产业投资基金真的可以驱动经济结构优化吗——产业基金对经济增长与产业升级驱动程度的PVAR模型分析

在中国经济转型过程中,众多地方政府选择产业投资基金作为优化经济结构的助推工具,但实践中各地方产业基金的投资效果与期望目标存在较大差异,因此需要对产业基金的经济优化效应进行检验。运用诺依曼定理分析产业基金与经济结构优化的互动机制并提出研究假设,采用面板向量自回归模型将经济结构优化表示为经济增长与产业升级,并与产业投资基金进行实证检验。结果表明,产业基金并不是经济结构优化的驱动因素,而只是其结果。一方面,产业基金并不会直接驱动经济增长与产业结构升级,而是通过增加金融投资总量间接作用于经济结构优化;另一方面,产业升级与经济增长会显著吸引产业投资基金。鉴于大量设立产业投资基金对于优化经济结构效果不显著,因而应当重点促进多元金融产业发展、提高企业融资能力、发展多种形式的金融工具。     

The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany

In September 2007, the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) launched a new foresight process which aimed at four specific targets. To achieve them, a tailor-made combination of methods was applied. This paper focuses on the concept design of the process and explains one of the methods — the future online survey — in more detail.The German Foresight Process of the BMBF delivers results on different levels: broader future fields as well as single future topics. Both kinds are relevant and selected according to a set of criteria. Some of the results of this foresight process will be directly integrated into national policy activities, others are just more indirectly filtered into the innovation system of the specific sectors in the country. The future fields are all cross-cutting issues based on science and technology. All of them are specifically knowledge dynamic fields.     

A research agenda for improving national Ecological Footprint accounts

Nation-level Ecological Footprint accounts are currently produced for more than 150 nations, with multiple calculations available for some nations. The data sets that result from these national assessments typically serve as the basis for Footprint calculations at smaller scales, including those for regions, cities, businesses, and individuals. Global Footprint Network's National Footprint Accounts, supported and used by more than 70 major organizations worldwide, contain the most widely used national accounting methodology today. The National Footprint Accounts calculations are undergoing continuous improvement as better data becomes available and new methodologies are developed. In this paper, a community of active Ecological Footprint practitioners and users propose key research priorities for improving national Ecological Footprint accounting. For each of the proposed improvements, we briefly review relevant literature, summarize the current state of debate, and suggest approaches for further development. The research agenda will serve as a reference for a large scale, international research program devoted to furthering the development of national Ecological Footprint accounting methodology.     

The effects of tariffs on coalition formation in a dynamic global warming game

The prospects for cooperation on climate protection beyond 2012 are currently uncertain. Thus policy instruments which foster participation in International Environmental Agreements (IEA) are in demand. Among the instruments under discussion are trade sanctions. Multi-region optimal growth models are a state of the art tool for integrated assessment, but introducing trade sanctions distorts the competitive equilibrium, making it difficult to compute numerically. We introduce trade and trade sanctions into a model of coalition stability to assess the potential of trade sanctions to support an IEA. Trade is modeled by having all countries produce a generic output good, but adopting national product differentiation (Armington assumption). Coalitions are free to impose tariffs on imports from non-cooperating countries. We solve the model numerically using a refined version of Negishi's [Negishi, T., 1960. Welfare economics and existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy. Metroeconomica 12, 92–97] basic algorithm. We then apply the model to analyze the influence of tariffs on international cooperation. The model suggests that there is indeed a significant potential to raise participation through trade sanctions, even when goods from different countries are nearly perfect substitutes. Furthermore we investigate the effect of trade sanctions on global welfare, environmental effectiveness, and the credibility of the tariff mechanism.     

中国当代城市经济理论研究的沿革与发展

城市经济是国民经济的重要领域,对城市经济理论的研究,中国当代学者始终没有停下脚步,尤其是改革开放以来,开展了精彩而深刻的探索,取得了大量的成果。本文旨在梳理、揭示和反映中国当代城市经济理论研究的波澜壮阔的历程。     

Relative entropy in sequential decision problems

Consider an agent who faces a sequential decision problem. At each stage the agent takes an action and observes a stochastic outcome (e.g., daily prices, weather conditions, opponents' actions in a repeated game, etc.). The agent's stage-utility depends on his action, the observed outcome and on previous outcomes. We assume the agent is Bayesian and is endowed with a subjective belief over the distribution of outcomes. The agent's initial belief is typically inaccurate. Therefore, his subjectively optimal strategy is initially suboptimal. As time passes information about the true dynamics is accumulated and, depending on the compatibility of the belief with respect to the truth, the agent may eventually learn to optimize. We introduce the notion of relative entropy, which is a natural adaptation of the entropy of a stochastic process to the subjective set-up. We present conditions, expressed in terms of relative entropy, that determine whether the agent will eventually learn to optimize. It is shown that low entropy yields asymptotic optimal behavior. In addition, we present a notion of pointwise merging and link it with relative entropy.     

An optimization approach to strategic sourcing: A case study of the United States Air Force

The DoD annually procures billions of dollars worth of systems, supplies, and services in support of the national military strategy. Faced with budget cuts and other resource constraints, the DoD must transform its procurement process to ensure cost-effective sourcing of critical supplies and services. One aspect of current transformation in the DoD is the use of a strategic sourcing approach for the procurement of services at military installations. Using the Air Force's strategic sourcing process as our context, we developed an optimization model for selecting a set of proposals from among multiple offerors for services to be performed at multiple installations. The selection achieves the most favorable objective by balancing the confidence level in an offeror's past performance with the cost of services to the Air Force. The research findings, which are based on a realistic scenario, demonstrate improvements over the current sourcing process in both overall performance and cost.     

车辆路径问题的可靠性研究

首先分析车辆路径问题中随机因素,以及现有考虑行程时间波动的车辆路径问题,从而确立以配送车辆为研究对象,建立对应的行程时间可靠性模型,以不超过规定值,用来适应处理交通状态的不确定性。通过粒子群算法求解,验证表明,考虑道路运行的不确定对车辆调度的影响,制定的车辆调度方案能够更加可靠,对于配送过程更加有效。     

TO ADMIT OR NOT TO ADMIT: THE QUESTION OF RESEARCH PARK SIZE

A theoretical model is used to explore the determinants of the optimum size of a private research park and the effect of university affiliation on that optimum size. Parks are assumed to operate as cooperatives where costs are equally shared among the member firms, and optimality occurs when the firms’ average net benefits are maximized. To achieve this, existing members of a park will limit the park's size, denying entry to firms who wish to join and are willing to share the costs. University affiliation may either increase or decrease the optimum size of a park.     

The impact of research collaboration on academic performance: An empirical analysis for some European countries

The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of internal and external research collaborations on the scientific performance of academic institutions. The data are derived from the international SCOPUS database. We consider both quantity (the number of publications) and quality indicators (the field-weighted citation impact and the share of publications in the 10% most-cited articles) to evaluate universities' performance in some European countries (Germany, France, Italy, the UK and Russia). To this end, we develop a non-overlapping generations model to evidence the theoretical idea of research externalities between academic institutions. Moreover, we implement an empirical model to determine the extent to which the impact of internal and external collaborations on universities' performance is sensitive to the geographical dimension of the data.