Untersuchung über die Kränklichkeit in den staatlich unterstützten Krankenkassen Schwedens

Abstract

Von den Vorschriften, die für die staatlich unterstützten Krankenkassen gelten, werde ich hier nur so viel mitteilen, was für den Aufbau der mathematiscben Formeln notwendig ist, sowie einige Tatsachen, die bei Vergleichen mit anderen Kränklichkeitsmaterialien von Bedeutung sind. Im übrigen wird auf das Gesetz über Krankenkassen hingewiesen.     

基于中国省级面板数据的房价与地价关系研究

本文利用2002年3月到2008年6月中国28个省的面板数据对房价与地价的关系进行了考察,结果表明土地招拍挂制度使得全国房价平均水平提高了13.2%。同时,采用面板误差修正模型对房价与地价之间的因果关系进行了检验,证实了在全国范围内,无论是长期还是短期,房价都是地价的granger原因,而地价只是房价长期granger原因。本文认为,由于各个地区地价对房价的影响方式不同,控制不同地区的房价应该采取不同的有针对性的措施,不宜实行＂一刀切＂政策。     

中国股票市场收益和波动溢出效应实证分析

运用Granger因果检验模型和ARCH类型模型对沪深股市收益之间的关联性和波动溢出效应进行实证分析,这对于研究股市的结构和判断股市的走势及风险传递无疑具有重要的作用。结论显示:沪深股市日收益间有很强的相关性,沪市日收益的历史信息能用来改善对深市未来趋势的预测;沪深股市间存在显著的双向波动“溢出效应”。     

Does tourism-led growth hypothesis exist in Mauritius? Evidence from disaggregated tourism markets

We use the data of total tourism market and 10 major tourism markets in Mauritius to test the validity of tourism-led growth hypothesis in the country for the period 1980–2011. Using causality techniques, we confirm the hypothesis for the total tourism market. However, tourism-led growth exists in only 6 of the 10 markets. We conclude that not all tourism markets are contributing substantially to Mauritius’ economy.     

Exchange rate returns and volatility: the role of time-varying rare disaster risks

This paper provides empirical evidence to the theoretical claim that rare disaster risks have predictability for exchange rate returns and volatility using a nonparametric quantile-based methodology. Using dollar-based exchange rates for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the quantile-causality test shows that indeed rare disaster-risks affects both returns and volatility over the majority of their respective conditional distributions. In addition, these effects are much stronger when compared to those using the British pound, especially in terms of currency returns.     

A Study on Strategic Value Chain and Cost Driver and PEST Analysis Method

Strategic value chain analysis method can be adopted to analyze the existing cost causality so as to confirm and optimize the value chain. Strategic cost driver analysis method that is used on the income of the owners and daily operators, production and operating activities, administration, resources, culture, etc in an enterprise can further enlarge the strategic cost scope. For analysis of the enterprise and its external environment factor, PEST analysis is represented as the extroversive analysis of cost causality. Three analytical methods of different kinds having some commonness on cost causality analysis can be combined together to form the causality analysis method, which will expand the visual angle of analysis and help to establish the integral frame of strategic cost causality analysis.     

Information flows within and across sectors in Chinese stock markets

We examine the patterns of information flows within and across sectors of the two Chinese stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen during 1994–2001. Using the generalized forecast error variance decomposition, we find a high degree of interdependence, indicating that the sectors are highly integrated and sector prices reflect information from other sectors. Industry is the most influential sector in both exchanges, while Finance in Shenzhen is the least integrated with other sectors. Implications of the findings for investors and policymakers are also discussed.     

论我国货币供应量中介目标的有效性

以普勒基本分析理论为基础，对我国经济的基础冲击进行了两阶段实证分析，结果表明目前的冲击仍然主要来自于商品市场；分析了货币供应量与真实GDP之间存在着长期均衡关系，认为货币供应量作为中介目标仍然具有理论上的合理性，但是合理性并不一定意味着效率性，进而通过Granger因果检验对货币供应量的低效性进行了证明。在实证分析的基础上对上述问题的产生原因进行了分析。     

Wither Qualitative/Quantitative?: Grounds for Methodological Convergence

The qualitative quantitative issue has been given attention in sociological scholarship for decades. Upon theoretical examination of the basis of separations, the commonly used criteria of subjectivity versus objectivity, systematization, quantification and generalization, do not separate. This suggests that the impetus for the qualitative/quantitative issue is more political than intellectual owing to several factors in the practice of sociology: diverse intellectual heritages, the domination of quantitative sociologists in teaching methods and writing methods text books, the proliferation of computer technology in the past 20 years, and separation of theory and method. Advancing sociological methods means transcending the quantitative/qualitative issue and moving on to consider issues like science, validity, causality and multiverse.     

碳密度与投资率的因果关系——对中国1980～2009年数据的实证研究

为应对国际金融危机的冲击,国务院4万亿元巨额投资计划出台,碳密度的反弹也随之见诸报端。在这样的背景下,文章运用格兰杰因果检验对我国1980～2009年投资率和碳密度的数据进行分析。检验结果表明,投资率和碳密度之间存在单向因果关系,投资率是碳密度的格兰杰原因。最后从我国的投资现状出发,提出展望与建议。