Putting the dividend–price ratio under the microscope

We analyze the time-series properties of the dividend–price ratios (DPRs) of 11 developed countries since the early 70s. Despite its frequent use in research as a valuation method for stock prices and a determinant of stock returns, previous studies suggest that there is mixed evidence of the time-series properties of DPRs predicted by economic theory. We argue that this mixed result is attributable to the sample size used in previous studies. Here, we have opted to implement the panel data approach (i.e., N>2) to increase the total size of observations rather than relying on the traditional method (i.e., increasing the size of T). In this way, we can increase the total number of observations without increasing the likelihood of structural breaks. For this purpose, we implement the panel unit root test taking account of cross sectional dependence, and obtain clear evidence of stationary DPRs. Thus, we conclude that a significant one-to-one long-run relationship exists between stock prices and dividends for the countries in our samples.     

Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data

The paper estimates inflation persistence in Greece from 1975 to 2003, a period of high variation in inflation and changes in policy regimes. Two empirical methodologies, univariate autoregressive (AR) modelling and second-generation random coefficient (RC) modelling, are employed to estimate inflation persistence. The empirical results from all the procedures suggest that inflation persistence was high till 1996, while it started to decline after 1997, when inflationary expectations seem to have been stabilised, and thus, monetary policy was effective at reducing inflation. Empirical findings also detect a sluggish response of inflation to changes in monetary policy. This observed delay seems to have changed little over time.

中国大米市场回归均衡速度研究

本文利用持续性时间序列（Persistence profile）方法分粳米和籼米估计了大米市场受到冲击后向均衡收敛的速度，进而分析了中国大米市场的有效性，研究结果表明：对于粳米而言，主产地市场比主销地市场更有效；从总体上看，籼米市场比粳米市场更有效。为缩短市场受到冲击后回到均衡需要的时问，提高中国大米市场的有效性，粳米主销地要储备合理数量的粳米应对市场的突然冲击，要采取多种措施与主产区建立稳定的大米购销关系；国家要加强粮食市场信息化和交通运输建设，提高大米流通效率，加快市场调节速度。     

Herding by Foreign Institutional Investors: An Evidential Exploration for Persistence and Predictability

The primary objective of the study is to explore the predictability of herding patterns of foreign institutional investors in the Indian market using high frequency data over a period from January 2003 to June 2014. Herding of an individual stock was measured estimating a simple volume based ratio and persistence of trends was detected using the runs test (Wald and Wolfowitz [1940 Wald, A., and J. Wolfowitz. “On a Test Whether Two Samples are from the Same Population.” The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 11, (1940), pp. 147–162.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]]) on that ratio. Predictability of herding behavior has been successfully modeled by applying 7 data mining models using various measures of performance. Market regulators may consider our findings to regulate the foreign institutional investors trading to make the financial system more transparent and robust.     

Is a co-jump in prices a sparse jump?

Systematic co-jumps in asset prices are generally thought to account for only a small proportion of overall jumps. In actual observations, however, jumps in asset prices are often persistent, and the time of persistence varies. In this context, we develop a new rule to identify co-jumps and improve traditional tests by considering different sampling frequencies and different sampling starting points to re-evaluate the occurrence rate of systematic co-jumps in financial assets. We conduct a simulation experiment to show that the current test procedures generally underestimate the number of co-jumps when considering persistence, but that the proposed procedure can identify co-jumps more accurately. We also perform an empirical analysis using price data from the Shanghai 50 Index and its 25 constituent stocks in China’s stock market. The average proportion of systematic co-jumps detected by the improved s-BNS is approximately 30%, which shows that the co-jump and even the systematic co-jump are not sparse jumps. The results also reveal the shortcomings of traditional jump tests in estimating persistent jumps and demonstrate that the proposed method can better detect the possible nondiversifiable risks between market indices and their constituent stocks, thereby contributing to financial risk management.