Why persistent high inflation impedes growth? An empirical assessment of threshold level of inflation for India

In the policy debate on growth–inflation trade-off and the role of monetary policy in managing the trade-off in the short-run, theoretical and empirical research suggests the presence of a country specific threshold level of inflation. Empirical findings of this paper suggest that for India the threshold level of inflation could be around 6%. The inflation target for monetary policy may have to be somewhat lower than the growth maximizing threshold, since any positive inflation could be a risk to inclusive and sustainable growth objective.     

京港沪三地服务业引资政策建议——基于影响因素实证分析

目前国内的服务业引资研究主要集中在整个国家层面或单个城市,很少分地区对影响因素进行研究,选取三个城市即较具代表性且数据获得性较高的香港、北京、上海对引资影响因子进行研究及比较,分地区来研究服务业利用外商直接投资的影响因素。各地应该提高服务业开放程度,进一步使服务业市场化,提高人力资本存量。而第一、二产业劳动增长率与服务业引资呈负相关关系,各地应合理分配资源有侧重且协调发展好各个产业。     

Social Entrepreneurship in China: Driving Institutional Change

In the aftermath of the Great Recession, the concern with exclusionary and unethical business practices has led to the growing popularity of social entrepreneurship, which focuses on the creation of social value, not wealth. In this article, I reflect on social entrepreneurship in China, a unique context given the strong communist party leadership and the transition to a market economy. To begin, I discuss the legal and political framework for social entrepreneurship in China, followed by an overview of the sector’s characteristics, including age, size, social issues emphasized, leader characteristics, and the role of women. Next, I provide examples of three social enterprises in China that illustrate the diverse possibilities for this sector as a force for social and institutional change. I conclude with some suggestions for strengthening China’s social enterprise ecosystem.     

Modeling green vehicle adoption: An integrated approach for policy evaluation

This article employs an integrated discrete-continuous car ownership model to jointly forecast households’ future preferences on vehicle type, quantity and use, and to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The model system is estimated on a dataset collected from a web-based stated preference survey conducted in Maryland in 2014. The data contain vehicle purchase decisions and sociodemographic information of 456 households who were requested to state their future preferences over a 9-year period (2014–2022). In each time period, a respondent is faced to four alternatives that include the current vehicle, a new gasoline vehicle, a new hybrid electric vehicle, and a new battery electric vehicle. Intertemporal choices between conventional and “green” vehicles such as hybrid and electric cars capture dynamics in vehicle purchase decisions. Short run and medium-long run situations were predicted and compared based on the first 4-year data and the entire 9-year data of the dynamic panel. Vehicle GHG emissions were calculated correspondingly. We find the introduction of “green” vehicles makes a positive impact on car ownership and use, especially in a medium-long run. Two “green” taxation policies, gasoline tax and ownership tax, were proposed and their impact on vehicle use and emission reductions was evaluated. Results indicate that: (a) gasoline tax is a more effective way to reduce vehicle miles traveled and GHG emissions and (b) gasoline tax makes a higher impact on car use and emission reductions in the medium-long run, while ownership tax makes a higher impact in the short run.     

Loss aversion and the asymmetric transmission of monetary policy

There is widespread evidence that monetary policy exerts asymmetric effects on output over contractions and expansions in economic activity, while price responses display no sizeable asymmetry. To rationalize these facts we develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where households’ utility depends on consumption deviations from a reference level below which loss aversion is displayed. State-dependent degrees of real rigidity and elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption generate competing effects on output and inflation. Contractions face the Central Bank with higher responsiveness of output to interest rate changes, as well as a flatter aggregate supply schedule.     

美国货币政策对中国经济动态冲击的实证研究

本文对美国货币政策对我国实体经济的冲击效应进行了实证检验,结构化动态冲击分析表明,美国货币政策正向冲击(1)短期内会引起中国总产出、出口总额的增加,长期中则会导致中国总产出、出口总额的下降;(2)短期内会造成中国进口总额的上升,长期中最终会对中国进口总额产生负向冲击;(3)方差分解结果显示,美国货币政策的正向冲击对中国出口总额的影响最大。(4)美国货币政策对中国实体经济影响程度相对于国内部分学者的结论较小。     

汽车传动轴弯曲振动分析

商用车传动轴是商用车传动系统中的重要部件,因其振动频率低、刚度小,加上万向节附加力矩,使得传动轴的弯曲振动问题成为影响商用车振动和噪声的重要方面。本文对某商用车传动轴的弯曲振动问题进行了动力学仿真分析,对传动系统的隔振性能进行了分析,总结出中间支撑的刚度对整个转动系的隔振性能的影响规律,对于今后设计具有一定借鉴作用。     

2011-2012年中国宏观经济分析与预测——复苏放缓、风险上扬与结构刚性冲击下的中国宏观经济

本文通过全面总结2011年中国宏观经济的3大表现,利用中国人民大学宏观经济预测模型,指出2012年中国将面临外部经济放缓、内部房地产市场深度调整、泡沫经济逆转以及金融风险加剧的冲击,但在结构刚性的约束下,政府将全面转变政策定位,从而保证中国经济在加速回落中实现反弹,全年经济增长呈现“前低后缓”的模式.     

How broad-based is broad-based black economic empowerment?

Common perceptions about broad-based black economic empowerment (BBBEE) have been that it is nothing more than a tool for the already affluent to access further wealth and has limited potential to address the economic exclusion of the most marginalised. An analysis was conducted of data on black economic empowerment (BEE) deals between 2004 and 2009. The findings demonstrate that although the elite continue to benefit from deals, broad-based beneficiaries, particularly employees and women, are also beginning to benefit to some extent. This suggests that empowerment policies have some potential to promote private sector involvement in addressing the state's social transformation agenda. However, a closer analysis of the BEE transactions shows that the BEE landscape is far more complex and nuanced than commonly thought. Further research is necessary to understand the real impacts of BEE on the ground.     

Perfectly competitive bilateral exchange without discounting

In a random-matching economy of traders who maximize cumulative consumption (overtaking criterion), the stationary, Markov, Bayesian-perfect equilibrium is studied. At such equilibrium, two results hold: (1) perfect substitutability between current and future consumption implies a no-surplus condition; and (2) by the no-surplus condition, there is a nominal price at which all trades must occur. These results strengthen the seminal results of Ostroy (1973) regarding monetary bilateral exchange in two ways: the incentive compatibility of the equilibrium trading pattern is established and a less roundabout trading pattern enhances welfare by enabling consumption to occur more frequently.