农民专业合作社品牌建设行为影响因素研究以北京市蔬菜专业合作社为例

目的 品牌建设是引领农民专业合作社发展的关键环节,厘清农民专业合作社品牌建设行为的影响因素成为解决农民专业合作社现有问题、提升农民专业合作社经济绩效和增加农民收入的关键,对于推进农业现代化发展和实施乡村振兴战略具有重要意义。方法 文章基于北京市蔬菜专业合作社的调查数据,利用Logit模型和Probit模型,从内部条件、外部条件、组织和文化条件以及政府条件四个方面,分析影响农民专业合作社品牌建设行为的关键因素。结果 研究结果表明,内部条件因素中的种植面积、注册年限、“三品一标”情况,外部条件中的市场竞争激烈程度,组织文化条件中的理事长对品牌建设重视程度因素,政府是否进行资金和政策支持因素具有较强的显著性。结论 因此,农民专业合作社应完善合作社内部管理机制、实施规范化运营、加强文化战略建设,同时政府也应该增加扶持力度,共同促进农民专业合作社品牌建设的可持续化发展。     

中国利率期限结构对经济周期波动的预测能力检验——基于动态Probit模型的研究途径

本文对我国利率期限结构对经济周期波动的预测能力进行实证研究.首先,利用时差相关分析方法选择我国经济周期波动的利差先行指标.然后,利用基于利差先行指标的动态Probit模型检验我国利率期限结构对经济周期波动状态的预测能力,并且对静态Probit模型和动态Probit模型、各种动态Probit模型之间的预测效果也进行了比较.研究结果表明,我国利率期限结构变动对未来3个月的经济周期波动状态具有比较稳定的指示作用,利用经济状态先验信息的动态Probit模型的预测效果优于静态Probit模型.     

Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques

The most representative machine learning techniques are implemented for modeling and forecasting U.S. economic activity and recessions in particular. An elaborate, comprehensive, and comparative framework is employed in order to estimate U.S. recession probabilities. The empirical analysis explores the predictive content of numerous well-followed macroeconomic and financial indicators, but also introduces a set of less-studied predictors. The predictive ability of the underlying models is evaluated using a plethora of statistical evaluation metrics. The results strongly support the application of machine learning over more standard econometric techniques in the area of recession prediction. Specifically, the analysis indicates that penalized Logit regression models, k-nearest neighbors, and Bayesian generalized linear models largely outperform ‘original’ Logit/Probit models in the prediction of U.S. recessions, as they achieve higher predictive accuracy across long-, medium-, and short-term forecast horizons.     

Predicting economic contractions and expansions with the aid of professional forecasts

Traditional econometric models of economic contractions typically perform poorly in forecasting exercises. This criticism is also frequently levelled at professional forecast probabilities of contractions. This paper addresses the problem of incorporating the entire distribution of professional forecasts into an econometric model for forecasting contractions and expansions. A new augmented probit approach is proposed, involving the transformation of the distribution of professional forecasts into a ‘professional forecast’ prior for the economic data underlying the probit model. Since the object of interest is the relationship between the distribution of professional forecasts and the probit model’s economic-data dependent parameters, the solution avoids criticisms levelled at the accuracy of professional forecast based point estimates of contractions. An application to US real GDP data shows that the model yields significant forecast improvements relative to alternative approaches.     

生态公益林补偿标准的Probit模型分析--基于福建省372份农户问卷调查数据

基于福建省372份问卷调查数据,建立Order Probit模型,分析了生态公益林补偿标准的主要影响因素。研究发现：“农户对政府公益林政策是否满意”、“是否觉得现行的生态公益林补偿标准太低”两个变量显示正向显著相关,其它变量没有显示显著性,但分别显示正向或负向相关。根据计量结果,联系实际情况,提出了相应政策建议。     

林农参与林业专业合作社的意愿与调查分析

基于对浙江省龙泉市林业专业合作社深入的调研进行实证分析。根据所得数据描述性的理论分析和统计分析结果构建的Probit模型对影响林农参与林业专业合作社的因素进行深入分析的结果表明:林农参与合作社的意愿受农户户主的年龄、林业收入占家庭总收入的比例、林产品销售问题、对林业专业合作社的了解程度等因素的影响。在此基础上,提出应该继续加强林业合作社的宣传工作、提高合作社的产品营销能力等发展农民专业合作社的相关对策建议。     

社会规范、环境规制与农户施肥行为选择研究

目的 依托社会规范与环境规制引导农户施肥行为选择,对提高农业生产效率实现农业绿色发展具有重要意义。方法 通过将农户施肥行为选择分为直接减少化肥施用量与采纳化肥替代技术两部分,构建多变量Probit模型。文章基于甘肃省895份农户调研数据,分析社会规范、环境规制对农户施肥行为选择的影响。结果 （1）社会规范对农户施肥行为选择有促进作用。社会规范的描述性规范和命令性规范既能促进农户采纳化肥替代技术,也对农户减少化肥施用有正向作用。（2）环境规制作用复杂。引导型规制能引导农户减少化肥施用量,却对农户采纳化肥替代技术有消极作用。激励型规制能促进农户采纳化肥替代技术,却会刺激农户过量施用化肥;（3）社会规范与环境规制对农户施肥行为选择存在交互作用,二者对农户采纳化肥替代技术的交互作用为正。结论 政府应改进引导型规制的技术培训方式,减少其对农户时间与动员成本的挤占,避免激起农户的抵触心理;调整激励型规制的方式方法,防范其在刺激化肥过量施用方面的负作用。此外,重视社会规范建设,发挥社会规范对环境规制的辅助与矫正作用,引导二者良性互动,协同发力。     

Bank-firm relationship and credit risk: An analysis on Tunisian firms

This paper analyses the impact of the intensity and length of bank-firm lending relationship on Tunisian banks’ credit risk over the period 2001–2012. The sample includes 494 bank-firm relationships for 383 firms. By applying probit and ordered probit models, our results indicate that firms which engage in intense relationships with banks are less likely to encounter a credit default. In addition, these firms exhibit a higher loan quality. However, no evidence has been found for the impact of the relationship length on credit risk. Further, the findings show that private banks, unlike public financial institutions, take advantage of their close lending relationships with borrowers to mitigate information asymmetry and therefore improve their loans portfolio quality.     

Assessing the effectiveness of a technical assistance program: The case of maize seed relief to vulnerable households in Zimbabwe

The recent economic downturn in Zimbabwe impoverished the majority of households. To assist vulnerable rural households improve their food security, the British Department for International Development implemented a seed relief program from 2003/2004 to 2005/2006 that emphasized recycling of maize open pollinated varieties (OPV). Using data collected from 597 households in six districts in 2006, this study assesses the effectiveness of the program in terms of its targeting of beneficiaries, the flow of information from participating NGOs to beneficiaries on the need to recycle the seeds, and the level of recycling done at the end of the program. The empirical results suggest that the targeting method participating NGOs use inadvertently excludes relatively vulnerable households while including large proportions of relatively well-endowed households in the program. The choice of varieties to distribute is guided more by the ecological adaptability of available commercial seeds and less by preferences of beneficiaries. Notwithstanding the fact that seed selection information is critical in encouraging beneficiaries to recycle distributed seed, not all of them received it. In conclusion, it may be stated that the program undoubtedly contributed to increased food productivity by vulnerable households but its overall effectiveness could have been enhanced through (i) the involvement of the beneficiaries in the choice of types of seed to be distributed, (ii) better targeting of beneficiaries, and (iii) improved information flow between NGOs and beneficiaries.     

信息透明度与中小企业贷款绩效分析——对“中小银行优势”的检验

中小银行具有结构与地缘上的优势,在为中小企业提供贷款融资方面具有大银行所不具备的优势,能够较好地掌握中小企业传递的软信息,以降低信息不对称的天然劣势。借助Probit模型,对147家中小企业所获得的贷款进行实证分析发现,中小企业由于自身特点获得大银行贷款的难度较高,应通过设立大量中小银行及其他中小金融机构,以解决中小企业融资难题。