民间借贷之现状与抉择探析

民间借贷的规模占据农村、城镇中小企业资金借贷的很大比例，尤其在个体工商户中所占比例更大。民间借贷之所以能够长期存在，有其存在的必然性。民间借贷对于提供资金资源、调整经济结构等方面具有积极的意义，但同时也有消极的影响。因此，应当从理论和政策上给予民间借贷一个合适的定位。同时，应建立民间借贷登记制度．规范其利率管理，逐步发挥其市场导向优势，使民间借贷合法化、公开化。     

实物期权定价模型在我国应用的障碍分析

实物期权评估方法是20世纪应环境变化的要求发展起来的新的项目评估方法之一。我国的项目评估研究和实践领域也高度关注该方法,以应对今天复杂多变的经济环境。但是,我国目前经济环境特征决定了国外模式在我国不能完全适应,我们在和世界接轨的时候,也必须做出改进。本文结合我国经济环境详细分析了实物期权两种定价模式中各个定价参数在获得过程中所面对的部分障碍,为今后期权评估方法在我国的应用提出部分建议。     

卖方分析师佣金解绑改革与中国实践--基于MiFIDⅡ的思考

卖方分析师利益冲突问题损害了投资者利益以及市场稳定性。为提高分析师独立性,欧洲2018年出台的《欧盟金融工具市场指令Ⅱ》首次拆分了分析师的分仓佣金与研究费用。研究发现,该举措实施后,伴随着卖方研究质量提升、低质量分析师退出市场,分析师利益冲突问题得到缓解,促进了卖方服务内部化转型、买方研究加速形成以及投资者交易透明度的提升,但同时也带来了研报价格恶性竞争、市场信息环境受损、人才非优流动等负面影响。我国分析师佣金制度存在披露透明度不足、研究服务界定不明、佣金分配缺乏有效监管等问题,现阶段完全解绑佣金可能引发潜在风险,应采取相对柔性的改革思路。监管机构宜推动改革基金管理费用,塑造市场激励机制;券商应提升综合研究能力,推进业务模式转型,探索差异化发展之路。     

What lies beneath—Negative interest rates and bank lending

We study the transmission of negative interest rates to bank lending around an unexpected policy rate cut into deep negative territory by the Swiss National Bank (−0.75%). We exploit a rich data set on transaction-level corporate loans matched with bank balance sheet data. We find that banks more affected by negative interest rates offer looser lending terms and lend more than other banks. This result is consistent with the risk-taking channel, where a lower policy rate spurs bank risk-taking to maintain profits. The result implies that, even in such deep negative territory, the reversal rate has not yet been hit.     

房地产还原利率的构成与测算

从分析投资的风险补偿入手，提出了房地产还原利率的构成和测算公式，同时指出了构成房地产还原利率的银行利率应是复利计算方式下，相应年期的利率，然后探讨了房地产还原利率各构成部分的测算过程，并以中国房地产市场个人住房抵押贷款市场为例，给出了不同收益年限的房地产还原利率参考数据。     

房地产价格波动与投机行为--对中国14城市的实证研究

本文首先构建了适合中国的房地产投机理论模型,然后利用该模型对中国14个城市房地产价格波动与投机行为的关系进行实证研究.对14城市的时间序列数据研究结果表明各城市房地产投机水平都很高,个别城市更加突出.通过对14城市的截面数据分析,可以看出可支配收入对房地产价格没有显著影响,这些城市房地产价格的上升,主要是由投机来推动的,而且整体投机度非常高,说明房地产价格极大的偏离长期均衡值,市场出现了非理性繁荣,政府和产业部门应该采取适当的措施,积极引导消费者和投资者,为建立均衡的房地产市场提供良好的宏观和微观环境.     

A Model of the Representation of Interests in a Compound Democracy

This paper provides a model of democratic government as a compound of independent elective and non elective centers of power that compete in fostering the demands of voters and of interest groups. The analysis describes how interests of voters and of pressure groups are represented and under what conditions the compound democracy is more responsive to voters' or to interest groups' demands. These conditions are shown to depend on the center of power's relative opportunity costs at serving a plurality of interests and on the severeness of informational asymmetries between voters and interest groups.     

The long-run effects of the real exchange rate on employment and wages in Canadian manufacturing

ABSTRACT

The literature on real exchange rate effects on the labour market is dominated by short-run analysis showing that there is heterogeneity in the responses of firms or industries to a real exchange rate shock. Analysing data on Canadian manufacturing industries, I conclude that there is a common long-run equilibrium across all manufacturing industries controlling for their openness to trade after varying adjustments to a real exchange rate shock have taken place. This conclusion is important from the perspective of policy making because it helps to form expectations about the effects of a real exchange rate movement on the labour market. The results suggest that real appreciation leads to economically significant reductions in employment in manufacturing in the long run. Real wages decrease in industries that are highly engaged in international trade and somewhat increase in industries that are relatively closed to international trade. Both employment and real wages converge quickly to the long-run equilibrium.     

我国利率市场化条件下商业银行利率风险管理

利率的市场化改革在推动金融深化,促进经济发展的同时,也使得商业银行所面临的利率风险加大。文章通过对利率市场化进程中商业银行的利率风险及其类型进行分析,提出了我国商业银行利率风险管理的措施。     

垄断与产权:我国利率市场化的制度性障碍

在缺乏竞争的金融体系下，借贷价格偏离均衡价格，消费剩余减少，资源配置扭曲，金融运行效率降低。在我国，资金供应依然主要由居于垄断地位的国有商业银行及其变种组成和资金需求依然主要由国有企业及其变种组成的情况下，利率市场化会使得资金价格扭曲和变形，理论上推演的利率市场化预期效果在很大程度上无法实现。我国利率市场化的时间表只能视微观经济主体市场化的进程而定。