to develop serious working models of how different economies actually operate, and also to tell us something about the changing patterns of their growth and transformation. But both we and our reviewers agree that there is a great deal wrong with the way econometrics is practiced today.     

Moderating Role of Gender in the Relationship between Hotel Service Quality Dimensions and Tourist Satisfaction

Gender has frequently been identified as one of the key attributes and predictors in developing marketing strategy. This study examines the moderating role of gender in the relationship between hotel service quality dimensions and tourist satisfaction with hotel service delivery. The results derived from multi-group structural equation modeling via the AMOS 5.0 computer program revealed that gender significantly moderated the relationship between service quality dimensions and tourist satisfaction with hotel service delivery. Empathy and tangibles both contributed as the most important significant predictors of tourist satisfaction with hotel service delivery for male tourists as opposed to female tourists. It is statistically confirmed that men and women appear to respond to different aspects of a service encounter when making judgments about their satisfaction.     

The European refugee crisis and the natural rate of output

The European Commission follows a harmonized approach for calculating structural (potential) output for EU member states that takes into account labour as an important ingredient. This article shows how the recent huge migrants’ inflow to Europe affects trend output. Due to the fact that the immigrants immediately increase the working population but effectively do not enter the labour market, we illustrate that the potential output is potentially upward biased without any corrections. Taking Germany as an example, we find that the average medium-term potential growth rate is lower if the migration flow is modelled adequately compared to results based on the unadjusted European Commission procedure.     

Bridging the Gap Between Strategy and Performance: Using Leadership Style to Enable Structural Elements

Successful leaders create structural elements in order to achieve the performance objectives set forth by organizational strategy. Supply chain oriented structural elements are reflected in an organization's relationships, both within the firm and with supply chain partners. In this research effort, we examine how such structural elements can be created as a means through which to enhance performance. Our hypothesized model is rooted in strategy‐structure‐performance theory and integrates elements of servant leadership theory and social exchange theory to explain how building organizational commitment via servant leadership behaviors can ultimately impact performance. We use a survey method to collect data from 158 motor carriers. The results of our structural equation model support our hypotheses and serve to extend the discussion of supply chain structural elements and the role of leadership style in achieving organizational performance.     

Regional development and migration in the Lower Basin of the Zambezi River. The importance of property rights

Globalization is associated with pressures and conflicts over natural resources, with migration, urbanization and development. The analyzes these phenomena focusing the Lower Basin of the Zambezi River in Mozambique where external demand over natural resources have been associated with huge projects on transport infrastructures, coal mining and agroforestry, somehow correlated with recurring conflicts. The approach proposes and uses a regional development model that highlights the impacts of the spatial allocation of property rights on income and migration. Results show the importance of resources ownership in the spatial profile of development and social unrest.     

Random regret minimization for consumer choice modeling: Assessment of empirical evidence

This paper introduces to the field of marketing a regret-based discrete choice model for the analysis of multi-attribute consumer choices from multinomial choice sets. This random regret minimization (RRM) model, which has recently been introduced in the field of transport, forms a regret-based counterpart of the canonical random utility maximization (RUM) paradigm. This paper assesses empirical results based on 43 comparisons reported in peer-reviewed journal articles and book chapters, with the aim of finding out to what extent, when, and how RRM can form a viable addition to the consumer choice modeler's toolkit. The paper shows that RRM and hybrid RRM–RUM models outperform RUM counterparts in a majority of cases, in terms of model fit and predictive ability. Although differences in performance are quite small, the two paradigms often result in markedly different managerial implications due to considerable differences in, for example, market share forecasts.     

When does economic model type become a decisive factor in health technology appraisals? Learning from the expanding treatment options for relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis

Objectives: Specific economic model types often become de facto standard for health technology appraisal over time. Markov and discrete event simulation (DES) models were compared to investigate the impact of innovative modeling on the cost-effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Fingolimod was compared to dimethyl fumarate (DMF; in highly active [HA] RRMS), alemtuzumab (in HA RRMS) and natalizumab (in rapidly evolving severe RRMS). Comparator DMTs were chosen to reflect different dosing regimens.

Materials and methods: Markov and DES models used have been published previously. Inputs were aligned in all relevant respects, with differences in the modeling of event-triggered attributes, such as relapse-related retreatment, which is inherently difficult with a memoryless Markov approach. Outcomes were compared, with and without different attributes.

Results: All results used list prices. For fingolimod and DMF, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were comparable (Markov: £4206/quality-adjusted life year [QALY] gained versus DES: £3910/QALY gained). Deviations were observed when long-term adverse events (AEs) were incorporated in the DES (Markov: £25,412 saved/QALY lost, versus DES: £34,209 saved/QALY lost, fingolimod versus natalizumab; higher ICERs indicate greater cost-effectiveness). For fingolimod versus alemtuzumab, when relapse-triggered retreatment was included in the DES, large cost differences were observed (difference between incremental cost is £35,410 and QALY is 0.10).

Limitations: UK payer perspective, therefore societal approach was not considered. Resource utilization and utilities for both models were not derived from the subpopulations; as the focus is on model type, input limitations that apply to both models are less relevant.

Conclusions: Whilst no model can fully represent a disease, a DES allows an opportunity to include features excluded in a Markov structure. A DES may be more suitable for modeling in RRMS for health technology assessment purposes given the complexity of some DMTs. This analysis highlights the capabilities of different model structures to model event-triggered attributes.     

La gestión mecanicista de las Instituciones de Educación Superior: un estudio desde la modelación sistémica

The bureaucratic tendencies to organize work in Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) of which facilitates personnel control and the mechanical ways to measure educational content are the ones that shatter education in pieces, under the hierarchy criterion, also shattering the professor's labor. This organizational method results in an incompetent education, leaving very negative consequences for teaching development. We address this problem by using systemic modeling and Structural Equations Systems (SEM) to confirm hypotheses from scientific observation. It was proven that there was a negative impact of mechanistic management which affected teacher's development. This was proven in context in two HEIs located in Villahermosa (Tabasco, Mexico).