城镇化视角下的农村人力资本投资研究

本文在分析农村人力资本投资对城镇化的重要作用的基础上,指出了当前农村人力资本投资中存在的影响城镇化发展的种种不足.最后,在城镇化的视角下,提出了改善农村人力资本投资的建议.     

内生农业技术进步的二元经济增长模型——对“东亚奇迹”和中国经济的再解释

通过吸收内生增长理论的思想 ,修正外生农业技术进步的假设 ,本文提出了一个内生农业技术进步的二元经济增长模型 ,并以此对倍受瞩目也颇多争议的“东亚奇迹”及中国经济 ,从二元经济结构转换的角度进行了分析。本文认为 ,“东亚奇迹”是传统农业劳动力不断转向现代非农业部门的结果 ;是现代部门以资本反哺传统部门 ,推动农业技术进步 ,促进劳动力转移的结果 ;也是现代部门均衡发展 ,吸纳剩余劳动力 ,加速结构转换的结果。因此 ,虽然非农部门的全要素生产率提高不够显著 ,但劳动力结构转换仍然推动经济实现了持久的高速增长。     

Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model

This study outlines potential futures for the global economy through the 2050 with a specific focus on the countries of Asia. With underlying assumptions about population and output growth, a baseline scenario assesses the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the ensuing impacts on the climate. Under the baseline scenario, Asia's high growth leads to a strong rotation in global output and emissions by the year 2050. The analytical framework traces back the changes in temperature to economic damages – limited to the agricultural sectors. Parts of Asia are likely to see much higher dependence on food imports as a consequence of these damages. Various carbon tax scenarios are implemented to assess the potential for reducing carbon emissions. Because of the structure of their economies, Asian countries are likely to bear the greatest burden in reducing emissions in an efficient global tax scheme, but there is significant scope to ease this burden through financial transfers.     

托达罗人口流动模型的改进——基于风险升水的视角

农村劳动力的迁移决策是一个理性的经济决策行为,迁移者在做出迁移决策时不仅仅要考虑预期的城乡收入差异,理性的迁移者还会考虑到不确定性带来的效用损失,文章用一个风险升水值来度量这种效用损失,并认为应该从托达罗模型的预期收入差异中剔除这个损失额度。因而,实际预期的城乡收入差异会比托达罗模型所表述的更小,一些风险规避的迁移者可能就会因此退出迁移。     

What do professional forecasters actually predict?

This paper studies what professional forecasters predict. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into trend, business cycle, and irregular components. We examine which components are captured by professional forecasters by regressing their forecasts on the estimated components extracted from both the spectral analysis and the state space model. For both decomposition methods, we find that, in the short run, the Survey of Professional Forecasters can predict almost all of the variation in the time series due to the trend and the business cycle, but that the forecasts contain little or no significant information about the variation in the irregular component.     

Understanding organizational citizenship behavior from a cultural perspective: An empirical study within the context of hotels in Mainland China

Scholarly concerns in organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs) have increased dramatically over the past two decades. Nevertheless, there are significant issues yet to be addressed and resolved, one of which relates to the influences of cultural values on such voluntary behaviors. In view of the importance of OCB in meliorating hotel service and cultivating customer loyalty, the current study seeks to investigate a possible mechanism through which Chinese values (CVs) may function on employee citizenship behaviors within the hotels in Mainland China. The research questions focus on whether CVs have a direct impact on OCB and its verified antecedents, leader–member exchange (LMX) and employee organizational commitment (OC). Eventually, the research findings have verified the conceptual model and confirmed all the postulated linkages among the constructs under study.     

Empowerment and resident support for tourism in rural Central and Eastern Europe (CEE): the case of Pomerania,Poland

Despite empowerment being a crucial component of sustainable tourism, few scholars have quantitatively operationalized empowerment and looked at how it applies to rural societies within the post-communist European Union (EU) member states. Knowing the high priority of sustainable rural development goals within the EU, empowering residents within these post-communist societies has become a pertinent issue especially where those societies appear more reluctant to engaging in democratic ways of decision-making. In response to this gap, this study tests the cross-cultural validity of the Resident Empowerment through Tourism Scale, and then evaluates how empowerment predicts residents’ support for tourism within the municipality of Choczewo, Pomerania, Poland. Using a theoretical perspective that blends Social Exchange Theory with Weber's Theory of Formal and Substantive Rationality, these non-economic empowerment dimensions are coupled with a measure of resident perceptions of economically benefiting from tourism to see if rural residents in Choczewo, Poland, are more swayed by the economic or non-economic benefits of tourism. Results show that residents within this Central and Eastern Europe setting are more influenced by the pride and self-esteem boost associated with psychological empowerment and the perceptions of increased community cohesion (i.e. social empowerment) than the economic promises of tourism.     

Urban sprawl factors in the surface water resource basins of Istanbul

This paper presents the reasons for uncontrolled land-use changes in the water resource basins of Istanbul. These changes are evaluated with a Geographical Information System (GIS), using four Landsat (1990, 1995, 2000, 2005) satellite images. Additional spatial information about capital improvement projects (highways and the Bosporus bridges), industrial land-use decisions, land ownership, and jurisdictional boundaries is also utilized. We observe that the most critical land-use changes have occurred in places with higher accessibility, mostly in close proximity to the metropolitan city center. The literature describes large public capital improvement projects (primarily the Trans European Motorway – TEM) as the primary reason for a trend of illegal occupation of public lands; however, the TEM should not be considered as the sole reason. This study explores other possible causes for these illegal developments in the water resource basins, grouped into three broad dimensions physical, socio–economic–political, and legal. Finally, we put forward possible policy suggestions for the preservation of the limited surface water resource basins in Istanbul.     

Estimating the long-run effects of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for Galicia (Spain)

Tourism is one of the more important sectors for the economy of Galicia (northwest of Spain). The aim of our study is to quantify determinants of Galician domestic tourism demand and their impacts. Additionally, confidence intervals for these impacts are calculated by bootstrapping data. The results show that income, Eastern vacations and the celebration of the Holy Year of the Apostle Saint James have had a relevant positive impact on tourism. There is also a significant positive connection between a meteorological phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and tourism demand. On the other hand, the differential rates of inflation between Galicia and the rest of Spain and the 2008 economic crisis have had a negative effect.     

Determinants and outcome of career competencies: Perspectives of hotel managers in China

This study aims to explore the determinants and outcome of career competencies. Based on the notion that organizations and individuals have respective obligations in the career management of employees’, this study developed perceived “organizational career management’ (OCM) and “career commitment” as determinants and career satisfaction as an outcome of career competencies. Data were collected in the state-owned hotels in China, and structural equation modeling was used to test the proposed relationships. The findings indicate that both perceived OCM and career commitments have positive, direct effects on career competencies. The findings of this study may benefit both hotels and hotel employees by providing valuable implications.