The future of the mobile phone business

One of the fastest growing technologies of our times is that of mobile phones. In this article we use the assumption that the diffusion of mobile technology, as measured by the number of active mobile accounts, follows the well known S-curve of natural growth in competition systems. The accuracy of the logistic fit is tested against actual data for the whole world, Europe, China and the GSM system. Using the produced models predictions concerning the future of mobile business are deliberated.According to these models active mobile accounts around the globe are expected to grow from 1.7 billion in 2004 to approximately 2 billion in 2008, reaching a peak penetration of 29.2%. Growth barriers, apart from the age of the potential user, are also low income and extreme poverty. Europe, early adopter of mobile technology and leader in active mobile accounts against all other regions in the world, has apparently reached a peak with almost every European, apart from the very young or very old, using a mobile phone. The mobile market in China is anticipated to exceed 500 million active accounts and may increase even further depending on the economic and social reform that is currently under way in that part of the world. GSM will most likely remain the leading mobile technology in the future as it is today.The growth process for the world, Europe, and the GSM system is almost completed and during this stage instabilities may occur before the potential emergence of a new wave of growth.     

Governance structures in R&D networks: An analysis in the European context

This paper analyses governance structures used to organize partnerships in R&D networks using two approaches: transaction costs theory and social capital theory. We argue that these theories are complementary; this explains forms of governance through the degrees of administrative (structural and safeguard mechanism) and social factors (cohesion and openness) they embody. Data was obtained from European R&D networks created through Framework Programmes which include a great number of universities, non profit institutions and firms. Findings show the variables that characterize and explain the governance forms based on the applicability of R&D networks. This study not only provides a theoretical model for analysing governance structures of these networks, but is also useful for both improving the management of networks and for fostering collaboration at an international level.     

Evolution of networks—an experimental analysis

It is the main aim of our paper to study network formation in experimental setups in discrete and continuous time. Our design is inspired by the theoretical model on network formation by Bala and Goyal (Econometrica, 68(5): 1181–1229, 2000) as well as the experiments by Callander and Plott (J. Public Econ., 89: 1469–1495, 2005) and Falk and Kosfeld (IEW Working Paper, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, No. 146, 2003). In particular, we analyze the role of star-shaped networks which are strict Nash-equilibria of the corresponding network formation game. Our experimental results show that strict Nash networks prove to be a good indicator for predicting network formation, particularly in continuous time. In explaining our results, it turns out that, among others, the complexity in coordinating on stars, the inequity aversion against unequal payoff distribution in the network, and the groups’ degrees of activity are the most important determinants for the formation of strict Nash networks.      

Competition with Congestible Networks

We analyse competition between two network providers when the quality of each network depends negatively on the number of customers connected to that network. With respect to price competition we provide a sufficient condition for the existence of a unique pure strategy Nash equilibrium. Comparative statics show that as the congestion effect gets stronger quantities will decrease and prices increase, under both Bertrand and Cournot competition. In an example with endogenous capacities it turns out that equilibrium capacities are at first increasing and then decreasing in the strength of congestion. Furthermore, capacities are higher under Cournot competition. Welfare comparisons between Bertrand and Cournot competition are unambiguous for fixed capacities, but may turn around for endogenous capacities.     

社会网络、心理资本与居民健康的城乡比较

利用中国综合调查数据(CGSS2008),从社会网络、心理资本的视角比较分析了城乡居民健康的影响因素和作用机制。教育程度对于农村居民健康的积极作用要远远大于城市居民;社会网络有助于居民健康水平的提高,但对于城乡居民的健康呈现不同的作用效应,即网络规模更有助于农村居民的健康,而网络资源总量更有助于城市居民的健康;心理资本有助于居民健康水平的提高,其中韧性因子对城乡居民的健康都具有显著的积极作用,乐观因子对农村居民的健康更有显著的积极作用,而自信因子对城市居民的健康更有促进作用。     

Lineage-based heterogeneity and cooperative behavior in rural China

This paper investigates how lineages, the commonly found organizations in rural villages of China, affect people's intra- and cross-lineage cooperative behavior. We use data from the Chinese Household Income Project Survey 2002, which exclusively contains information about the lineage structure in these villages allowing us to classify three levels of lineage-based heterogeneity. Our identification strategy relies on the exogeneity of lineage-based heterogeneity. We find evidence that people in a village with higher lineage-based heterogeneity are less likely to exhibit reciprocity behavior within lineages or contribute to the provision of public goods that are jointly shared across lineages. The estimation results remain robust to the inclusion of various control variables and additional background characteristics. Finally, we examine a number of other economic outcomes and find that more homogenous villages do better than other types of villages.     

Strategic networks and new product performance: the mediating role of ambidextrous innovation

In this study we examine the relationship between strategic networks and new product performance from the perspective of ambidextrous innovation (i.e. combining exploratory innovation and exploitative innovation) using a sample of 323 manufacturing firms in the transitional economy of China. Our empirical analyses present several interesting findings: (a) strategic networks are positively related to firms’ new product performance; (b) ambidextrous innovation has a positive effect on firms’ new product performance – that is, the combination of exploratory innovation and exploitative innovation positively affects the firm's new product performance, while the lack of balance between exploratory innovation and exploitative innovation negatively affects the firm's new product performance; and (c) ambidextrous innovation mediates the relationship between strategic networks and new product performance. Our findings provide scholars and managers with a better understanding of the key role played by the simultaneous adoption of exploratory and exploitative innovation in the relationship between strategic networks and new product performance.     

Beyond the flat rate bias: The flexibility effect in tariff choice

Flat rates are a prominent pricing scheme for telecommunications services and are often preferred by consumers although average costs would be lower in an alternative usage-based tariff. Reasons are that flat rates protect against unexpectedly high costs (insurance effect), are more likely to be chosen if actual usage is overestimated (overestimation effect), and prevent any disutility that is associated with the immediate perception of marginal costs (taximeter effect). This study complements the literature on tariff biases by highlighting that a lack of tariff flexibility is a major impediment to choosing a flat rate: empirical support for this flexibility effect is found, while, at the same time, the insurance and overestimation effect that run in favor of flat rates are confirmed. Finally, the managerial implications of the findings for the introduction of the new cost cap tariff are discussed. The hybrid cost cap tariff can combine the flexibility and the insurance property, and may, therefore, exert a cost cap bias on consumers.     

Modeling defaults of companies in multi-stage supply chain networks

The interest in supply chain networks and their analysis as complex systems is rapidly growing. The physical approach to the topic draws on the concept of heterogenous interacting agents. The interaction among agents is considered as a repeated process of orders and production. The dynamics of production in the supply chain network which we observe is nonlinear due to the random failures in processes of orders and production. We introduce an agent-based model of a supply chain network which represents in more detail the real economic environment in which firms operate. We focus on the influence of local processes on the global economic behavior of the system and study how the proposed modifications change the general properties of the model. We observe collective bankruptcies of firms, which lead to self-emerging network structures. Our results give insight into the dynamics of default processes in supply chain networks, which have important implications both for risk managers and policy makers. Based on the simulations we show that agent-based modeling is a powerful tool for optimization of supply chain networks.     

创业成长中双重网络嵌入的演化规律研究——以正泰集团和温氏集团为例

新企业在创建、存活和成长过程中,需要通过嵌入社会关系网络获得资源支持,嵌入产业网络获得产业链分工协作收益。创业网络是社会网络和产业网络的有机统一体,创业成长过程同时也是对社会网络与产业网络双重嵌入的过程。基于创业网络中信任关系从情感性信任到认知性信任再到复合信任的演进,新创企业的双重网络嵌入性关系演化呈现出以下规律性:一是由社会网络嵌入向社会网络和产业网络双重嵌入演化;二是由"交易性嵌入"方式向"关系性嵌入"方式演化;三是由双重网络分离式嵌入向叠加式嵌入演化。新创企业双重网络嵌入演化对创业成长有促进作用,但同时也会形成"创业网络经营成本",政府需要对此加以重视。