社会资本、异质性风险偏好影响农户信贷与保险互联选择研究

本文研究农户选择信贷与保险互联的影响因素,采用江苏、湖北两省的农户调研数据,基于有序Probit模型进行实证检验,结果表明:一是影响因素中,风险偏好、财务自由度、地区变量呈正向作用,农户信息变量、教育程度、社会资本变量起负向作用,激励农户主动参与信贷与保险互联的关键在于培养其"企业家精神",提高其风险识别能力;二是信贷与保险互联存在着自我稳定机制,即农户财务自由度与获取信息能力达到一定程度,农户会自动脱离互联机制,从而有效降低了逆向选择风险。以上结论可为深化农业信贷与保险互联提供理论依据与政策建议。     

大学生参加医疗保险的动因分析——基于Probit模型的实证研究

本文以2011年10月对全国高校大学生的调查问卷为样本,通过构建Probit回归模型对影响大学生参加医疗保险的因素进行实证分析,研究表明:对医疗保险的了解程度、满意度以及医疗保险推广方式是影响我国大学生参加医疗保险的主要因素,大学生户籍、学校所在地区、专业、性别、年级、月平均生活费用支出等因素的影响却不明显。研究为我国城乡医疗统筹、"全民医保"的政策实施提供现实参考依据。     

农户对村镇银行贷款意愿的影响因素实证分析——基于有序Problt模型的估计

本文根据对陕西省5家村镇银行（岐山硕丰、洛南阳光、高陵阳光、安塞建信、安塞农银）所在4县（宝鸡岐山县、商洛洛南县、西安高陵县、延安安塞县）的201份样本农户问卷调查数据,利用有序Probit模型对影响农户村镇银行贷款意愿的因素进行了实证分析。在户主特征、家庭特征、对村镇银行的认知和评价以及区域变量四类变量17个指标中．得出户主文化程度、家庭人口负担比、家庭拥有现钱和银行存款、农户对政策和服务的满意程度、区域变量对农户村镇银行贷款意愿有显著的影响,据此提出了建立高效的客户管理模式、提高农户信贷满足度、设立村镇联系人和集中办理业务等政策建议。     

中国农村金融服务高质量发展主要障碍是供给约束吗？

农村金融服务质量相对不高是制约"三农"发展的重要障碍之一.基于金融资源空间配置实证模型和农户融资意愿Probit模型,考察当前我国农村金融服务高质量发展的制约因素,结果表明,供给约束是当前农村金融服务高质量发展的主要障碍,影响农民收入水平及农村经济发展.鉴此,解决供给约束问题宜通过政府政策"自上而下"调节,提高农村金融服务水平.     

企业家社会资本对文化企业财政支持可获性的影响——基于江苏省文化企业调研数据的实证研究

财政支持是影响文化企业发展的重要政策因素.文章首先将企业家社会资本分为企业家政治关系资本和企业家商业关系资本 ,在此基础上使用178家江苏地区文化企业实地调研数据 ,构建计量经济模型实证检验了企业家社会资本对文化企业财政支持可获性的影响.研究结果发现:企业家政治关系资本对文化企业财政支持可获性具有正向影响 ,但在统计上不显著;企业家商业关系资本对文化企业财政支持可获性具有显著正向影响 ,且企业家商业关系资本的作用明显大于企业家政治关系资本 ,这表明地方政府在决定是否对文化企业给予财政支持时 ,明显淡化了以往侧重于通过行政权力主导补贴资金的传统做法 ,而更多地遵循了通过市场机制来配置公共财政资源的原则.     

Economic significance of predictability in Australian equities

This paper examines evidence of predictability in Australian equities using both statistical and economic metrics of significance. A probit‐based predictive model is used to forecast the probability that the 1 month ahead excess market return will be positive. Funds under management are then switched between equities and fixed income on the basis of this forecast. Although the statistical evidence of the model's predictive ability is mixed, the results suggest convincing evidence of an economically significant degree of return predictability. A $A1 investment in the switching strategy (market) in January 1980 grows to over $A55 ($A39) by June 2007. Although the economic significance of the switching strategy remains even in the presence of high transaction costs, robustness checks suggest that the seemingly impressive full‐sample results might be sample specific. The apparent superiority of the portfolio‐switching strategy can be traced to a handful of observations early in the study during which the predictive model provides a timely signal to exit equities. There is little evidence that the predictive model has forecasting ability across the entire sample. As such, this paper serves both to illustrate how alternate metrics of return predictability can lead to divergent conclusions, and to emphasize the importance of subjecting apparent findings of predictability to robustness checks.     

Discrete and Continuous Representations of Unobserved Heterogeneity in Choice Modeling

We attempt to provide insights into how heterogeneity has been and can be addressed in choice modeling. In doing so, we deal with three topics: Models of heterogeneity, Methods of estimation and Substantive issues. In describing models we focus on discrete versus continuous representations of heterogeneity. With respect to estimation we contrast Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and (simulated) likelihood methods. The substantive issues discussed deal with empirical tests of heterogeneity assumptions, the formation of empirical generalisations, the confounding of heterogeneity with state dependence and consideration sets, and normative segmentation.     

An empirical study of the initial adoption of ISO 14001 in Japanese manufacturing firms

This paper analyzes stakeholders' environmental preferences/pressures and the financial flexibility that together influence firms to adopt ISO 14001, which is the international standard primarily concerned with an Environmental Management System (EMS). Since firms retain ISO 14001 once they have adopted it, a firm's decision to adopt ISO 14001 is considered from the period that they initially acquire the certification. Therefore, we assert that we have to focus on the determinants of initial ISO 14001 adoption. We analyzed: 1) the determinants of initial ISO 14001 adoptions respective to 1996, 1999, and 2004; and 2) the determinants of initial ISO 14001 adoptions during the period 1996-2004. The estimation results support the view that stakeholders' environmental preferences/pressures and firms' financial flexibility influenced their decision to adopt ISO 14001 in both analyses. Particularly, it is remarkable that we found that: 1) the determinants of the initial ISO 14001 adoption differed among the years of adoption; and 2) there is a positive relationship between economic performance and initial ISO 14001 adoption.     

Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis

The establishment of a new preferential trade agreement (PTA) or the expansion of an existing one alters the incentives of non-members to participate in a PTA. This can lead to a domino effect whereby non-members join an existing PTA. Or it can lead a pair of countries to establish a new PTA. We examine the determinants of why a pair of countries enters a bilateral PTA. Our emphasis is on (a) the impact of pre-existing PTAs and (b) whether this impact is larger when the members of pre-existing PTAs are on average geographically close to the pair of countries. Using data for 145 countries during 1955-2005, we find evidence that pre-existing PTAs increase the probability that a country-pair will enter a bilateral PTA and that this effect diminishes with distance. The analysis makes use of techniques drawn from spatial econometrics.     

规模分化视角下农户有机肥替代化肥意愿及行为分析——基于川渝柑橘主产区果农调查数据的实证

[目的]有机肥替代化肥有利于改善生态环境、提升地力和农产品品质。但实践中不同农户替代意愿及行为差异较大,意愿与行为之间也存在悖离。文章从农户规模分化视角探讨这些现象背后的缘由,并提出有效激励异质性农户替代行为的对策建议。[方法]基于有机肥替代化肥技术属性,构建经营规模影响农户替代意愿及行为的分析框架,利用川渝柑橘主产区农户调查数据,运用双变量Probit模型,实证分析不同规模农户替代意愿、行为差异及其关键影响因素。[结果]（1）规模分化对替代意愿及行为有显著影响,相较于小农户,规模户替代意愿及行为发生率更高;（2）由于影响因素的差异,农户替代意愿与替代行为存在一定偏差。相较于规模户,小农户替代意愿与行为缺口较大。（3）不同规模农户替代意愿及行为影响因素也存在显著差异。[结论]农户规模分化带来的异质性是有机肥替代化肥意愿及行为差异的重要原因,规模户的培育有利于有机肥替代化肥行动的推进。不同规模农户替代意愿及行为影响因素不同,应在充分尊重异质性农户意愿的前提下有针对性地引导其有机肥替代化肥行为。