Economic progress and skill obsolescence with network effects

Summary. We construct an OLG model with network effects to examine skill obsolescence when individuals can choose technological vintages. In the absence of transfer payments, some regions of the parameter space have unique stationary equilibria, others have unique cyclical equilibria, and others have multiple stationary equilibria. All equilibria are Pareto efficient. However, rat race equilibria can exist in which all agents currently alive prefer a slower rate of progress than occurs in equilibrium. When contemporaneous transfers are allowed, equilibria are unique everywhere, but a cycle still exists, and a rat race can still arise in equilibrium. Allowing intertemporal transfers (debt) ensures that all equilibria are stationary. In the relevant parameter range, the introduction of debt can eliminate cycles and increase the long-run growth rate. No rat race equilibria exist when debt is allowed.Received: 3 January 2002, Revised: 3 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: 041, J24, O33. Correspondence to: Ian P. KingEarly versions of this paper were presented at the West Coast Macro Workshop, the Mid-West Macro Meetings, the Canadian Macroeconomics Study Group Meetings, and the Society for Economic Dynamics Meetings. We would like to thank V. V. Chari, Merwan Engineer, Don Ferguson, John Hillas, John Knowles, Dan Peled, Dan Usher, Linda Welling and Julian Wright for helpful comments. We are especially grateful to an anonymous referee for some very useful and substantive comments.     

利率、魏克赛尔累积过程与资产价格

通货膨胀目标制的理论基础直接来源于魏克赛尔的累积过程理论。央行的利率政策不但会影响一般价格的上涨,而且会导致资产价格出现泡沫。现时的房产价格与未来的产出和通货膨胀关系密切,应该在CPI中给予一定的权重。低利率、低通胀和资产价格膨胀共存并不意味着累积过程理论失效,而是因为其反馈机制和通胀度量出现了问题。     

Dynamic environmental performance analysis: A Malmquist index approach

This article presents a general framework for dynamic environmental performance analysis by generalizing the approach proposed by Kuosmanen and Kortelainen [Kuosmanen, T., Kortelainen, M., 2005. Measuring Eco-Efficiency of Production with Data Envelopment Analysis. Journal of Industrial Ecology 9(4), 59-72.] from a static to a dynamic setting. For this purpose we construct an environmental performance index (EPI) by applying frontier efficiency techniques and a Malmquist index approach. Compared to other dynamic environmental productivity and efficiency analysis approaches based on these methods, our approach builds on the standard definition of eco-efficiency as it is presented in the ecological economics literature. Recognizing the importance to analyze the sources of environmental performance changes, we show how changes in overall environmental performance can be decomposed into changes in relative eco-efficiency and shifts in environmental technology, respectively. We apply the presented technique at the macro level to dynamic environmental performance analysis of 20 member states of the European Union in 1990-2003. According to the results, environmental technical change mostly explains the improvement in overall environmental performance, while relative eco-efficiency change has been minor for most countries during the sample period.     

Life Cycle Price Trends and Product Replacement: Implications for the Measurement of Inflation

The paper explores the extent to which products follow systematic pricing patterns over their life cycle and the impact this has on the measurement of inflation. Using a large U.S. scanner data set on supermarket products and applying flexible regression methods, we find that on average prices decline as items age. This life cycle price change is often attributed to quality difference in the construction of CPI as items are replaced due to disappearance or during sample rotations. This introduces a systematic bias in the measurement of inflation. For our data we find that the life cycle bias leads to the underestimation of inflation by around 0.30 percentage points each year for the products examined.     

世界国防科技工业综合实力评价

为客观准确地评价世界国防科技工业综合实力,构建了基于AHP-CRITIC-CTWF的国防科技工业综合实力评价指标体系和测算方法,利用层次分析法和CRITIC法进行主客观加权组合赋权,运用中心点混合三角白化权函数进行聚类分析。对20个代表性国家的国防科技工业综合实力进行了实证分析,结果表明：整体来看,各国国防科技工业综合实力四层次的分布格局较为明确;从准则层看,大部分国家国防科技工业各层面建设与综合实力水平有较大差别,有的国家综合实力排名靠前,但层面建设不足,限制了国防科技工业的发展,如俄罗斯;有的国家综合实力排名虽然不高,但在某些层面处于领先地位,成为其国防科技工业发展的重点和优势,如韩国。     

运用GAHP法建立研发人员绩效考评体系

本文运用群体层次分析法(GAHP)结合研发人员自身的特点,建立多级研发人员绩效考评体系,运用Hadamard凸组合集结判断矩阵,解决了考评体系制定过程中受决策者主观偏好影响较大,考评指标难以定量描述的问题。并结合该体系在一家企业的应用,说明了其在研发人员绩效考评方面应用的有效性。     

Regulatory ‘Balancing’ and the Efficiency of Green R&D

We identify and analyse several dynamic implications of setting environmental standards such as to balance marginal costs and benefits. The adoption of such a regulatory approach is shown to effect (i) the speed of improvement of abatement technologies; (ii) the direction (in a sense to be defined) of that improvement; (iii) its source and the distribution of the rents from it; and (iv) the rate of development of defensive (averting) technologies. Existing views are thoroughly synthesised in the context of a simple diagrammatic model, several new results are derived and at least one conventional wisdom questioned. The message of the analysis for legislators and regulators is that cost–benefit balancing should be done with care.     

基于风险控制的高校经济责任审计流程初探

高校经济责任审计随着高校规模的扩大和经济活动的频繁和复杂显得越来越重要.鉴于内部审计的特殊性,经济责任审计还存着着诸多问题,其中由于审计流程不规范引起的审计风险不容忽视.论文从规范高校领导干部经济责任审计流程入手,结合高校经济责任审计的现状和问题,分析审计各阶段的审计风险,提出完善审计流程的方案和防范审计风险的措施.     

Input–Output Structural Decomposition Analysis: A Critical Appraisal

Over the past decade, input–output structural decomposition analysis (SDA) has developed into a major analytical tool. We review the development of SDA and its relationship to other methodologies. We present the fundamental principles of alternative approaches to deriving SDA estimating equations and explore the various decompositions of changes in IO tables. We also identify several complications and unresolved issues. Most importantly, we find that a rigorous grounding in economic theory is lacking for SDA, but we are able to offer some suggestions as to how it might be established.     

Bouncing Back from Extreme Weather Events: Some Preliminary Findings on Resilience Barriers Facing Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprises

Extreme weather events (EWEs) pose unprecedented threats to modern societies and represent a much‐debated issue strongly interlinked with current development policies. Small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs), which constitute a driving force of economic growth, employment and total value added, remain highly vulnerable to and ill prepared for such environmental perturbations. This study investigates barriers to SMEs’ resilience to EWEs in an attempt to shed light on enabling factors that can define effective organizational responses to non‐linear environmental stimuli. Relying on structural equation modeling and data gathered from 109 SMEs that recently experienced EWE impacts, we link the general concept of SMEs’ resilience barriers to EWEs with a series of elements to determine specific internal and external factors that contribute the most to EWE resilience. In particular, external barriers of institutional conditions and mechanisms of support and guidance as well as internal barriers of resources and managerial perceptions are found to be the most critical ones in determining resilience. The assessment offers essential research evidence for practitioners on SME management and sets forth linkages with current mechanisms for policy interventions towards an appropriate resilience agenda for SMEs. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment