The macroeconomics of the labor market: three fundamental views

We distinguish and assess three fundamental views of the labor market regarding the movements in unemployment: (1) the frictionless equilibrium view; (2) the chain reaction theory, or prolonged adjustment view; and (3) the hysteresis view. While the frictionless view implies a clear compartmentalization between the short- and long-run, the hysteresis view implies that all the short-run fluctuations automatically turn into long-run changes in the unemployment rate. We assert the problems faced by these conceptions in explaining the diversity of labor market experiences across the OECD labor markets. We argue that the prolonged adjustment view can overcome these problems since it implies that the short, medium, and long-runs are interrelated, merging with one another along an intertemporal continuum.

后危机时代外部冲击对我国工业品价格指数的动态传导及结构特征分析

基于SVAR模型,考量次贷危机前后外部冲击对工业品价格指数的动态影响及结构性传导。结果表明：国际金融危机爆发以来,外部冲击对我国工业品价格指数的影响呈现增强趋势,并且国际大宗商品价格冲击是最重要因素;在结构特征上,外部冲击效应具有不完全性,对生产资料PPI的影响较大,对生活资料PPI的影响较小,显示外部冲击效应的传导具有不完全性,黏滞在生产流通领域不能顺利传导至消费领域。     

新能源汽车财务与非财务消息对股市影响的多维特征及差异

新能源汽车股市是投资者对公司财务绩效、政策导向、技术水平和发展前景等多方面因素综合反应的结果。将新能源汽车产业相关消息分为"财务"和"非财务"消息,应用事件研究法从"敏感性""、强弱性"和"持续性"三个维度分析了财务与非财务类消息对于新能源汽车股市影响的差异性。结果表明,新能源汽车非财务类消息对于股市表现影响的强度和持续性相对更显著。新能源汽车非财务类消息中的政策、市场消息对于股市表现影响的敏感性要高于技术消息,政策、技术消息对于股市表现影响的强度明显高于市场消息,技术消息对于股市表现影响的持续性明显优于政策和市场类消息。新能源汽车产业的政策扶持不应仅仅关注现阶段新能源汽车制造商的财务指标,更应高度关注新能源汽车制造商的创新能力。制造商要进一步加大新能源汽车的研发投入,通过资本市场的合理融资促进新能源汽车技术创新和长期盈利能力提升。     

Inflation persistence and exchange rate regime: Implications for dynamic adjustment to shocks in a small open economy

The paper examines implications of inflation persistence for business cycle dynamics following terms of trade shock in a small oil producing economy, under inflation targeting and exchange rate targeting regimes. It is shown that due to the ‘Walters critique’ effect, the country’s adjustment paths are slow and cyclical if there is a significant backward-looking element in the inflation dynamics and the exchange rate is fixed. It is also shown that such cyclical adjustment paths are moderated if there is a high proportion of forward-looking price setters in the economy, so that when the Phillips curve becomes completely forward-looking cyclicality in adjustment paths disappears and the response of the real exchange rate becomes hump-shaped. In contrast, with an independent monetary policy, irrespective of the degree of inflation persistence, flexible exchange rate allows to escape severe cycles, which results in a smooth response of the real exchange rate.     

Data revisions to German national accounts: Are initial releases good nowcasts?

Data revisions to national accounts pose a serious challenge to policy decision making. Well-behaved revisions should be unbiased, small, and unpredictable. This article shows that revisions to German national accounts are biased, large, and predictable. Moreover, with use of filtering techniques designed to process data subject to revisions, the real-time forecasting performance of initial releases can be increased by up to 23%. For total real GDP growth, however, the initial release is an optimal forecast. Yet, given the results for disaggregated variables, the averaging out of biases and inefficiencies at the aggregate GDP level appears to be good luck rather than good forecasting.     

危机冲击与中国贸易“超调式”震荡的经验分析

从总量层面、贸易国别层面以及BEC产品类别层面,对本轮全球金融危机冲击下中国进、出口贸易的波动情况进行了分析。结果表明,中国进、出口贸易不仅在总量层面上表现出十分显著的"超调式"震荡特征,而且"超调式"震荡特征有着显著的贸易国别差异性和产品类别差异性。综合分析后发现,本轮危机冲击下中国进、出口贸易的"超调式"震荡与当代国际分工的演进以及中国在全球分工中的定位有关。据此得到启示:一方面,不应过分夸大贸易波动可能引发的风险进而转向所谓"内需主导型"发展模式,另一方面,缓解危机冲击下贸易大幅震荡应从构建国家价值链入手。     

我国经济外部失衡的SVAR分析

通过构建一个SVAR模型并进行冲击分解,探讨了影响我国经济外部失衡的两个核心变量——经常账户和人民币汇率波动的结构性冲击及其传导机制。在进行冲击分解时,不仅考虑了宏观政策的冲击,也从微观上考虑了消费者的偏好冲击。最后得出的结论是,消费者的偏好冲击能够很好地解释我国经常账户的波动,货币冲击能够对人民币名义有效汇率的波动提供合理的解释,而风险溢价冲击能够解释这两个变量之间的相互关系。     

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES INTERACTION IN MONETARY UNIONS

In this paper, the literature on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union is surveyed. By adopting the concept of symbiosis as a starting point, the paper highlights the importance of uncertainty, policy makers' preferences and targets. Then, the role of commitment to policy rules and coordination is addressed. The analysis also focuses on the importance of the data considered for the generation of the policy mix. As a final step, the paper discusses the main results in the literature on public debt management in a monetary union. All the reported theoretical results are then adopted to retrieve policy and institutional implications for the European Monetary Union.     

Off‐farm labor market decisions and agricultural shocks among rural households in Kenya

Using household level data from rural Kenya, this article explores whether and how farm households respond to unfavorable agricultural production environments, including any ex post adjustments in off‐farm labor supply in response to unexpected weather shocks. While controlling for a wide range of educational, demographic, and other locational factors, we examine how long‐term weather conditions and specific rainfall shocks influence a household's decision to engage in, and their earnings from, the off‐farm labor market. We find that rural households engage in off‐farm work as a long‐term strategy to deal with the effects of anticipated weather conditions on their farming operations. The analysis does not reveal major short‐term adjustments in off‐farm engagement as a result of specific, unexpected rainfall shocks; these households do however rely on remittance income and petty agricultural wage labor under these circumstances. Holding other factors constant, and conditional on participation, households in areas with a more productive local agriculture tend to earn more from off‐farm work especially in the informal/business sector than their counterparts in regions with a less productive agriculture. As expected, a vibrant local economy in the form of public investment increases the probability of off‐farm participation.     

Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and Their Effect on Growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in Sub‐Saharan Africa. We choose nine Sub‐Saharan African countries that are heavily dependent on a single agricultural commodity for a significant portion of their income. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a structural non‐linear dynamic model. The novel aspect of this study is that we determine whether the response of per capita GDP for the selected Sub‐Saharan African countries is different to unexpected increases in agricultural commodity prices as opposed to decreases in prices. We conclude that there is very little evidence that an unanticipated price increase (decrease) will lead to a significantly different response in per capita incomes.