资源约束与地区经济收敛——基于资源稀缺性与资源配置力的考察

本文从资源稀缺性出发,提出并运用资源配置力这一新的分析工具,对2003年以来中国所面临的经济增长、资源约束与区域经济变动状况作了分析。结果表明,市场供求关系变化导致资源稀缺的结构性变迁与地域性转移,使地区资源配置力与经济竞争力发展相应变动。东部沿海能源与矿产等资源短缺地区备受资源约束递增的压力;中西部尤其是能源与矿产等资源富集地区资源配置力与经济竞争力明显递增,从而出现地区经济收敛趋势。     

企业人力资产确认及其计量模型改进

本文认为,企业人力资产的确认与计量应与人力资源管理紧密结合,同时应将“区别考评制度”引入对企业人力资产的确认及对人力资源价值的计量中,并对原有个体和整体人力资源价值的计量模型进行了改进。     

企业人力资源管理有效性研究

本文通过分析企业中人力资源经理和直线经理对人力资源管理实践的相关问题的认知评价,研究了中国本土企业的人力资源管理实践有效性的问题。研究数据表明,目前企业中直线经理和人力资源经理对于人力资源管理各功能的重要性认知相同,但在人力资源管理对于企业内部客户服务的有效性的认知和评价标准存在显著差异。本研究的意义在于帮助企业从人力资源管理职能的角度,加强人力资源管理系统与企业战略目标实现的匹配,为改善企业业绩的“捆绑性”的实践提供实证依据。     

Panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence

In this paper alternative approaches for testing the unit root hypothesis in panel data are considered. First, a robust version of the Dickey-Fuller t -statistic under contemporaneous correlated errors is suggested. Second, the GLS t -statistic is considered, which is based on the t -statistic of the transformed model. The asymptotic power of both tests is compared against a sequence of local alternatives. To adjust for short-run serial correlation of the errors, we propose a pre-whitening procedure that yields a test statistic with a standard normal limiting distribution as N and T tends to infinity. The test procedure is further generalized to accommodate individual specific intercepts or linear time trends. From our Monte Carlo simulations it turns out that the robust OLS t -statistic performs well with respect to size and power, whereas the GLS t -statistic may suffer from severe size distortions in small and moderate sample sizes. The tests are applied to test for a unit root in real exchange rates.     

Assessment of the agricultural sustainability of Shaanxi Province,China

It is significant for the study on the sustainable development of regional agriculture to monitor and measurethe trend of agricultural development with an effective method. The sustainable development of regional agricultureshould accord with regional population, rural economic development, social progress, resource and environmentalsupport. This paper establishes the evaluating indicators system of sustainable development of regional agriculture,evaluates the agricultural sustainable development in Shaanxi Province with a comprehensive multi-indicator method,analyzes the support of resource and environment for regional agriculture by the resource-development index and theenvironment-development index, and gets the conclusion that the indicators, such as education level, the income gapbetween urban and rural residents, the per capita area under cultivation and the consumption of pesticides and chemicalfertilizers per hectare, are the main factors to restrict agricultural sustainability, and that the pressure of the developmentof subsystems of population, economy and society on the subsystems of resource and environment turns out to bestronger and stronger. Agricultural environment gets better, but resource becomes one of the important factors to restrictthe development of regional agriculture. In a word, this paper highlights the potentials and limitations of sustainableagriculture of Shaanxi and helps identify the development direction in the future.     

Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

积极开发海洋资源 建设海洋经济强国

海洋是全球生命支持系统的重要组成部分，是人类社会可持续发展的宝贵财富，也是实现国家政治、经济和军事战略的重要舞台。我国是世界上人口最多的沿海国家，也是海洋大国之一，中华民族的可持续发展与兴盛必然越来越多地依赖海洋。开发海洋资源、发展海洋经济、建设海洋经济强国是一项具有战略意义的历史任务。我国具有开发利用海洋的优越条件和战略性需要，应该把海洋开发作为跨世纪治国兴邦的国家发展战略。我国具有方便地进入海洋的区位优势和环境条件，应该成为亲海民族，陆地人均自然资源占有量少，客观上需要把海洋作为后备资源基地，世界历史经验证明，疏远海洋的民族必然落后。积极开发海洋资源，制定蓝色工程计划，发展海洋产业群；开发蓝色国主，建设海洋经济带，用20～30年时间把我国建成海洋经济强国。本文纵横论证了建设海洋经济强国的标准、条件、指导方针和目标、主要任务以及保障措施等，提出了加强海洋意识教育、实施科教兴海战略、建立海洋综合管理体制、实行“依法治海”、建立海洋综合管理的财政保证机制、加强海洋公用基础设施建设、提高公益性服务能力和加强国际合诈等多项具体建议措施，多元化推动我国的海洋经济强国建设。     

Risk management under extreme events

This article presents two applications of extreme value theory (EVT) to financial markets: computation of value at risk (VaR) and cross-section dependence of extreme returns (i.e., tail dependence). We use a sample comprised of the United States, Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Our main findings are the following. First, on average, EVT gives the most accurate estimate of VaR. Second, tail dependence of paired returns decreases substantially when both heteroscedasticity and serial correlation are filtered out by a multivariate GARCH model. Both findings are in agreement with previous research in this area for other financial markets.     

Inference with Dependent Data in Accounting and Finance Applications

We review developments in conducting inference for model parameters in the presence of intertemporal and cross‐sectional dependence with an emphasis on panel data applications. We review the use of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) standard error estimators, which include the standard clustered and multiway clustered estimators, and discuss alternative sample‐splitting inference procedures, such as the Fama–Macbeth procedure, within this context. We outline pros and cons of the different procedures. We then illustrate the properties of the discussed procedures within a simulation experiment designed to mimic the type of firm‐level panel data that might be encountered in accounting and finance applications. Our conclusion, based on theoretical properties and simulation performance, is that sample‐splitting procedures with suitably chosen splits are the most likely to deliver robust inferential statements with approximately correct coverage properties in the types of large, heterogeneous panels many researchers are likely to face.     

Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol for structured expert judgement

Expert judgement is pervasive in all forms of risk analysis, yet the development of tools to deal with such judgements in a repeatable and transparent fashion is relatively recent. This work outlines new findings related to an approach to expert elicitation termed the IDEA protocol. IDEA combines psychologically robust interactions among experts with mathematical aggregation of individual estimates. In particular, this research explores whether communication among experts adversely effects the reliability of group estimates. Using data from estimates of the outcomes of geopolitical events, we find that loss of independence is relatively modest and it is compensated by improvements in group accuracy.