Time series reversal in trend-following strategies

This paper empirically studies the reversal pattern following the formation of trend-following signals in the time series context. This reversal pattern is statistically significant and usually occurs between 12 and 24 months after the formation of trend-following signals. Employing a universe of 55 liquid futures, we find that instruments with sell signals in the trend-following portfolio (‘losers’) contribute to this type of reversal, even if their profits are not realised. The instruments with buy signals in the trend-following portfolio (‘winners’) contribute much less. A double-sorted investment strategy based on both return continuation and reversal yields to portfolio gains which are significantly higher than that of the corresponding trend-following strategy.     

政府间关系调整的一种新视野：从等级制模式到网络模式

等级制模式和网络模式是政府间关系的两种模式。信息技术的发展，人民民主意识的增强，社会主义市场经济体制的不断完善，这三个要素客观上要求我国政府间关系从等级制模式向网络模式转变。简化政府组织间的层级结构、中央向地方氍合理分权、加强地方政府间的横向合作和实行网络合作治理，是实现我国政府间关系从等级制模式向网络模式转变的路径依赖。     

Reversal of 3‐day losers and continuation of 3‐day winners on the NASDAQ

Using only the 200 large-cap securities that make up the NYSE 100 and NASDAQ 100, this study investigates 130 randomly selected formation periods from January 2000 through December 2012. During these formation periods, the three worst and three best performing stocks (based on excess return) are flagged. Once flagged, the subsequent 10-day holding period excess returns are calculated. Results indicate that NYSE securities demonstrate significant return reversal, but not return momentum. Conversely, the worst performing NASDAQ securities demonstrate return reversal, whereas the best performing NASDAQ securities demonstrate return momentum. Results are robust to the number of best and worst stocks that are flagged. Results are also robust to other combinations of formation and holding period lengths.     

Safehavenness of currencies

This study assesses the ‘safehavenness’ of a number of currencies with a view to providing a better understanding of how capital flow tends to react to a sharp increase in global risk aversion in turbulent times. It focuses on how the currencies are perceived by international investors or, more specifically, whether they are seen as safe-haven or risky currencies. To assess the safehavenness of the currency, we use risk reversal, which is the price difference between the call and put options of a currency, as it reflects how disproportionately market participants are willing to pay to hedge against its appreciation or depreciation. The relationship between the risk reversal of the currency and global risk aversion is estimated by means of parametric and non-parametric regressions that allow us to capture currency behaviour in times of extreme adversity, that is, the tail risk. Our empirical results found the Japanese yen and, to a lesser extent, the Hong Kong dollar to be the only safe havens under stressful conditions among the 34 currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar.     

How gradualist are Chinese reforms? Evidence from rural income determinants

Gradualist reform (GR) is a strategy that implements partial and incremental reforms at the beginning but gradually deepens the reforms over time. Using income determinants in rural China as the measure of the GR hypothesis, this paper provides a direct test of the widely accepted claim that China has followed a GR strategy. In the sense that reform deepens, production factors should become more important income determinants over time. Our difference-in-difference analysis, based on a large panel dataset from fixed-site rural surveys conducted between 1986 and 2002, shows that the efficiency of return to production factors deteriorated over time instead. Households that had more production resources, such as land and labor, or that devoted more labor and time to entrepreneurial activities experienced better income growth in the 1980s, but households with better political status did so in the 1990s. Further difference-in-difference analyses show that these income patterns are related to an inefficient credit allocation due to government interference in the 1990s compared to market mechanisms in the 1980s. Overall, the empirical evidence on the income determinants and on rural finance does not support the GR hypothesis on China's reform path.     

Risk diversification gains from metropolitan housing assets

The study analyzes the roles of metropolitan housing assets in risk diversification by assessing intertemporal hedging demands for multi‐asset portfolios, which include metropolitan houses, REITs, stocks, bonds, and riskless assets. Investors substitute housing assets in high‐population MSAs with those in low‐population cities, and they switch their holdings of housing assets to less risky bonds in the 2007–2008 housing bust. The findings from the multi‐period portfolio choice problem provide evidence for momentum reversal since forward‐looking investors substitute bottom metropolitan housing assets for top ones in the housing boom, and the GTTB index and the lagged REIT price return have negative impacts on various asset returns.     

FFT快速捕获算法在GPSC／A码与P（Y）码中的应用

一种快速、有效的GPS信号捕获方法是通过在整段数据上并行搜索伪码相位,对一段输入数字中频(IF)序列和一段本地复现伪码序列进行快速傅里叶变换(FFT)运算来实现。分析了用FFT实现循环相关及其在GPS C/A码捕获中的应用,采用整区间相关、扩展复现码折叠、叠加相加和叠加丢弃法实现P(Y)码快速直接捕获,用补零、线性内插、Sinc内插、平均相关和双倍长度补零法解决计算点数问题,用扩展计算点数方法解决由导航数据引起的相位反转、超长序列与短序列进行线形相关运算及用循环相关实现线形相关等应用中的具体问题。     

The choice at the checkout: Quantifying demand across payment instruments

Dramatic changes have occurred in the U.S. payment system over the past two decades, most notably an explosion in electronic card-based payments. This shift has led to a series of policy debates driven in part by consumers' choice of payment instruments. Using a new nationally representative survey, we transform consumer responses to open-ended questions into product rankings and estimate a characteristics-based rank-order logit model in order to quantify consumer substitution among payment methods. Our estimates are then used to conduct supply-driven and demand-driven counterfactual experiments in order to estimate market share and cost effects. From a counterfactual experiment in which merchants stop accepting credit cards, we predict merchant costs to decline substantially. Because merchants accept credit cards nonetheless, we regard our finding as evidence either that the credit card networks hold market power, or that merchants experience unmeasured intangible benefits from credit card acceptance. We also predict that contactless debit will take market share from cash, checks, and credit, and that the age/cohort effect alone is unlikely to cause debit card use to increase substantially over a 10-year period.     

德国希斯五米滚齿机主驱动不能反转维修技术探讨

通过对德国希斯五米滚齿机转矩方向变换电路的分析,诊断机床不能反转的原因。     

Two-stage rank estimation of quantile index models

This paper estimates a class of models which satisfy a monotonicity condition on the conditional quantile function of the response variable. This class includes as a special case the monotonic transformation model with the error term satisfying a conditional quantile restriction, thus allowing for very general forms of conditional heteroscedasticity. A two-stage approach is adopted to estimate the relevant parameters. In the first stage the conditional quantile function is estimated nonparametrically by the local polynomial estimator discussed in Chaudhuri (Journal of Multivariate Analysis 39 (1991a) 246–269; Annals of Statistics 19 (1991b) 760–777) and Cavanagh (1996, Preprint). In the second stage, the monotonicity of the quantile function is exploited to estimate the parameters of interest by maximizing a rank-based objective function. The proposed estimator is shown to have desirable asymptotic properties and can then also be used for dimensionality reduction or to estimate the unknown structural function in the context of a transformation model.