机构投资者大幅增减仓对股票价格的影响研究--基于2014年中报数据的实证分析

运用事件研究法,选取2014年中报不同类型机构投资者大幅增减仓幅度、股票的超额收益率、同方向操作的机构数量等作为被研究变量,通过Stata12、Excel软件分析机构大幅增减仓在中短期内对股票价格的影响。研究发现,不同机构大幅增减仓对股价的影响有较大差异,机构大幅增仓比大幅减仓对股票的正面影响明显更大,但减仓的股票整体上也存在超额收益率;机构投资者增减仓幅度与股票超额收益率正相关,机构同买同卖的行为存在一定程度的“羊群效应”。因此,国家需进一步鼓励机构投资者的发展,引入更多的QFII,促进保险、券商、信托与基金发行差异化理财产品,机构应当理性投资,挖掘优质股票,避免羊群行为以减少对股票价格的冲击。     

内部控制与内部人违规交易行为

以2009~2012年沪市上市公司为研究样本,以内部人违规交易比率、内部人敏感期交易比率和内部人延迟披露比率作为内部人违规交易行为的替代变量,考察了内部控制对内部人违规交易行为的影响。研究发现,内部控制质量与内部人违规交易比率和内部人敏感期交易比率显著负相关,与内部人延迟披露比率之间的关系不显著。研究结果表明,总体而言,内部控制能有效抑制内部人违规交易行为的发生,有利于提高内部人交易的合法合规性。     

Portfolio performance manipulation in collateralized loan obligations

We examine the discretionary activities that CLO managers engage in to pass monthly overcollateralization (OC) tests. These tests require a CLO's loan portfolio value, scaled by the CLO notes’ principal balance, to be above a certain threshold. Using CLOs’ granular disclosures, we develop model-free estimates for discretionary loan fair valuation and transaction-based proxies for strategic loan trading. We find a positive association between these discretionary activities and the probability of avoiding an OC test violation. This association varies predictably with junior noteholders’ influence and CLO market conditions. Strategic trading—but not discretionary fair valuation—relates to worse future CLO performance.     

Insolvency law reform in Australia and Singapore: Directors' liability for insolvent trading and wrongful trading

This article compares reforms to directors' liability for insolvent trading in Singapore and in Australia. We analyse the law in these two countries because they are important Asia‐Pacific trading partners and their laws were originally largely the same—Singapore's law on insolvent trading reflected the law in Australia from the 1960s. However, the law in the two countries has now diverged substantially. The comparison of these two countries therefore represents an interesting case study in how countries differ in their approaches to balancing the competing interests evident in laws that impose personal liability on company directors for insolvent trading. Reform of the prohibition against insolvent trading was a focus of Australia's insolvency law reforms in 2017, which led to the introduction of a safe harbour for directors from liability. Singapore's omnibus insolvency law reforms of 2018–19 include amendments to update Singapore's fraudulent and insolvent trading provisions by introducing a concept of “wrongful trading.” The article finds that there are some areas of convergence between these two jurisdictions when it comes to debates about such provisions but concludes that the different contemporary legislative histories in Australia and Singapore have affected their approaches to reform. Reformers in both jurisdictions have attempted to find an appropriate balance between protecting creditors, discouraging director misconduct, and encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation; however, this comparison suggests that the weight that reformers place on creditor protection compared with the concern that excessive personal liability can make directors unduly risk‐averse is influenced by their existing legislative framework and experience of those laws. Although Australia has shifted away from a strict focus on creditor protection, to give directors more opportunities to engage in restructuring, Singapore's amendments may provide a more creditor‐friendly regime.     

Are margin traders informed?

The literature offers contradictory views on the informativeness of margin trading using various measures of information content. Utilising data from a Chinese margin‐trading pilot programme initiated in 2010, this paper investigates whether margin traders are informed by directly examining the return predictability of margin‐trading activity. We find that margin‐trading activities cannot positively predict future stock returns. Moreover, we explore some non‐informational trading strategies used by margin traders, e.g., positive‐feedback strategies and moving‐average trading rules. These results suggest that margin traders are noise traders rather than informed traders, and margin trading conveys no new firm‐specific information.     

基于非理性交易行为的证券收益分布特征研究

笔者使用一个异质交易者并存的市场收益模型,证明非理性的反馈交易导致证券收益的长程相关,收益序列的长程相关性引起了异常扩散,由于扩散的方差大于标准布朗运动的方差,造成收益概率密度函数的厚尾现象.在模型的基础上.利用蒙特卡罗仿真方法生成了股市收益时间序列样本,计算了仿真数据的蜂度、尾指数和自相关系数,并与我国上证指数真实收益序列的相应指标进行了对比分析.模型的仿真结果显示了证券收益的尖峰厚尾特征以及收益序列的自相关性.     

内生交易费用、分工演进与中美汇率博弈——一个新兴古典经济学视角

笔者认为,中美当前这场人民币汇率博弈将是一个混合战略均衡,即双方以某一概率值选择博弈策略,而该概率值又是一个多变量的函数.     

我国绿色金融存在的问题与对策

通过大量的数据收集,对不同时期的数据进行对比,总结出我国绿色金融目前的发展状况。根据目前的发展前景指出我国绿色金融发展中存在的缺陷,结合区块链等新技术和思路展望了绿色金融的未来发展方向,从提高参与度、监管资金流向和规范市场角度提出了解决相关问题的对策意见。     

我国新股发行改革的动态路径与特征——基于演化博弈视角

2009年6月证监会启动新股发行改革,直指“市场化”目标,新股发行市场投资者问的竞争博弈加剧。基于演化博弈视角,引入噪声交易理论,刻画我国新股发行市场投资者理性行为与非理性行为的动态变化,模拟市场变动的理论演化路径,应用新股发行市场的月度数据做实证检验,验证演化博弈模型的理论路径与现实相符,最后,结合演化博弈模型动态路径与实证结果来总结新一轮新股发行改革的特征,指出市场化改革提高了新股发行市场的理性程度,一定程度上抑制了市场非理性行为,而新股发行的信息揭示与风险提示将是下一阶段改革的重要目标。     

Fair trade in tourism

Tourism as an industry is increasing rapidly in developing countries. Due to historical inequality in global trading relationships on the basis of ‘core–periphery’ dependency, globalisation and liberalised free trade, mainstream mass tourism reinforces the social and economic disadvantages of southern destinations. The ‘Fair Trade Movement’ has sought to redress unequal trading by promoting fair trade in commodities with small producers in the South, enabling them to take control over the production and marketing process and challenging the power of transnational corporations. This paper examines the feasibility of fair trade in tourism. It explores the obstacles and opportunities that might lead to establishing a definition of fair trade in tourism, incorporating criteria that would be workable and practical for both partners in the South and North. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.