社会阶层认知分化的实证研究——基于有序Probit面板模型的估计

文章基于2012与2014年中国劳动力动态调查数据,利用有序Probit面板模型对我国劳动力社会阶层认知分化进行影响因素分析。实证显示,具有先赋性和自致性因素优势的个体更倾向于作出较高的阶层认知;主观认知因素显著影响劳动力的社会阶层认知,"相对剥离感"不利于阶层认知的提升。上述结论关于主观认知解释变量的内生性和有序模型的非正态性设定都是稳健的。此外,这些因素对劳动力社会阶层认知分化的边际概率影响具有一定的地区差异性。这些结果对我们正确评估社会转型期的代际传承、弱势群体生存状态、青年人职业选择、劳动力身心健康等都具有政策意义。     

“新农合”对农村居民耐用品消费的影响

本文利用中国营养健康调查（CHNS）数据,基于改进的Probit模型检验了新型农村合作医疗保险对农村居民耐用品消费的影响。研究发现：“新农合”能有效提高农村家庭的耐用品消费水平,且农村家庭上一期参保行为对耐用品消费的刺激作用更显著。另外,“新农合”对存在中、高健康风险居民的耐用品消费刺激作用明显,且上期参保行为对健康高风险居民的耐用品消费促进作用更强。     

The Persistence of Profits,Sectoral Heterogeneity and Firms’ Characteristics

The analysis of the persistence of profits has long been a controversial issue within empirical industrial organisation literature. The aim of our paper is to provide new empirical findings that may account for patterns of both sectoral and firm profit persistence. The distinctive feature of our study is that we analyse a number of firms’ ergodic distribution in each sector according to their profit level; we then calculate the difference between such a distribution and that prevailing in manufacturing as a whole. Finally, we break down this distribution; the resulting breakdown highlights the impact of each transition probability on inter‐sectoral differences clearly, and it also emphasises the role of intra‐sectoral dynamics in determining different persistence patterns. We then apply this methodology to both innovating and non‐innovating firms, and conclude that among surviving firms innovation is indeed crucial to the persistence of profits. In addition, we set up an econometric test which enables us to estimate the impact of firm and sectoral characteristics on a firm’s profit condition.     

Optimal criteria for selecting price discrimination metrics when buyers have log-normally distributed willingness-to-pay

This paper investigates how a monopoly seller should determine the optimal set of pricing variables (pricing metrics) for third-degree price discrimination applications in which buyers have log-normally distributed willingness-to-pay (WTP). In a setup that closely resembles linear and probit regressions, this paper shows that when the monopoly seller is restricted to using one metric and no price discrimination cost exists, the pricing metric that best reduces the residual variance of buyers’ willingness-to-pay is the one that maximizes revenue. Equivalently, the explanatory power of willingness-to-pay is the ordering criterion. This paper also shows that this criterion is not universally true when willingness-to-pay follows other distributions. When the seller incurs price discrimination costs associated with different metrics, the ordering criterion becomes the explanatory power of each pricing metric divided by its cost. This paper also discusses how to apply this model to solve real-world pricing problems with contingent valuation models or using probit regression.

农户消费决定因素:基于有序probit模型

本文以问卷调查数据为基础,利用有序Probit模型建立农户消费需求模型,分析微观因素对农户消费的影响.模型的计量经济分析表明:(1)农户家庭的经济状况对农户的消费有重要的影响.低收入家庭消费意愿明显高于高收入家庭;(2)户主个人因素对农户消费意愿有重要影响.户主受教育水平的提高以及户主主业的非农化对农户消费有积极的影响;(3)农村金融发展和农村保险体系完善与农户的消费意愿呈正相关;(4)农村居民消费环境对农户消费意愿有重要影响.并据此提出了相应对策.     

企业社会责任公众评价的影响因素分析——基于2015年中国工业与信息化领域公众调查数据

本文依据2015年中国工业和信息化领域企业社会责任在线公众调查数据,通过构建Ordered Probit模型研究了不同因素对企业社会责任公众评价的影响,并利用Probit模型研究不同所有制企业评价的影响因素。主要研究结论是：（1）公众对各项议题的重视程度显著影响其评价结果;（2）公众评价的影响因素具有地域差异性;（3）公众对不同所有制企业评价的影响因素具有差异性。     

消费者对可追溯性农产品的购买意愿研究

本文采用成都市区超市消费者的实证调查素材,运用Probit模型分析消费者购买可追溯性农产品意愿的影响因素,结果发现有显著影响的因素主要是消费者的职业、消费者对可追溯性农产品的认知程度及可追溯性标识的影响前度等.     

公众参与度对土地整治项目规划方案满意度的影响分析

研究目的:探究不同公众参与度对土地整治项目规划方案满意度的影响规律,为优化和改进公众参与机制,提高规划的满意度和可操作性提供依据。研究方法:实证研究,灰色关联度和有序回归(Ordered probit)模型分析法。研究结果:公众参与度对规划满意度有正向关联,总体上,A镇公众参与度高,规划满意度也高,满意比例比C镇高49.29个百分点;A镇公众参与度与满意度关联系数高于C镇,值域范围分别为0.270~0.788、0.203~0.672;不同公众参与度对规划满意度的显著性和边际效用不同。研究结论:公众参与是规划方案质量的重要保障,也是提高规划可操作性的前提条件,而公众对规划的满意度则是衡量公众参与效果的主要指标,可根据公众参与度对规划满意度的影响规律,优化和改进公众参与机制,提高规划满意度:(1)提高公众文化程度,加大耕地流转力度;(2)实行多元化公众参与主体;(3)提供便捷的公众参与渠道;(4)加大宣传力度,积极发挥各个社会组织的作用;(5)实行广泛地全程参与;(6)建立健全公众意见反馈机制等。     

Managing absenteeism in local government

Managing sickness absence effectively can produce significant cost savings as well as other, less tangible, benefits. This article shows why it is vital that local authorities provide tailor-made training on absence management for first line managers (FLMs) to develop ‘soft skills’, as well as acknowledging their specific organizational context. Development in this area should be an ongoing process which is reinforced with appropriate support from human resources (HR) professionals, and should be monitored as part of an overall absence management strategy.     

我国中老年人健康需求影响因素的实证研究——基于CHARLS数据的分析

本文依据中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2012年的数据,运用Probit有序选择模型,对影响我国中老年人健康需求的因素进行实证研究。由模型估计结果得出结论:1男性的健康水平高于女性的健康水平,城镇居民的健康水平高于农村居民;2综合来看,年轻时良好的健康水平和稳定的婚姻状况对中老年健康有正向的显著影响。年龄和教育对健康需求的影响比较符合Grossman模型的预测结果,且显著,收入对健康的影响不太符合Grossman模型的预测;3以性别做为分组变量的模型估计结果显示,教育对女性的健康影响更大,婚姻状况和收入对男性的影响更显著;以城乡为分组变量的模型估计结果表明,收入和教育对农村居民的健康水平有更大的影响。