Sanctions as revelation regimes

Sanctioning in the face of uncertainty has been investigated from the perspective of signaling models, in which an informed target sends a signal and the sanctioner decides to sanction or not. As the more powerful power, however, the sanctioner could take the lead rather than react to the action of the target. Borrowing from contract theory, I present a new approach to the sanctioning of a target of unknown type in which the sanctioner explicitly structures the target’s options before the target moves. The theory shows that in a situation in which a sanctioning state is ignorant of the target’s willingness to comply, it may be able to elicit the revelation of that information through a careful mix of incentives. I derive the comparative statics and provide historical illustrations. I thank Eric Fisher, Massimo Morelli, Chad Rector, Kuba Zielinski, and Byungwon Woo for valuable suggestions on prior versions.     

中国-东盟相互直接投资政治风险的法律防范体系构建

在中国—东盟自由贸易区框架下,中国与东盟相互直接投资规模迅速扩大,加强对相互直接投资政治风险的防范及法律防范体系的构建,已成为中国与东盟国家当前一项紧迫而又艰巨的任务。在分析中国与东盟相互直接投资政治风险防范现状的基础上,针对相互投资政治风险法律防范机制所存在的问题,从国内法和国际法两个层面提出构筑政治风险法律防范体系对策建议。     

PAC Contributions from Sectors of the Financial Services Industry, 1998–2002

This paper explores the relationship between House committee membership and campaign contributions from financial services industry political action committees (PACs) over the 1998–2002 election periods. Three significant pieces of banking legislation were passed during this time. Because members of the financial services industry were affected greatly by this legislation, it seems logical that PACs might attempt to influence the legislative process through the distribution of campaign contributions. We examine the relationship between PAC contributions to individual legislators for the 1998–2002 election cycle and membership on the House banking committee using a sample selection model. We find committee membership matters and the different financial services industry PACs give disproportionately more to representatives with the power to write legislation favorable to the industry. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the October 2007 International Atlantic Economic Conference.     

Short selling and stock prices with regime switching in the absence of market makers: The case of Japan

This paper investigates the relation between short selling and stock price at an aggregated market level. In order to study the differential impact of market microstructure on short selling, the data from Japanese stock markets are used. Both traditional regression and Markov switching models are used to compare Japanese results to those of U.S. and to admit non-stationary relation between short selling and stock price, respectively. Particularly, relatively long period (1978–2002) of analysis including bullish and bearish periods gives a good testable bed for studying the effect of short selling on stock price according to market condition. The empirical findings reveal that percentage change of short interests has a statistically significant positive relation with stock returns. It gives regulators policy implication that short selling is not a destabilizing activity, but an acceptable form of trading even in the absence of market makers. And short selling information cannot be used as an indicator for predicting future stock markets.     

政治经济周期理论研究的新视角——从总量目标到工具目标的演进

政治经济周期理论通常从政党动机和投票人是否理性来分析问题,按照实证研究中观察目标的不同,将政治经济周期理论分为两类:一类观察经济总量目标,另一类观察政策工具目标。由观察经济总量目标发展到观察政策工具目标有特定的原因,政策工具目标具有周期现象,即存在预算周期和货币周期。财政政策工具和货币政策工具在解释政治经济周期现象时具有不同的作用。     

How brinkmanship saved Chadbourne: Credibility and the International Sugar Agreement of 1931

Theories of cartel stability assume detection is uncertain, but also unambiguous. Recent empirical studies find that cartel agreements are contractually incomplete. If so, whether an action constitutes violation may be ambiguous. While theory emphasizes the ineffectiveness of agreements that are not fully specified ex ante, recent research shows that stable cartels may often renegotiate terms to eliminate loopholes caused by incompleteness. Naturally, renegotiations can lead to breakdowns, but sometimes threats of breakdown are resolved. This paper examines the strategy adopted by Cuban negotiators to resolve a near breakdown in the International Sugar Agreement of 1931. Cuba made a threat of retaliation credible by using a strategy of brinkmanship. The paper contributes to recent empirical work, such as Levenstein [Explorations in Economic History 33 (1996) 107; Journal of Industrial Economics 45 (2) (1997) 117] and Genesove and Mullin [American Economic Review 91 (3) (2001) 379], which uses the economics of organization to interpret cartel behavior.     

开发区功能演化与职能职责重构

开发区向功能区的演变,通常要经历功能开发、功能生成和功能成熟这三个主要的阶段,每个阶段的发展特点、管理需求不尽相同。开发区在率先改革与开放的过程中,主要是通过城市空间的发展来实现功能生成的。当服务经济成为主要的发展趋势时,那些旨在通过集聚现代服务业、培育城市核心商务功能的功能区往往承载着国家和区域发展的战略转型任务,创新其管理体制关系到城市融入国际经济循环体系和促使国内产业升级的系统竞争力,是现阶段需要重点解决的议题。     

都市草根政治传播的新动向——免费报纸的近期发展及潜在政治影响

作为一种新的传播方式,免费报纸的发送量在我国大中城市持续增加,草根传播效力日渐增长,其潜在的政治影响力不容忽视,应当引起高度关注。需要认真研究和分析免费报纸的政治传播功能,积极引导免费报纸发展,综合管理免费报纸市场,产生良好的经济社会和政治文化效益。     

Political economy and other idioms: French views on English development, 1815-48

This article investigates the role of political economy in the shaping of French views of British economic performance. It is argued that the potential of political economic for spreading a favourable interpretation of British development was not in fact realized until the end of the period considered. One reason for this was that earlier on, the image of economic Britain suffered from the legacy of the French Revolution and the Napoleonic wars, with a link often being established between British pauperism and British aristocratic, ‘feudal’ society and government. Additionally, political economy struggled to gain ascendancy over other modes of social analysis, like Saint-Simonism and the science of administration, which either combined with it, thus affecting its potential for a favourable understanding of Britain, or directly challenged it.