Probability theory in fuzzy sample spaces

This paper tries to develop a neat and comprehensive probability theory for sample spaces where the events are fuzzy subsets of The investigations are focussed on the discussion how to equip those sample spaces with suitable -algebras and metrics. In the end we can point out a unified concept of random elements in the sample spaces under consideration which is linked with compatible metrics to express random errors. The result is supported by presenting a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem and a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for these kinds of random elements, formulated simultaneously w.r.t. the selected metrics. As a by-product the line of reasoning, which is followed within the paper, enables us to generalize as well as to bring together already known results and concepts from literature.Acknowledgement. The author would like to thank the participants of the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory for the intensive discussion of the paper. Especially he is indebted to Professors Diamond and Höhle whose remarks have helped to get deeper insights into the subject. Additionally, the author is grateful to one anonymous referee for careful reading and valuable proposals which have led to an improvement of the first draft.This paper was presented at the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory, Linz, Austria, February 5–9, 2002.     

综合物流企业基于J2EE的信息系统设计及实现

试用J2EE平台构建综合物流企业管理信息系统,使其具有灵活性、可伸缩性,更适应网络环境。     

B2C电子商务物流配送中心选址模型研究

分析了B2C电子商务的发展趋势、发展瓶颈即物流配送成本,为优化物流成本,构建了基于不同路段运输单价不同的最优运输费用的物流配送中心选址模型.     

翻译教学中异域文化的导入

翻译难 ,难就难在文化背景知识的理解与翻译上。翻译问题不单单是个语言问题 ,在很大程度上 ,它与文化因素、背景知识有着密切关系 ,受着它们的影响和制约。一般来说 ,一种语言中的纯语言障碍可以比较容易地在另一种语言中得到克服 ,但要克服文化上的差异及其在语言上的反映则比较困难。因此 ,人们对翻译教学过程中异域文化导入的重要性认识已成为一个不容争议的论题。     

中国及各经济区工业企业效率的实证研究

文章利用数据包络分析（DEA）方法，对1998—2003年我国全国及各经济区工业企业的效率水平进行了实证研究。结果发现，这几年我国工业企业发展基本健康，但缺乏突破，东部地区的工业企业效率基本无变化，东北地区、西部地区的工业企业效率有所改进，中部地区情况有所恶化。进一步分析认为，中西部地区的工业企业均存在获利能力差的问题，其中，中部地区的工业企业还存在投入结构不合理的问题。     

论在中国B2C发展的若干问题

我国电子商务的环境在不断改善,接受网上购物方式的消费者越来越多.但2001年中国B2C并没有表现出太多令人欣喜之处,甚至部分曾经领先的电子商务网站不得不面对生死存亡的抉择.造成这种现状的原因不仅仅是电子商务整体的一些原因,也包括一些影响B2C发展的特有原因.如市场发育问题、互联网的环境和条件问题、信用制度完善的问题、物流配送问题、立法问题、具体经营问题等.这些瓶颈若不能得到合理的解决,对于电子商务发展的影响将会是巨大的.     

Efficient markets and Bayes’ rule

Summary. A series of financial anomalies motivated the development of new theories that modify the rational expectations ideal. Two possibilities have been systematically explored. The literature on behavioral finance relaxes the assumption that agents form beliefs according to the laws of probability and assume, instead, that simpler heuristic rules are used. Another stream of the literature assumes that agents process information according to Bayes rule, but do not posses sufficient information to know the true data generating process. In this paper, Bayesian and Behavioral agents coexist and trade in a standard dynamic asset pricing model. A long-standing conjecture is demonstrated. It is shown that, under suitable assumptions, Bayesian agents drive Behavioral, non-Bayesian agents out of the market. Hence, asset prices are eventually determined under the Bayesian paradigm.Received: 3 June 2004, Revised: 17 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D83.Preliminary versions have circulated under the titles Markets Favor Bayesian Models and Market Selection of Empirical Models under Limited Information. I thank Larry Blume, David Easley, Larry Epstein, Armando Gomes, Bruce Hansen, Lars Hansen, Richard Kihlstrom, Grace Koo, George Mailath, Werner Ploberger, Andrew Postlewaite and Shakeeb Khan for useful comments. I also thank participants at the NBER GE meetings, Evolutionary Finance conference in Zurich, Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics, the Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada, the theory seminar at Brown, Chicago, Harvard-MIT, Minnesota, Penn and Wisconsin. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Science Foundation Grant SES 0109650.     

黄龙洞旅游开发对洞内生态环境和人的影响研究

通过对黄龙洞年内不同季节定点测定，同时与对旅游影响还不大的龙王洞对比测定，作者发现黄龙滑滑内空气CO2浓度的明显变化主要受客流量的影响。旅游旺季和黄金周客流量急剧增长带来的洞内空气CO2浓度大幅度增长，有利于岩溶作用，但洞内黑暗、高湿、低温的生态环境，对洞内工作人员身体健康有害。洞穴内岩溶景观的变化，主要受漫长的自然岩溶过程的影响，与洞内开发旅游活动的关系不大，但与洞顶山地植被保护状况有密切关系。     

Endogenous lifetime and economic growth

Endogenous mortality is introduced in a two-period overlapping generations model: probability of surviving from the first period to the next depends upon health capital that is augmented through public investment. High mortality societies do not grow fast since shorter lifespans discourage savings; development traps are possible. Productivity differences across nations result in persistent differences in capital-output ratios and relatively larger gaps in income and mortality. High mortality also reduces returns on education, where risks are undiversifiable. When human capital drives economic growth, countries differing in health capital do not converge to similar living standards, ‘threshold effects’ may also result.     

Norwegian Emissions of CO2 1987–1994 A Study of Some Effects of the CO2 Tax

Several countries have introduced taxes on fossil fuels with the aim of reducing atmospheric emissions, partly because of local environmental goals (SO₂, NO_x) and partly to participate in a global effort to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. Many macroeconomic studies, based on both global and national models, have been made of how emissions can be reduced with the help of taxes and the consequent reduction in GDP following the introduction of such taxes. Norway has had a CO₂ tax for five years, thereby providing a unique opportunity to evaluate the effects of this tax on emissions. The paper provides a counterfactual analysis of energy consumption and emissions if no CO₂ taxes had been introduced, compared with the actual situation in which such taxes exist. The effect of a CO₂ tax on oil consumption, and thus CO₂ emissions is studied on the basis of partial economic models for various sectors of the Norwegian economy. The study indicates that the CO₂ tax has had an impact on CO₂ emissions in Norway.