Suspending disbelief: Influencing engagement in scenarios of forest futures

Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that informs decision-making in contexts of highly uncertain future conditions. Scenario-based studies are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. Participants' willingness to suspend disbelief in possible futures is an integral component of scenario-based studies, essential for considering alternative future scenarios, yet little is known about the factors that affect it. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.This article explores the factors that influenced the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise about the future of Canada's forests. Participants differed in their abilities to suspend disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Elements of the project design and implementation influenced participants' abilities to engage the scenarios. The results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible - and sustainable - futures.     

网络经济下信息欺诈现象的经济学分析

信息欺诈问题是制约网络经济发展的重要瓶颈,网络经营者向消费者传递虚假信息导致消费者受到损失是亟待解决的问题.应从经济学的角度通过静态博弈模型对网络经济中信息传递的真伪选择进行分析,并对如何减少虚假信息的发布提出解决对策.     

Input-output models, directed graphs and flows in networks

This article demonstrates that a dual pair of input-output price and quantity models, taken together, constitutes a composite network flow model. The network flow model has become a dominant analytical tool within the fields of operations analysis and electrical engineering, and the aim of the article is to enable input-output users within non-standard applications to take advantage of the large body of literature within these disciplines. Through a simple example it is shown that the solution of a dual pair of input-output models is a special case of the general problem of finding a minimum cost circulation in a transportation network. Second, it is shown that the common method of determining quantities and prices in input-output models is identical to the classical node method for determination of currents and voltages in an electrical network. The theory of transportation networks offers well developed methods for analysis of capacity constraints on the network flows, while the theory of electrical networks supplies methods for analysis of models with price sensitivities and for dynamic analysis. In addition, the elegant symmetry of currents and voltages in electrical networks contributes significantly to a better understanding of the logical relationship between price and quantity models.     

油浸式变压器故障在线诊断方法研究

根据各溶解气体的在线监测数据,采用灰色GM（1,1）和PNN融合技术进行在线故障诊断．先通过GM（1,1）预测模型预测未来时刻变压器中矿物绝缘油在电和热的作用下,分解产生的氢、甲烷、乙烷、乙烯及乙炔5种气体溶解浓度,并将预测结果作为概率神经网络故障诊断的输入利用PNN进行变压器故障诊断．实例表明,该方法能够诊断变压器在未来时刻的绝缘状况,并能满足工程实际需要．     

合同的形式瑕疵及其补正——《合同法》第36条的解释与完善

我国《合同法》第36条应该解释为:法定或约定形式是合同的特别成立要件。合同的形式瑕疵可以因履行而补正,但《合同法》第36条对于合同义务的履行程度、形式瑕疵补正是否有溯及力以及继续性合同形式瑕疵补正的效力等问题缺乏完备的规定,对于约定形式的欠缺没有予以特殊处理。对此,应当予以完善。     

论中英文中的网络词语

计算机技术的开发与互联网技术的广泛应用,对人类社会和语言都产生了深刻的影响。20世纪90年代以来,虚拟环境中的言语行为研究,已经成为心理学和语言学研究中的一个新的学术亮点,受到学术界普遍的关注。本文主要针对目前在互联网上出现的中英文网络词语进行了研究和探讨。     

对当前我国大学生就业缺口的经济学分析

从我国高等教育的需求与供给出发，分析了大学生就业缺口的形成机制，指出了大学生就业缺口是高等教育的社会成本与个人成本之间、社会收益与个人收益之间扭曲的结果，只有通过教育系统内部和外部的全面调整，才能真正实现教育与社会发展的良性互动。     

The U.S. tourists’ perceptions of destination China over two transformative periods

This study conducted a textual analysis of The New York Times to examine the U.S. tourists’ perceived image of China as a destination by comparing the two periods of January 1980–May 1989 and January 2005–December 2015. The study found a drastic shift of the U.S. tourists’ affective image of China as a destination from being favorable and positive in the early period to being unfavorable and negative in the recent period. The affective image was characterized by the two domains of Exoticism and Sense of Superiority in the 1980s, as compared to the two domains of Ordinary and Negative National Image in the recent 10 years. Paradoxically, such a sentimental shift on the part of the U.S. tourists occurred while their perception of China’s destination attributes either did not change or grew more positive.     

Network analysis of the Caucasus’ image

Destination image is influenced by many factors, including destination promotion materials, the mass media as a general familiarity agent, the perceivers’ own characteristics and even researchers’ methodological choices. To isolate and minimize the impact of research on destination image, different qualitative and quantitative designs and analysis techniques have been utilized. However, no previous study utilized the network analysis technique, which may be useful to reveal a picture of destination image with the interconnections and hidden dynamisms of dimensions as well as its correlates. The present study applies this technique on qualitative data from an online sample of Americans on their perceptions of a relatively remote and unfamiliar destination, the Caucasus region, in order to hone in on the dramatic impact of mass media on destination image. Results revealed networks of meanings with residue of mass media messages about Boston bombing, with some differences among different genders and education levels.     

On the fairness of airlines’ ticket pricing as a result of revenue management techniques

Pricing and availability of tickets have always been a source of confusion for customers in transportation industries. What is the best time to buy tickets? Why passengers taking the same flight might pay significantly different prices for the same seat? Why round trip tickets between two cities sometimes become cheaper than the one-way flights between them? Is it fair to buy a ticket for an itinerary cheaper than a ticket for just a part of it? These observations make customers wonder why they pay higher prices for shorter flights. In this paper, we study the airlines’ revenue management systems and explain some of these pricing schemes in travel industries. We develop a simulator to study the decision making process of network revenue management and use a numerical study to explore these questions and address some explanations for them. We relate these observations to the revenue management measurements such as the bid price or the adjustment cost and show how the dynamic of the network get influenced by these measures that eventually results in unusual pricing. We explain how a zero or small bid price of a specific leg may cause the price of an itinerary be cheaper than one segment of it and that the small bid price is caused by low demand in comparison to the available capacity. We exhibit network revenue management system and show the above issues for a small network.