Why did the terms of payment in international trade change so much?

This article examines factors contributing to the substantial change in the terms of payment, such as letter of credit (LC) and cash terms, in Korean export transactions during the period 1997–2015, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test approach. We find that high competition in the world market, the expansion of exports of information technology products and intra-firm trade, and the improvement of information and communication technology (ICT) decrease the share of exports on LC terms in total exports in the long run. However, the increase in exports to developing countries raises the use of LC terms. On the other hand, the increase in intra-firm trade and ICT improvement raise the share of exports settled in cash, and higher trust between trading partners increases the use of cash terms.     

A simple method for extracting the probability of default from American put option prices

We present a novel method for extracting the risk-neutral probability of default (PD) of a firm from American put option prices. Building on the idea of a default corridor proposed by Carr and Wu, we derive a parsimonious closed-form formula for American put option prices from which the PD can be inferred. The method is easy to implement. Our empirical results based on seven large US firms for the period 2002–2010 show that, in some cases, our option-implied PD can provide a more accurate estimate of default probability than the estimates implied from credit default swaps.     

Does money have a role in the inflation process? Evidence from Australia

Inflation, defined as a sustained increase in the price level, is considered a monetary phenomenon, as it can be explained within the framework of money‐demand and money‐supply relationships. In the extant literature, money growth is shown to remain causally related to inflation across countries and over time, irrespective of the exchange rate regime and stability of the money‐demand function. Nevertheless, emerging literature suggests a diminishing role of money in the conduct of monetary policy for price stability, especially under inflation targeting. Monetary policy in Australia under inflation targeting since 1993 is an example of policy that denies a relationship between money growth and inflation. The proposition that money does not matter insofar as inflation is concerned seems odd in both theory and the best‐practice monetary policy for price stability. This paper uses annual data for the period 1970–2017 and quarterly data for the period 1970Q1–2015Q1. It deploys both the Johansen cointegration approach and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to investigate for Australia whether money, real output, prices and the exchange rate (non‐stationary variables) maintain the long‐run price‐level relationship that the classical monetary theory suggests in the presence of such stationary variables as the domestic and foreign interest rates. As expected, the empirical findings for Australia are consistent with the classical long‐run price‐level relationship between money, real output, prices and the exchange rate. The error‐correction model of inflation confirms the presence of a cointegral relationship among these variables; it also provides strong evidence of a short‐run causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation. On the basis of a priori theoretical predictions and empirical findings, the paper draws the conclusion that the monetary aggregate and its growth rate matter insofar as inflation is concerned, irrespective of the strategy of monetary policy for price stability.     

实际有效汇率波动对上海出口商品结构的影响

文章先构建了分析实际有效汇率波动对出口商品结构影响的计量模型,然后以上海的月度数据为例,采用边限检验方法判别变量间的长期协整关系。并采用ARDL和ECM模型分析了2002--2008年期间人民币实际有效汇率波动对上海出口商品结构的长期和短期影响。结果显示无论从长期还是从短期来看,实际有效汇率的波动都会减少劳动密集型、资源密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型商品出口,但四类商品受影响程度不同,并且技术密集型商品出口方程的误差修正项系数较大,表明其出口受到冲击以后,向均衡回复的速度较快。     

Unbounded exchange economies with satiation: How far can we go?

We unify and generalize the existence results in Werner [Werner, J., 1987. Arbitrage and the existence of competitive equilibrium. Econometrica 55 (6), 1403–1418], Dana et al. [Dana, R.-A., Le Van, C., Magnien, F., 1999. On the different notions of arbitrage and existence of equilibrium. Journal of Economic Theory 87 (1), 169–193], Allouch et al. [Allouch, N., Le Van, C., Page Jr., F.H., 2006. Arbitrage and equilibrium in unbounded exchange economies with satiation. Journal of Mathematical Economics 42 (6), 661–674], Allouch and Le Van [Allouch, N., Le Van, C., 2008. Erratum to “Walras and dividends equilibrium with possibly satiated consumers”. Journal of Mathematical Economics 45 (3–4), 320–328]. We also show that, in terms of weakening the set of assumptions, we cannot go too far.     

On the accuracy of phase-type approximations of heavy-tailed risk models

Numerical evaluation of ruin probabilities in the classical risk model is an important problem. If claim sizes are heavy-tailed, then such evaluations are challenging. To overcome this, an attractive way is to approximate the claim sizes with a phase-type distribution. What is not clear though is how many phases are enough in order to achieve a specific accuracy in the approximation of the ruin probability. The goals of this paper are to investigate the number of phases required so that we can achieve a pre-specified accuracy for the ruin probability and to provide error bounds. Also, in the special case of a completely monotone claim size distribution we develop an algorithm to estimate the ruin probability by approximating the excess claim size distribution with a hyperexponential one. Finally, we compare our approximation with the heavy traffic and heavy tail approximations.     

Analysing the bias in the primal-dual upper bound method for early exercisable derivatives: bounds,estimation and removal

We analyse the primal-dual upper bound method for Bermudan options and prove that its bias is inversely proportional to the number of paths in sub-simulations for a large class of cases. We develop a methodology for estimating and reducing the bias. We present numerical results showing that the new technique is indeed effective.     

广义虚拟经济视角下制造业跨越式发展内涵研究

改革开放带来了我国制造业几十年的快速发展,然而我国制造业在硬实力与软实力上均不及发达国家,在国际竞争中长期处于劣势。要想凸显制造业的竞争优势,就必须实现制造业的一种跨越式发展,广义虚拟经济理论的提出为我们解决制造业的跨越式发展问题提供了一个很好的视角。本文从广义虚拟经济视角下的信息态出发,构建了一套"八位一体"的制造业跨越式发展内涵体系。     

Does a Country's Openness to Trade and Capital Accounts Lead to Financial Development? Evidence from Malaysia*

This paper examines the role of trade openness and capital account openness in influencing financial development in Malaysia. The empirical findings using the bounds testing approach demonstrate that trade openness and capital account openness are positively significant determinants of financial development. However, there is no empirical support of the hypothesis that the simultaneous opening of both trade and capital accounts is necessary for financial development to take place. The evidence is valid for three banking sector development and two stock market development indicators.