Asymmetric cointegration with threshold adjustment model of exchange rates and the trade balance in Turkey

This paper aims to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates in Turkey using the asymmetric error correction model with threshold cointegration. The results provide new evidence for the asymmetric long-run relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates. Besides, deviations from the long-run equilibrium due to a relative increase in real exchange rates have a lower speed of adjustment in comparison to the deviations caused by a relative decrease in real exchange rates.     

人民币汇率形成机制改革的多层面考察

人民币汇率形成机制改革的经济效应可以从宏观、微观和金融市场三个层面进行考察。从宏观层面看,汇率改革能够提高我国货币政策的独立性,但是对减少贸易失衡和调整国际收支的作用并不明显,反而由于持续的升值预期导致大规模资本流入,影响经济金融稳定。从微观层面看.人民币升值对纺织业等行业产生了比较明显的冲击,非贸易品部门则受益于人民币升值,FDI 投资区位的选择也发生了变化,这些都有利于我国转变过度外向型的经济结构。从市场层面看,更大的汇率弹性使企业和金融机构面临的外汇风险上升,但同时也有利于促进外汇市场发展和推动资本账户开放。     

Testing the Unstable Middle and Two Corners Hypotheses About Exchange Rate Regimes

The recent rash of international currency crises has generated considerable interest in the role that exchange rate regimes have played in contributing to these crises. Many economists have argued that efforts to operate adjustably pegged exchange rate regimes have been a major contributor to “the unstable middle” hypothesis and some have argued that this unstable middle is so broad that only the two corners of hard fixes or floating rates will be stable in a world of high capital mobility—the two corners or bipolar hypothesis. Two recent empirical studies by researchers at the International Monetary Fund reach opposing conclusions on these issues. We examine the issue further and show that conclusions can be quite sensitive to how exchange rate regimes are grouped into categories and the measures of currency crises that are used. In general we find that the dead center of the adjustable peg is by far the most crisis prone broad type of exchange rate regimes, but that countries need not go all the way to freely floating rates or hard fixes to substantially reduce the risks of currency crises.

Modeling and Extrapolating Wheat Producer Support Using Income and Other Factors

Using wheat market support data from 55 countries for 1961–2011 from the World Bank Agricultural Distortion database, we develop a fixed effect model that shows a more complicated, nonlinear relationship between income and wheat support and its components than previously realised. We find that income generally has a greater effect on border market price support than on domestic price support. Moreover, the difference between these types of support is greater for net importers than for net exporters and has increased with the URAA or WTO accession. Holding other variables constant, the wheat support level of China, driven mainly by border market price support, is projected to rise with future income growth. Meanwhile, Japan is projected to maintain its high level of support, while the US and EU are projected to maintain their lower levels of support. These results are relevant in the context of multilateral trade negotiations, arguing against a narrow focus on past or current policy profiles and for long‐run analyses that might mistakenly rest on the inconsistent assumptions of constant agricultural policies against the backdrop of rising incomes.     

Impact of the 2014 Suspension Agreement on sugar between the United States and Mexico

In December 2014, the U.S. and Mexico agreed to a suspension agreement that set a $22.25/cwt import price floor on U.S. sugar imports from Mexico. A partial equilibrium trade model was developed to estimate the economic impact the agreement would have had if it had been in effect from 2008 to 2014. In years when the price floor would have been binding, on average, U.S. producers would have gained $138 million and Mexican producers would have lost $218 million. However, total Mexican welfare would have actually increased by $11.5 million. Furthermore, the average price floor that would have maximized total Mexican welfare over that period is $22.76/cwt. Also, under certain supply and demand elasticity conditions, the average price floor that would have maximized joint U.S. and Mexican producer welfare over that period is $21.91/cwt. The latter two estimates are both close to the actual price floor agreed to in the 2014 Suspension Agreement.     

人民币汇率预测及方法选择——基于ARIMA与GARCH模型

自2005年7月人民币汇率改革以来,人民币持续升值,已影响到经济生活的各个方面,正确分析与预测汇价及其波动对各经济主体金融政策与投融资决策的制定有着十分重要的意义。本文选取国内外学者较为认同的ARIMA和GARCH模型对人民币美元汇率建模,并对其预测误差进行分析,结果表明在对人民币兑美元中间价的预测中,GARCH模型预测相对ARIMA模型更优。     

人民币汇率波动对国际企业价值影响实证研究

双对数计量经济模型可以较为准确地描述人民币汇率对国际企业价值的影响.实证分析表明,人民币汇率对企业中短期产生的影响较大,且影响强度随着国际企业外贸收入占主营业务收入比例的增长而增大.通过对行业指数(包括非金融行业指数和金融行业指数)的中期历史数据的分析,发现不同行业受到外汇风险的影响各有不同.作为研究结果的应用,根据实证结论有针对性地提出了外汇风险管理建议.     

集体林权改革下的林业经济增长因素分析——以辽宁省为例

根据1982～2008年辽宁省林业经济发展的相关数据,采用C-D生产函数模型,实证分析了林业投资、劳动力、林业科技进步、产权制度等要素对辽宁省林业经济增长的影响。结果表明,集体林改下辽宁省林业经济整体呈快速上升趋势,27年间资本、劳动力、科技进步的产出弹性分别为0.4,0.55,0.06,对经济增长的贡献率分别为37.7%,19.15%和43.15%,林改作为政策制度因素对于林业经济增长具有正向的推动作用。     

我国水禽全要素生产率增长和贡献及区域差异分析

[目的]通过测算水禽全要素生产率（TFP）来评估水禽的投入产出效率,同时分别对比各养殖区域之间TFP的增长率及贡献的差异。[方法]文章依托全国22个省、（市、自治区）水禽投入产出数据,基于索洛残差法和DEA-Malmquist指数法分别从水禽TFP指数、TFP增长率和TFP贡献率3个角度展开分析。[结果]（1）全国水禽TFP均值为1.352,大多数地区的水禽TFP指数均大于1,山东省的技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率均为全国第一;（2）全国水禽TFP增长率平均值为0.19,水禽TFP贡献率平均值为120%,TFP贡献率和增长率较上一年都有所提升;（3）区域差异比较后发现,西南地区的水禽TFP指数、TFP增长率和水禽TFP贡献率的均值最大,而华中地区的3个指标均值均为全国最小,水禽的TFP区域特征呈现出“北向南移”趋势。[结论]技术进步对水禽产业发展作出了很大的贡献,说明水禽产业需要进一步加强新技术投入;突发事件一定程度上刺激了水禽产量的增长,说明不仅要预防突发事件,而且要不断挖掘突发事件后的边际效应;水禽TFP区域差异显著,要求结合区域特征分析后因地制宜施策,最终提升水禽生产要素投入效率...