制度的博弈论解释批判——基于现实行路规则复杂多样性的分析

主流观点认为,制度是博弈过程中参与人的均衡策略,但对避免相向碰撞的行路规则的考察发现,现实中经济行为者采纳的惯例化规则远较制度的均衡策略论揭示的复杂多样。制度博弈均衡策略论的这种不充足解释力不仅仅是因为现有的制度博弈模型忽略了一些现实的基本行为策略,也因为博弈论框架只是一个有关社会交互问题的部分性分析框架,并不能覆盖所有的解决社会交互问题的方法。一个统一性的制度解释框架宜放弃博弈论的分析思路,更多地考虑制度的互补性问题。     

浅谈房屋权属登记薄的填制和对外利用规则

就本人在理论和实际工作中对自治区房屋权属登记簿的填制和对外利用规则谈谈个人的粗浅认识。     

基于AHP法的建筑公司财务风险评价

针对建筑公司财务管理的现状,提出了在财务管理中应用AHP法进行财务风险评价,同时结合模糊数学理论,构建了一个财务风险评价定性化与定量化结合的指标体系,并基于AHP法对建筑公司进行了财务风险评价。     

Spatial modelling of claim frequency and claim size in non-life insurance

In this paper, models for claim frequency and average claim size in non-life insurance are considered. Both covariates and spatial random effects are included allowing the modelling of a spatial dependency pattern. We assume a Poisson model for the number of claims, while claim size is modelled using a Gamma distribution. However, in contrast to the usual compound Poisson model, we allow for dependencies between claim size and claim frequency. A fully Bayesian approach is followed, parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The issue of model comparison is thoroughly addressed. Besides the deviance information criterion and the predictive model choice criterion, we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. We give an application to a comprehensive data set from a German car insurance company. The inclusion of spatial effects significantly improves the models for both claim frequency and claim size, and also leads to more accurate predictions of the total claim sizes. Further, we detect significant dependencies between the number of claims and claim size. Both spatial and number of claims effects are interpreted and quantified from an actuarial point of view.     

International Market Segmentation and Cross-Export Strategies Development Case Study: Iranian Furniture Industry

ABSTRACT

By developing an international market and significant differences between countries in this regard, segmentation becomes an increasingly important concept in marketing. In this article, the international market of Iranian furniture industry is segmented and cross-exporting strategies are developed to increase the market share of Iranian furniture in each segment. To achieve this, two distance functions are introduced based on correlation between export groups to cluster countries with k-means algorithm. After market segmentation for increasing sales in each segment, cross-exporting strategies are predicted by extracting association rules in each segment based on Apriori algorithm to set export baskets.     

‘Free actors’ and organizations: critical remarks about the new career literature,based on French insights

What is the reality of contemporary careers? Have individuals become masters of their professional destiny? While the ‘new career literature’ puts forward the figure of an individual free to invent his/her career (the ‘free actor model’), this article shows that the changes purported to affect careers are less radical than they seem. Despite a weakening of environments, discriminating career mechanisms are still imposed on cadres, at least in France. Because individuals do not always have the means or the will to escape those mechanisms, ‘external clues’ continue to mark careers more than the new career literature supposes. To account for the realities observed in France, this paper proposes a specific view on careers, which highlights why career rules still exist in the country.     

A hybrid parallel genetic algorithm for yard crane scheduling

This paper aims at postulating a novel strategy in terms of yard crane scheduling. In this study, a dynamic scheduling model using objective programming for yard cranes is initially developed based on rolling-horizon approach. To resolve the NP-complete problem regarding the yard crane scheduling, a hybrid algorithm, which employs heuristic rules and parallel genetic algorithm (PGA), is then employed. Then a simulation model is developed for evaluating this approach. Finally, numerical experiments on a specific container terminal yard are used for system illustration. Computational results suggest that the proposed method is able to solve the problem efficiently.     

Cognitive Theory and Moral Behavior: The Contribution of F. A. Hayek to Business Ethics

This paper shows how business ethics as a concept may be approached from a cognitive viewpoint. Following F. A. Hayek's cognitive theory, I argue that moral behavior evolves and changes because of individual perception and action. Individual moral behavior becomes a moral rule when prominently displayed by members of a certain society in a specific situation. A set of moral rules eventually forms the ethical code of a society, of which business ethics codes are only a part. By focusing on the concept of "limited" or "dispersed knowledge" that underlies the cognitive approach, I show that universal ethical norms that should lead to defined outcomes cannot exist. This approach moreover shows the limits of deliberate rule-setting. Attempts to deliberately impose universal ethical rules on societies may turn out to be harmful for societal development and lead to an abuse of governmental power.     

A note on Bossert,Pattanaik and Xu's “Choice under complete uncertainty: axiomatic characterization of some decision rules”

Summary. Recent work by Bossert, Pattanaik and Xu provides axiomatic characterizations of some decision rules for individual decision making under complete uncertainty. This note shows that, in the case of two of these rules, they do not satisfy one of the axioms used for their characterization. A counterexample illustrating this fact is provided, as well as an alternative way to characterize the two rules under consideration, mantaining as far as possible the original axioms proposed by Bossert, Pattanaik and Xu. Received: November 3, 2000; revised version: March 1, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I am grateful for the encouragement and support of Professor Prasanta Pattanaik. I thank also the suggestions of two anonymous referees. This work was made during an academic visit to the Department of Economics of the University of California in Riverside (UCR). The visit was possible thanks to an invitation by the UCR and the financial support of the Public University of Navarra, the Government of Navarra, and the CICYT (SEC96-0858).