论区域经济的视域与关切——新冠肺炎疫情的启示

人们对现实经济的认识,实际上是被一定的范式承诺所“框定”的。范式承诺决定了观察和感受经济的视域境界,视域境界决定了人们所看到的经济世界图景。人们观察和判断经济现象并非只有一个永远不变的视域,视域实际上是多样的,而且是可能会发生变化的。新冠肺炎疫情突出显示了视域境界和社会关切的改变,如何产生巨大的社会性影响,决定着对社会经济的态势判断的思维倾向。在其影响下,区域经济态势几乎断然改变,进入了“另一个世界”。信息传播使得域际关切更为突出,各地区都希望增强信息透明度,作为进行政策安排和民心安定的重要条件。新冠肺炎疫情使我们更深切地理解供给侧结构性改革的普遍性意义。让整个系统的各个方面都更具内在活力、反应效能和责任担当,国家治理体系和能力才能实现现代化。经历这次新冠肺炎疫情之后,整个国家及各地区经济,将进入一个浴火重生般的新视域世界,关切取向必将有新的选择,值得区域经济学者们进行更深入的研究。     

Initial treatment failure in non-ICU community-acquired pneumonia: risk factors and association with length of stay,total hospital charges,and mortality

Abstract

Objectives:

To identify risk factors for initial treatment failure in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in non-intensive care unit (non-ICU) settings, and to characterize the association between initial treatment failure and length of stay, total hospital charges, and mortality.

Methods:

Retrospective cohort study. Using data from >100 US hospitals, this study identified all adults (age ≥18 years) hospitalized for pneumonia between January 1, 2000 and June 30, 2009 who began antibiotic therapy within 24?h of admission and were treated for at least 48?h if alive; patients admitted to intensive care within the first 24?h in hospital were excluded. Initial therapy was defined as all parenteral antibiotics administered within the first 24?h in hospital. Treatment failure was assessed based on subsequent receipt of new antibiotic(s), excluding agents of similar/narrower spectrum and those begun at discharge. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for treatment failure, and multivariate linear and logistic regression to compare length of stay, total hospital charges, and in-hospital mortality between patients experiencing initial treatment failure and those who did not.

Results:

Among 32,324 patients with non-ICU CAP, 4695 (14.6%) experienced initial treatment failure, most often within 72?h of hospital admission. Significant predictors of initial treatment failure included malnourishment (OR?=?1.87; 95% CI?=?1.60–2.18), receipt of vasoactive medications within 24?h of admission (1.51 [1.17–1.94]), and renal failure (1.45 [1.32–1.59]). Treatment failure was associated with higher case fatality (8.5% vs 3.3%), longer hospital stays (mean [SD]?=?10.1 [8.1] days vs 4.9 [3.3] days), and higher total hospital charges ($37,602 [$71,876] vs $14,371 [$21,633]) (all comparisons, p?<?0.01). Study limitations include possible inclusion of patients with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) in the study sample, our focus on the 40 most commonly used antibiotic regimens, and indirect measurement of treatment failure.

Conclusions:

Approximately one in seven non-ICU CAP patients experience failure of initial antibiotic therapy. Risk of failure is higher for patients with significant comorbidities and/or severe infections. Non-ICU patients who experience initial treatment failure have significantly longer hospital stays, higher total hospital charges, and higher rates of mortality.     

Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities?

In this paper, we examine the stock markets’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using daily COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths and stock market returns data from 64 countries over the period January 22, 2020 to April 17, 2020, we find that stock markets responded negatively to the growth in COVID-19 confirmed cases. That is, stock market returns declined as the number of confirmed cases increased. We further find that stock markets reacted more proactively to the growth in number of confirmed cases as compared to the growth in number of deaths. Our analysis also suggests negative market reaction was strong during early days of confirmed cases and then between 40 and 60 days after the initial confirmed cases. Overall, our results suggest that stock markets quickly respond to COVID-19 pandemic and this response varies over time depending on the stage of outbreak.     

新时代财政应急保障机制研究

2020年新冠肺炎疫情的爆发,凸显了我国新时代财政应急保障机制的困境.在不断推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的进程中,我国数字经济与共享经济的突飞猛进为改良传统财政应急机制提供了契机.本文通过借鉴国外先进经验,结合中国实际情况,提出了完善财政应急保障机制的几点建议.     

新冠肺炎疫情全球爆发下宁波纺织服装外贸企业面临的困境与对策建议

新冠疫情全球爆发导致国际市场需求暂停,中国纺织服装外贸企业受到严重冲击.本文以宁波为例,分析纺织服装外贸企业因疫情而面临的困境和挑战,探讨外贸企业疫情下的对策建议.     

应对突发公共卫生事件的税收政策探讨

近年来国内外突发公共卫生事件发生频率增加,其对经济造成的负面影响不容小觑。税收政策是国家治理和宏观调控的重要工具,对中国这样一个拥有超大规模市场的巨型经济体,建立和完善应对突发公共卫生事件的税收政策体系,发挥其在疫情防控及经济恢复中的保障作用,不仅很有必要,而且对完善国家治理体系现代化具有深远意义。基于此,本文以新冠肺炎疫情为背景,运用相关理论阐述了税收政策应对突发公共卫生事件的必要性,对现有相关应对疫情的税收政策进行系统梳理,提出完善我国突发公共卫生事件的税收政策建议。     

Stress can help or hinder novelty seeking: The role of consumer life history strategies

Previous research shows mixed findings on whether stress increases or decreases novelty seeking. In three studies, using both archival and experimental data, and including more than 61,000 consumers from over 55 different countries, we show that it can do both, albeit for consumers differing in “life history strategies” (LHSs), that is, short-term, impulsive, and reward-sensitive (fast) versus long-term, reflective, and controlled (slow) strategies. We find that stress increases (helps) novelty seeking for fast, but decreases (hinders) novelty seeking for slow LHS consumers. Moreover, under baseline (low stress) conditions, fast LHS consumers display a lower tendency for novelty seeking than slow LHS consumers. Interestingly, these effects are present for acute stress but not for chronic (pandemic) stress. We discuss the implications of our findings for public policy and positioning strategies, specifying when and for whom novel (versus familiar) products and services might be most effectively and efficiently marketed.     

Evolution of hoteliers’ organizational crisis communication in the time of mega disruption

This research note explores the evolutionary process of corporate crisis communication to understand how international hotel enterprises respond to the present pandemic. Corpus linguistics was used as a computer-aided approach in assessing a large collection of naturally occurring texts. Press releases from hotel corporations listed in Fortune 500 within the period of January to April 2020 were curated and built into three corpora. Lexical patterns that evolved over the course of the first quarter of 2020 reveal that the lodging industry did not fully prepare for the crisis until March, while management was still dwelling on their past achievements even in February 2020. The overall tone, pre-crisis, reflected top management's demonstration of success and performance, attributed to the CEOs themselves; while it completely changed during the crisis. This study draws upon crisis management and organizational communication streams of work to advance prevailing theoretical accounts of organizational crisis communication.