Water quality and cottage prices in Ontario

We use hedonic analysis to show that water clarity has a significant effect on lakefront property values in the Near North Ontario, Canada. In this study, water clarity is measured by Secchi disc reading. Based on two different dependent variables; sales price and sales price per square foot, and the estimation of linear, log–linear and log–log models, we find that water clarity does matter to lakefront property buyers in the Near North, Ontario. In particular, our results indicate that buyers are willing to pay about 2% more for each 1-foot increase in water clarity or Secchi depth. This finding is consistent across all of our specifications.     

人工智能法律人格赋予之必要性辨析

“自主性”并非决定法律人格赋予的本质属性,“自主性”的人工智能与人类也不具平等性, 人工智能“自主性”与法律人格不可通约,这是讨论的前提。肯定说所引证的论据未臻成熟,法律人格 的制度价值仅在责任承担,可以按照“尚能”与“不再”的关系完善责任制度,而非赋予法律人格。否定 说虽主张无须赋予法律人格,但立法应对人工智能“近人性”做出制度回应,一方面“近人性”是人类情 感的投射,立法应摒弃过度“近人化”思维,另一方面当突破公序良俗对待人工智能时,人类行为应予 规制,以守护人类共同价值。     

Differences in travel objectives between first‐time and repeat tourists: An empirical analysis for the Kansai area in Japan

This study investigates the differences in travel objectives between first‐time and repeat tourists. We conduct a questionnaire survey of travel agencies, which asked about specific tour plan for target tourists, their experiences and travel objectives in the Kansai area in Japan. We estimate a logit model for the relationship between travel objectives and visiting experiences. The results indicate that the first‐time tourists' main objective is to enjoy looking around sightseeing spots, while the repeat tourists' objective is simply to enjoy the stay, including the hotel visit and participating in events. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short Holds,the Distributions of First and Second Sales,and Bias in the Repeat-Sales Price Index

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics -     

Frequency of Transaction and House Price Modeling

This article examines the characteristics and price behavior of repeatedly transacted properties. Using data from four U.S. counties, we estimate hedonic price models of properties grouped by transaction frequency, and compare estimated standard deviations and estimated appreciation rates by group.For each of four counties studied, we find that estimated house price appreciation is systematically higher among properties that transact more frequently. One possible explanation for this result is that purchasers make property improvements that are not adequately reflected in the available data.We also find that estimated standard deviations of the disturbance term show a marked decrease as the frequency of transaction increases. Since frequently transacting properties are not found to be systematically more homogeneous than seldomly transacting properties, we do not attribute this to any increase in homogeneity for frequently transacting properties, but rather to the length of time elapsed between transactions of properties.The findings of this article suggest that repeat-sales price models may need to be adjusted to account for cross-sectional variation in transaction probabilities---that is, the selectivity of the subsample of properties that transacted (or transacted repeatedly) during any finite study period.     

The Choice of Methodology for Computing Housing Price Indexes: Comparisons of Temporal Aggregation and Sample Definition

Housing transactions are executed and recorded daily, but are routinely pooled into longer time periods for the measurement and analysis of housing price trends. We utilize an unusually rich data set, covering essentially all arm's length housing sales in Sweden for a dozen years, in an attempt to understand the effect of temporal aggregation upon estimates of housing prices and their volatilities. This rich data set also provides a unique opportunity to compare the results using the conventional weighted repeat sales model (WRS) to those based on a research strategy which incorporates all available information on house sales. The results indicate the clear importance of temporal disaggregation in the estimation of housing prices and volatilities—regardless of the model employed.The appropriately disaggregated model is then used as a benchmark to compare estimates of the course of housing prices produced by the two models during the twelve year period 1981–1993. These results indicate that much of the difference between estimates of price movements can be attributed to the data limitations which are inherent in the repeat sales approach. The results, thus, suggest caution in the interpretation of government-produced price indices or those produced by private firms based on the repeated sales model.     

Estimating average economic growth in time series data with persistency

This paper studies estimation of average economic growth in time series models with persistency. In particular, a joint estimation of the trend coefficient and the autoregressive parameter is considered. An analysis on the proposed estimator is provided. Our analysis is also extended to the case with general disturbance distributions. A nonlinear M estimator and a class of partially adaptive M estimators which adapt themselves with respect to a measure of the tailthickness are considered. The joint estimator and its partially adapted version are compared with several conventional estimators. Monte Carlo experiments indicate that the proposed estimators have good finite sample performance. We use the proposed estimation procedure to estimate the growth rates for real GNP and consumer price index in 40 countries.     

To the Water’s Edge,and Beyond: Effects of Shore Protection Projects on Beach Development

The effects on real estate development of shore-protection efforts that lower erosion rates and storm hazards are both controversial and difficult to detect. A simple theoretical model indicates that shore protection is likely to tilt development from areas a few hundred feet inland toward beachfront property. A modified repeat-sale house price index is used to measure price appreciation rates to the waters edge. We are able to formulate an extremely sensitive empirical test for a tilt in rates of house-price appreciation implied by a tilt in development. Surprisingly, we find no significant evidence that shore-protection efforts have produced additional beachfront development in the Florida counties studied. The method used in this article is quite general and could be used in a number of applications where an environmental effect impacts real estate differentially over space.     

Marketing visitor attractions: a segmentation study

This research revisits issues related to the travel behaviours of first‐time versus repeat visitors to a destination, with a special focus on the impact that the repeat visitor segment has upon the paid‐attraction sector. Healthy attractions are critically important to the success of a destination, but as this research notes, attractions have difficulty drawing guests in a repeat visitors‐dominated market. Implications that should be of value to marketers and attraction management in any maturing tourism destination are discussed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations

We investigate whether expectations that are not fully rational have the potential to explain the evolution of house prices and the price-to-rent ratio in the United States. First, a stylized asset-pricing model solved under rational expectations is used to derive a fundamental value for house prices and the price–rent ratio. Although the model can explain the sample average of the price–rent ratio, it does not generate the large and persistent fluctuations observed in the data. Then, we consider a rational bubble solution, an extrapolative expectations solution and a near rational bubble solution. In this last solution agents extrapolate the future from the latest realizations and the degree of extrapolation is stronger in good times than in bad times, generating waves of over-optimism. We show that under this solution the model not only is able to match key moments of the data but can also replicate the run up in the U.S. house prices observed over the 2000–2006 period and the subsequent sharp downturn.