A Gendered Model of the Peasant Household: Time poverty and Farm Production in Rural Mozambique

Using insights from a case study on the allocation of labor in subsistence households in Mozambique, this study develops a conceptual framework for examining linkages between time poverty and farm production. An unexpected event such as a health crisis increases the demand for labor provided by women, thus making them more time poor. The model and numerical simulations show that a deterioration in a woman's time constraint will have an adverse effect on agricultural output of the household. This occurs because most women respond to an increase in household work by reducing their work hours on the farm and by reducing their leisure time. The latter outcome is expected to have a negative effect on women's physical and mental health, which will then cause a decline in their productivity on the farm.     

Identifying Discretionary Fiscal Policy Reactions with Real‐Time Data

We propose a method of identifying discretionary fiscal policy reactions using real‐time data. Automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy is contingent on the information that policy makers have in real time. We can compute a real‐time measurement error by comparing the first release of GDP data with later revisions. Discretionary fiscal policy is influenced by this measurement error, whereas automatic fiscal policy is not. We use this identification approach to test the central identifying assumption of Blanchard and Perotti’s (2002) seminal structural vector autoregression (VAR). According to this assumption, fiscal policy makers do not react to GDP developments contemporaneously in a discretionary fashion. We find that government expenditure is adjusted upward if GDP growth in real time is lower than true GDP. This suggests that fiscal policy makers use short‐term funds to buy goods and services in response to their perception of GDP dynamics.     

全货运航空公司单分配严格枢纽航线网络优化设计

针对全货运航空公司，研究其货运航线网络的构建问题。基于单分配严格枢纽航线网络，对传统模型进行改进。以各航线上货物的委托运输成本和自有机队的运输成本，取代传统的单位运输成本和折扣因子，考虑枢纽点的中转成本和载运率对路径选择的影响。结合航空货运夜航的特征考虑各机队夜间可用时间的限制，以总成本最小为目标，构建数学模型，采用LINGO优化软件求解，验证模型的有效性，为全货运航空公司构建货运航线网络提供参考。     

Towards the use of chronological age in research – A cautionary comment

In recent years, this journal published several articles that used chronological age in their models to distinguish customer behavior between younger and older people. While all these articles are in line with the growing importance of age-related research, chronological age is not discriminant when behavior and motivations enter the fray. By taking two recent articles in this journal as examples, this short note calls for a cautious application of chronological age and highlights other age-related constructs for research. The note ends with practical implications and avenues for further research in age-related projects.     

A MILP model for planning the trips of dynamic positioned tankers with variable travel time

The transportation of the crude oil produced in offshore oilfields to onshore terminals is performed by vessels, known as shuttle tankers. Scheduling shuttle-tanker operations entails solving complex problems to ensure a timely offloading of the platforms, taking into account several logistics and inventory constraints. This work proposes a new MILP formulation that advances previous works by considering variable travel time between platforms and terminals. The combination of the MILP formulation with an optimization solver constitutes a decision-support tool to aid engineers reach optimal decisions for a planning horizon. To handle large-scale instances, rolling-horizon and relax-and-fix strategies are proposed.     

European farmers and participatory rural appraisal: A systematic literature review on experiences to optimize rural development

Farmers are those who daily supervise and manage rural areas, but still their collaborations with those institutions entitled to decide the transformation of these territories are not managed properly. The experiences of participatory processes with the involvement of farmers are analyzed in many agricultural studies. A systematic review has allowed us to analyse experiences related to 35 participation paths aimed at rural regions’ development. The analysis has been made on the basis of 14 variables describing the path followed and its purpose, the agricultural holding involved and the areas surveyed.The work has the objectives to identify some strengths and weaknesses in the involvement of farmers in decision-making and the strengths and weaknesses of the processes themselves. The review has shown that too often in participatory processes farmers are considered only as a source of information to be used by researchers rather than as active participants in the choices for the protection, management and transformation of the rural territory. An effective participatory rural appraisal requires greater empowerment of farmers. In general, compared to the methods and tools used, farmers are wary of paths that are too complex and prefer the use of low-tech tools. This result can be attributed to the farmers’ demand of direct contact with the researchers to build trust and also to the average age of European farmers, which is pretty high.In participation contexts, it is not possible to establish standardized methods and tools, because each process should be tailored for the community that expresses it. Nevertheless, the work has highlighted the need to establish some minimum principles to avoid considering unsuccessful some participation paths which, in reality, have been only scarcely participated. In the work, these principles have been presented through the development of key questions, to which those who design the path for an effective engagement of agricultural stakeholder must respond: representativeness, empowerment, empirical knowledge, relationships, group type, numerosity and involvement stage.     

Book reviews

Abstract

This article examines the cultural field of fitness as a network of producers, consumers, products and practices that has developed around the care of the body through physical exercise. Drawing on a thematic text analysis of US exercise manuals, the paper focuses on how the commercial fitness field naturalizes associations between physical exercise and leisure, and between leisure and self‐work. In particular, the analysis examines three themes and their relevance to our broader understanding of leisure in contemporary consumer society: the management of leisure time; the use of leisure for self‐investment strategies; and the promotion of consumption as the framework for leisure and an accompanying notion of pleasure. The fitness field casts light on how leisure more generally is constructed as a sphere of obligations to make productive use of one’s time, to improve one’s body and self, and to do so through the wares of the consumer marketplace. The cultural imaginary of leisure as a time of freedom from work and responsibility is thus recast, in an age of individualization, as a time of freedom to accomplish the work of self‐production.     

When was the U.S. housing downturn predictable? A comparison of univariate forecasting methods

This paper uses three classes of univariate time series techniques (ARIMA type models, switching regression models, and state-space/structural time series models) to forecast, on an ex post basis, the downturn in U.S. housing prices starting around 2006. The performance of the techniques is compared within each class and across classes by out-of-sample forecasts for a number of different forecast points prior to and during the downturn. Most forecasting models are able to predict a downturn in future home prices by mid 2006. Some state-space models can predict an impending downturn as early as June 2005. State-space/structural time series models tend to produce the most accurate forecasts, although they are not necessarily the models with the best in-sample fit.     

对新《保险法》理赔程序与时限法律规制的研究

新《保险法》关于理赔程序和时限的法律规制，体现了公平理赔、尽速理赔的价值目标，对解决理赔难问题发挥了重要作用，但仍存在与保险理赔实践不够契合、法律责任设置不完善等问题。本文从分析新《保险法》理赔程序与时限的相关规定人手，将其与保险理赔实践进行对比，并研究违反程序与时限的法律后果，最后对如何进一步完善相关规定、增强法律的执行效果提出了建议。     

浅述交通工程基础建设招投标中资金时间价值对工程费用的影响

本文作者分析了在当前交通工程基础建设招投标中选择不同招标方案,对工程费用的影响,将资金时间价值观引入工程建设计量当中,分别从业主角度、承包商的角度出发对招投标的选择做出了初步分析。