禽流感危机下肉鸡产业市场状态分析*——基于互联网大数据和MS-VAR模型

[目的]为了有效应对禽流感冲击、维持肉鸡产业稳定健康发展。[方法]基于互联网大数据构建了禽流感舆情指数,选取2012年1月至2017年3月周度数据,通过MS-VAR模型分析了禽流感危机下肉鸡市场状态的转换特征以及不同市场状态下产业链价格传导关系。[结果]2012年以来可将肉鸡产业市场状态划分为危机状态和正常状态,肉鸡产业市场在两个市场状态下转换频繁;肉鸡产业危机市场状态和正常市场状态平均持续期分别为4.65周和9.05周;肉鸡市场在区制转移概率上存在明显的非对称特征;肉雏鸡、活鸡和白条鸡价格之间在危机状态下相关性小于正常市场状态下相关性;不同市场状态下肉鸡产业链价格传导存在差异;肉鸡产业市场在危机状态下不稳定程度明显增加。[结论]提出了加大对禽流感疫情的监测以及疫情处理能力,密切关注公众禽流感舆情动态变动情况,做好舆情引导,加强禽流感疫情科学知识的宣传,增强公众对禽流感的认知等对策建议。     

我国4省农民思想教育现状分析及对策研究

加强农民教育,提高农民素质,培养新型农民是建设社会主义新农村的现实需要,是当前农业与农村工作中一项十分紧迫的任务。该文从社会学视角,结合陕西、河南、山东、江西4省样本,对当前农民思想素质教育问题进行较为深入的探讨,在此基础上,提出了今后农民思想教育发展的思路。     

壮大广西油茶产业 保障国家粮油安全

广西是我国西部地区的农业大省,具有种植油茶的优越自然条件和社会经济条件。广西的油茶面积和产量均居全国第三位,为了更好地促进广西油茶产业的进一步发展,该文探讨了广西发展油茶产业的战略意义,分析了其发展现状及存在问题,并提出了相应的对策措施。     

酒泉市水资源现状及面临的问题与对策

该文通过对酒泉市水资源现状及利用情况的研究,分析了水资源利用面临供需矛盾、地下水超采严重、利用率低、管理不规范、导致生态环境持续恶化等问题,提出了水资源可持续利用的合理对策和保护措施。     

辽宁省农产品市场流通体系建设现状及对策

该文系统分析了辽宁省农产品市场流通体系建设的基本情况,明确了存在的主要问题,提出了今后一个时期的发展思路和对策:一是提升批发市场的功能与档次,二是建立新型农产品零售网络,三是大力发展农产品物流,四是构建农产品流通的组织体系,五是完善农产品交易方式,六是推进市场管理的规范化、法治化和制度化。     

股权分置改革中的机构合谋与内幕交易

本文考察了股权分置改革过程中机构投资者与非流通股股东之间的合谋问题以及合谋的可能途径——内幕交易。文章的基本发现有两个:第一,在控制了影响股改对价水平的主要因素之后,机构投资者对方案的赞成比例与股改对价水平之间存在显著的负相关关系,而全体流通股股东以及大个体流通股股东对方案的赞成比例与对价水平之间呈现显著的正相关关系;第二,机构投资者对方案的赞成比例越高,公司的内幕交易程度也越高,而其他流通股股东的表决意见与内幕交易程度之间没有显著关系。这意味着机构投资者与非流通股股东利用内幕交易进行了合谋,合谋的结果使得非流通股股东得以支付一个较低的对价水平,而机构投资者则通过内幕交易获得额外收益。     

Derivative disclosures and managerial opportunism

Derivatives are increasingly used by managers not only to hedge risks but also to pursue nonhedging activities for fulfilling opportunistic incentives. The Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 161 (SFAS 161) requires firms to disclose their objectives and strategies for using derivatives. Using the adoption of this standard, we examine whether and how derivative disclosures influence managerial opportunistic behavior. We employ insider trades and stock price crash risk to capture managerial opportunism. Applying a difference-in-differences research design with hand-collected data on derivative designations, we find that, after the implementation of SFAS 161, derivative users that comply with SFAS 161 experience a significantly greater decrease in both insider trades and stock price crash risk, compared with a matched control sample of nonderivative-users. We further provide evidence to suggest that SFAS 161 curbs managerial opportunism via reducing information asymmetry between corporate insiders and outside investors and enhancing the effectiveness of derivative hedging.     

中国户外运动用品经营现状分析

近年来,随着中国户外运动不断兴起,户外运动用品市场得到了长足发展。但由于其市场发展的不均衡、经营者的市场意识不成熟,以及经营模式存在问题等,导致市场经营策略狭隘,制约了户外运动用品市场的发展。应发挥中国国内商家的市场优势,打破国际品牌垄断,创建自己的户外运动用品品牌,带动整个户外运动用品产业向大众化发展,促使市场走向行业规范和有序竞争,以促进整个行业的持续与健康发展。     

缩小我国居民贫富差距的对策研究

近此年来,在我国居民生活的总体水平不断提高的前提下,居民贫富差距不断扩大的问题也日渐突出。其根本原因是经济运行的双轨制和税务法制的不健全与不完善。缩小我国居民贫富差距,应加大税收制度的改革,消除城乡国民待遇差异,建立健全社会保障体系,不断健全完善国家制度和体制,实现社会的公平公正。     

Predicting mobile hotel reservation adoption: Insight from a perceived value standpoint

With the attempt of further supporting the overwhelming demand for reservation, a few hospitality corporations have launched mobile hotel reservation (MHR) services. For the acceptance of MHR by individuals is indispensable to the successful implementation of MHR, it is critical for practitioners and academics to understand the factors influencing the adoption of MHR. This study examines the adoption of MHR from the value perspective by proposing and examining a new research model that can capture both gain and loss elements influencing individual value perceptions on behavioral intention to adopt MHR. Data from 235 usable questionnaires, collected in Taiwan, were tested against the research model using the structural equation modeling approach. The results indicated that perceived value was a predictor in explaining the customer's adoption of MHR. From the benefits point of view, perceptions of information quality and system quality were the two critical components significantly influencing perceived value of MHR. On the sacrifice side, the effects of technological effort and perceived fee on perceived value were significant. This study will be helpful to researchers in developing and testing MHR related theories, as well as to hospitality firms in understanding individual value perceptions of utilizing MHR and implementing successful MHR system to attract more customers. Theoretical and managerial implications of our results are discussed.