Strategic innovation and technology adoption in an evolving industry

We introduce a racing model with multiple product generations, product innovation, spin-outs, and licensing. Industry conditions and innovation characteristics affect who wins the race and who markets the resulting product. Small firms market their innovations when they pioneer a new generation or improve quality in a young generation and license their innovations in mature generations. If old generation leaders ever market improvements in young generation goods, they do so early on. Leadership in mature generations persists. Tests on the rigid disk drive industry (1977-1997) provide empirical support. The results have implications for antitrust policies and policies governing employee non-compete agreements.     

US-Europe differences in technology-driven growth: quantifying the role of education

European economic growth has been weak, compared to the US, since the 1980s. In previous work (Krueger and Kumar, 2003, NBER Working Paper No. 9410), we argued that the European focus on specialized, vocational education might have been effective during the 1960s and 1970s, but resulted in a growth gap relative to the US during the subsequent information age, when new technologies emerged more rapidly. In this paper, we extend our framework to assess the quantitative importance of education policy, when compared to labor market rigidity and product market regulation, other policy differences more commonly suggested to be responsible for US-Europe differences. A “decomposition” exercise using a calibrated version of our model assigns a major role to education policy in explaining US-Europe growth differences.     

Code of ethics: The professional catch 22

In October of 1981, a jury in Ohio found an accountant guilty of negligence and breach of contract for violating the obligation of confidentiality mandated in the accountant's code of ethics and awarded the plaintiffs approximately $1,000,000. At approximately the same time, a jury in New York awarded a plaintiff in excess of $80,000,000 based in part on the failure of an accountant to disclose confidential information.     

The effects of the minimum wage in Brazil on the distribution of family incomes: 1996–2001

The Brazilian economy has long relied on the minimum wage, having first implemented a minimum in 1940. Shortly after taking office in 2003, Brazil's President raised the minimum wage by 20% and promised to double the value of the minimum wage before his term ends in 2006. The usual rationale for minimum wage increases is to bring about beneficial changes in the income distribution, by raising incomes of poor and low-income families. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the efficacy of the minimum wage in Brazil in bringing about these changes in the income distribution. We examine data drawn from Brazil's major metropolitan areas, studying the years after Brazil's hyper-inflation ended. The estimates provide no evidence that minimum wages in Brazil lift family incomes at the lower points of the income distribution; if anything some of the evidence points to adverse effects on lower-income families.     

Sectoral Productivity in the United States: Recent Developments and the Role of IT

Abstract. This paper introduces new estimates of recent productivity developments in the United States, using an appropriate theoretical framework for aggregating industry multi-factor productivity (MFP) to sectors and the total economy. Our work sheds light on the sources of the continued strong performance of US productivity since 2000. We find that the major sectoral players in the late 1990s pickup were not contributors to the more recent surge in productivity. Rather, striking gains in MFP in the finance and business service sector, a resurgence in MFP growth in the industrial sector, and an end to drops elsewhere more than account for the aggregate acceleration in productivity in recent years. Further, some evidence is found for a link between IT intensity and the recent productivity acceleration.     

How does the impact of an HIV/AIDS information campaign vary with educational attainment? Evidence from rural Uganda

The responsiveness to information is thought to be one channel through which education affects health outcomes. This paper tests this hypothesis by examining the effectiveness of an information campaign that aims at preventing the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Uganda. It uses individual level data from a cohort study following and testing the general population of a cluster of villages in rural Uganda over 12 years and shows that, after more than a decade of prevention campaigns about the dangers of the epidemic, there has been a substantial evolution in the HIV/education gradient. Early in the epidemic, in 1990, there was no robust relation between HIV/AIDS and education. In 2000, among young females, education is associated with a lower risk of being HIV positive. Results on HIV incidence in a duration framework confirm that finding by establishing that, for young women, education reduces the probability of seroconversion. These findings reveal that educated women have been more responsive to the HIV/AIDS information campaigns. The analysis of sexual behavior reinforces that conclusion: condom use is associated positively with schooling levels.     

A comparison between the log-linear and the parameterized expectations methods

This paper compares the performance of a log-linear method and a parameterized expectations method in solving a dynamic general equilibrium endogenous growth model with human capital. Quantitative evaluation based on second moment statistics shows that the results provided by the two numerical methods are very similar in this framework whenever the propagation mechanism of technology shocks is weak. However, the cross correlations of some relevant variables in the RBC literature obtained from the two methods are significantly different when the model exhibits a strong propagation mechanism. The parameterized expectations method captures the sensitiviness of second moment statistics to the curvature of the utility function while the log-linear method does not.     

Law enforcement and transition

We present a simple model to analyze law enforcement problems in transition economies. Law enforcement implies coordination problems and multiplicity of equilibria due to a law abidance and a fiscal externality. We analyze two institutional mechanisms for solving the coordination problem. A first mechanism, which we call “dualism”, follows the scenario of Chinese transition where the government keeps direct control over economic resources and where a liberalized non-state sector follows market rules. The second mechanism we put forward is accession to the European Union. We show that accession to the European Union, even without external borrowing, provides a mechanism to eliminate the “bad” equilibrium, provided the “accessing” country is small enough relative to the European Union. Interestingly, we show that accession without conditionality is better than with conditionality because conditionality creates a coordination problem of its own that partly annihilates the positive effects of expected accession.     

Network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality: Theory and evidence from Mexico

International migration is costly and initially only the middle class of the wealth distribution may have both the means and incentives to migrate, which can increase inequality in the sending community. However, the migration networks formed lower the costs for future migrants, which can in turn lower inequality. This paper shows both theoretically and empirically that wealth has a nonlinear effect on migration, and then examines the empirical evidence for an inverse U-shaped relationship between emigration and inequality in rural sending communities in Mexico. After instrumenting, we find that the overall impact of migration is to reduce inequality across communities with relatively high levels of past migration. We also find some suggestive evidence for an inverse U-shaped relationship among communities with a wider range of migration experiences.