The M4 Competition: Results,findings, conclusion and way forward

The M4 competition is the continuation of three previous competitions started more than 45 years ago whose purpose was to learn how to improve forecasting accuracy, and how such learning can be applied to advance the theory and practice of forecasting. The purpose of M4 was to replicate the results of the previous ones and extend them into three directions: First significantly increase the number of series, second include Machine Learning (ML) forecasting methods, and third evaluate both point forecasts and prediction intervals. The five major findings of the M4 Competitions are: 1. Out Of the 17 most accurate methods, 12 were “combinations” of mostly statistical approaches. 2. The biggest surprise was a “hybrid” approach that utilized both statistical and ML features. This method’s average sMAPE was close to 10% more accurate than the combination benchmark used to compare the submitted methods. 3. The second most accurate method was a combination of seven statistical methods and one ML one, with the weights for the averaging being calculated by a ML algorithm that was trained to minimize the forecasting. 4. The two most accurate methods also achieved an amazing success in specifying the 95% prediction intervals correctly. 5. The six pure ML methods performed poorly, with none of them being more accurate than the combination benchmark and only one being more accurate than Naïve2. This paper presents some initial results of M4, its major findings and a logical conclusion. Finally, it outlines what the authors consider to be the way forward for the field of forecasting.     

Simplified Jackknife Variance Estimates for Fuzzy Measures of Multidimensional Poverty

In this paper, we present a practical methodology for variance estimation for multi‐dimensional measures of poverty and deprivation of households and individuals, derived from sample surveys with complex designs and fairly large sample sizes. The measures considered are based on fuzzy representation of individuals' propensity to deprivation in monetary and diverse non‐monetary dimensions. We believe this to be the first original contribution for estimating standard errors for such fuzzy poverty measures. The second objective is to describe and numerically illustrate computational procedures and difficulties in producing reliable and robust estimates of sampling error for such complex statistics. We attempt to identify some of these problems and provide solutions in the context of actual situations. A detailed application based on European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions data for 19 NUTS2 regions in Spain is provided.     

企业大学的信息化建设

信息化建设工作是一项与实际应用紧密联系的系统工程,对企业大学而言,信息化建设不仅是表面上的设备和线路等硬件建设,更重要的是一种软实力建设,是一种工作方法、工作水平、工作能力的体现。信息化建设加强了,就能为全校不同权限的人员提供快捷的平台和工具,随时随地的积累教学和业务资源、获取各种数据信息,并以资源和数据为基础加强信息管理,使速度和有效性得到高度保障。     

Merit and Evaluation Models for Managers in the National Health System： An Empirical Study

The national health system （NHS） complexity increase requires a review of the managerial human resources evaluation and recruiting methods, considering that nowadays doctors need to improve not just their clinical capabilities, but also managerial competences. At this end it is important to develop performances control models and to identify appropriate results indicators, with the aim of introducing an effective doctors selection system for managerial roles. The paper considers the Italian situation and tests the current evaluation and selection methods, by analysing the literature and the existing legislation and by interviewing experts. Moreover, in order to reach an innovative model, complex organizations have been taken into account as benchmarks. Three different categories of experts have been interviewed and texted： national health care organizations managers, companies managers, and business consultants. The 137 interviewed experts have been asked about four main questions concerning the evaluation for hiring managers as chief medical director, department director, and head of complex units. The conducted research suggests four different options in order to evaluate and to select heads of complex unit for the most strategic roles. By consequence, the analysis shows that required characteristics must be managerial attitudes as well as clinical capabilities.     

“室内设计原理”课程的教学改革探讨

＂室内设计原理＂课程是室内设计方向的主干课程之一,在专业课程教学中占有重要的地位。针对＂室内设计原理＂课程的教学现状及存在的问题,提出从教学方法、教学手段及考核评价机制入手对＂室内设计原理＂课程教学改革进行探讨,以期成为室内设计方向其他专业课程教学改革的重要切入点。     

儒家“礼乐刑政”和谐治国方略及其启示

儒家"礼乐刑政,综合为治"的治国方略,为我国古代封建王朝的长治久安发挥了重要的作用。"礼治"、"乐治"、"刑治"和"政治"各具特色,蕴含着丰富的和谐智慧,为我们提供了关于道德、文化艺术、法律及行政管理等方面建设的具体经验。"综合为治"则彰显四大方略融通并举,共促和谐治世之效,对我们今天构建和谐社会具有借鉴意义。     

应用战略成本管理的对策研究

战略成本管理是一种将战略管理理论导入成本管理的一种先进成本管理理念,战略成本管理是从全局性和长远性来看待成本管理中的战略问题。美国著名学者波特的成本领先战略、差异化战略和集聚化战略理论,为企业在日益复杂的市场竞争环境下保持持久的成本竞争优势提供了理论基础。     

2＋1教学模式转变下思政课教法改革思考

思政课在高职院校的教学中与本科院校的教学特点不同,在高职院校培养“应用型人才”的目标下,2＋1教学模式的转变是整体的趋势,在2＋1教学模式下,思政课教学可以分为理论教学与实践教学两个部分,在理论教学中可以采用启发式教学法、讨论式教学法、辩论式教学法、案例式教学法、演讲式教学法、角色互挟式教学法、专题式教学法;在实践教学中可以采用实地考察法、社会调查法、工作实践法,从而提高教学的实际效果。     

计算机网络课程教学改革实践

在计算机网络课程教学中,我们采用行为引导型教学与先进实验教学相结合的方式,引导学生变注重计算机网络的知识点为计算机网络知识点的应用能力,采用多项积点制考核,根据学生的独特个体来引导他们对计算机网络的学习兴趣。     

数控加工工艺与编程课程教学体系建构

数控加工工艺与编程是应用型本科院校机械设计制造及其自动化专业的重要基础课程。而从企业对数控加工工艺与编程人才的需求能力上看,他们应具有良好的数学基础;一定的产品制造基础知识;具备数控机床的操作、日常维护等6种能力。为此,将数控加工工艺与编程能力分解成对应的支撑课程群,建构理论教学体系和实践教学体系两方面。通过教学改革收到了较好的效果,学生学习效果好,工程能力得到明显加强。