行为资产组合理论：理论基础、内容及对异象的解释

行为金融理论于20世纪80年代兴起，它通过将行为因素引入决策过程从而对传统的金融理论做出补充。谢夫林(Shefrin)和斯特曼(Statman)在现代资产组合理论的基础上提出了行为资产组合理论，该理论是行为金融的理论基础之一。行为资产组合理论的基础包括安全第一组合理论和安全、潜力和期望理论。内容分为单一账户资产组合理论和多重账户资产组合理论。行为资产组合理论能够对市场中的一些异象做出合理的解释。     

三峡·神农架·武当山区域旅游一体化发展战略构想

三峡、神农架、武当山旅游业在湖北省旅游业中占有重要的地位。三峡·神农架·武当山区域实现跨区域联合,形成区域一体化旅游发展模式对湖北旅游形象的提升和旅游经济的跨越式增长具有十分重要的现实意义。通过分析三峡·神农架·武当山区域一体化发展的现实基础和条件,提出了三峡·神农架·武当山区域一体化发展的初步构想。     

ERP中工资管理子系统的解决方案研究与实现

提出典型中小制造企业信息化建设中ERP系统整体解决方案,分析了定单式中小企业ERP系统中工资管理子系统与其它子系统的联系、系统体系结构和系统开发实现的关键技术,并重点讨论了基于B/S架构ERP系统中工资管理子系统开发中的一些关键技术.     

我国西部城乡一体化与东部的差距——以重庆和上海为例

根据重庆与上海的比较,西部地区城乡一体化水平落后于东部地区的最主要原因是西部地区的城市化进程远远慢于东部地区的城市化进程,城乡居民收入差异和恩格尔系数的差异也是西部地区城乡一体化程度低于东部地区的原因.因此,大幅度提高城市化水平、调整产业结构、建立城乡统一的市场等,是今后西部地区加快实现城乡一体化的几个主要切入点.     

业财融合背景下的信息系统审计研究

在企业业财融合的背景下,信息系统审计环境发生了巨大的变化。论文旨在指出企业业财融合背景下信息系统审计环境变化对审计的影响,分析现代信息审计的新发展和新趋势,进而剖析审计变化对审计工作者带来的挑战,提出应付这些挑战的解决方案。期望从理论方面拓展和创新理论思想,从实践方面为当代信息系统审计提供新的思考和思路,强化审计的增值作用,也有助于企业对信息系统的风险进行有效的监管。     

推进党建与业务工作深度融合,引领企业高质量发展

新时期国有企业基层党建工作应以党的十九大精神,尤其是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想及国企党的建设工作会议精神为指导,加强组织建设,发挥党员先锋模范作用,推进基层党建工作与业务工作深度融合,形成以党建促业务发展的新常态,努力实现以党建引领推动工程项目建设,以高质量党建引领企业高质量发展。     

Efficient markets and Bayes’ rule

Summary. A series of financial anomalies motivated the development of new theories that modify the rational expectations ideal. Two possibilities have been systematically explored. The literature on behavioral finance relaxes the assumption that agents form beliefs according to the laws of probability and assume, instead, that simpler heuristic rules are used. Another stream of the literature assumes that agents process information according to Bayes rule, but do not posses sufficient information to know the true data generating process. In this paper, Bayesian and Behavioral agents coexist and trade in a standard dynamic asset pricing model. A long-standing conjecture is demonstrated. It is shown that, under suitable assumptions, Bayesian agents drive Behavioral, non-Bayesian agents out of the market. Hence, asset prices are eventually determined under the Bayesian paradigm.Received: 3 June 2004, Revised: 17 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D83.Preliminary versions have circulated under the titles Markets Favor Bayesian Models and Market Selection of Empirical Models under Limited Information. I thank Larry Blume, David Easley, Larry Epstein, Armando Gomes, Bruce Hansen, Lars Hansen, Richard Kihlstrom, Grace Koo, George Mailath, Werner Ploberger, Andrew Postlewaite and Shakeeb Khan for useful comments. I also thank participants at the NBER GE meetings, Evolutionary Finance conference in Zurich, Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics, the Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada, the theory seminar at Brown, Chicago, Harvard-MIT, Minnesota, Penn and Wisconsin. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Science Foundation Grant SES 0109650.     

Bargaining Outcomes with Double-Offer Arbitration

Increasingly, arbitration is becoming used to resolve bargaining disputes in a variety of settings. Reducing dispute rates is often listed as a main goal in designing arbitration mechanisms. Conventional arbitration and final-offer arbitration are two commonly used procedures, but theoretical examinations of these arbitration procedures show that disputants’ final bargaining positions do not converge and disagreement is likely. This article contains results from a set of experiments designed to compare bargaining outcomes under the two commonly used arbitration procedures with outcomes under an innovative procedure called “double-offer” arbitration (Zeng et al., 1996). This procedure requires that disputants make two final offers at impasse: a primary and a secondary offer. The arbitrator evaluates the pairs of offers using a linear criterion function, and theory suggests the secondary offers converge to the median of the arbitrator’s preferred settlement distribution. Because the procedure’s rules are that convergence of offers generates a settlement at those offers, this theoretical convergence result implies that arbitration is not needed in the end. Experimental results indicate that dispute rates in double-offer arbitration are, on average, about the same as dispute rates in conventional arbitration. However, other results show reason to favor double-offer arbitration. Specifically, in repeated bargaining, there is concern over whether use of an arbitration procedure becomes addictive and makes bargainers more likely to use the procedure in the future-a “narcotic effect.” The data show that double-offer arbitration is non-addictive, whereas both conventional and final-offer arbitration are.     

Dimensions of quality upgrading

The impact of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies’ trade integration with European markets on CEE trade structures has been studied extensively. These studies frequently observe a quality upgrading of CEE exports. In this paper we consider three dimensions of quality upgrading: upgrading across industries, upgrading across different quality segments within industries and, finally, product upgrading within quality segments inside industries. For the analysis we partition industries into quality segments based on EU‐15 import unit values. The results for ten CEE countries (comprising the CEE‐5, the Baltics and South East Europe) and thirteen industries suggest fundamental differences, both across country groups and across the three different notions of quality upgrading. The CEE‐5 show no evidence of entering a ‘low‐quality trap’ in all three dimensions. By contrast, while there is a general catching‐up process across industries and inside quality segments, the second notion of low‐quality specialization may be applicable within the high‐tech industries to the performance for the Baltics and South East Europe as a group.     

Central Bank's interventions and the Fisher hypothesis: a threshold cointegration investigation

The long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation is examined, allowing for structural breaks and asymmetric mean reversion. From a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) test applied to the residuals of the cointegration relationship (while allowing for both a break in the mean of the long-run equation and a smooth regime-transition), there is strong evidence for non-linear mean reversion properties for the real interest rates of the US Treasury Bill market. This suggests asymmetric changes to inflation shocks in the Central Bank's reaction function. The existence of different regimes is consistent with some interpretations of the monetary policies run by the Fed, such as credibility and opportunism.