Bankruptcy filings before and after implementation of the bankruptcy reform law

After the effective date of the Bankruptcy Reform Act (1979), bankruptcy filings rose sharply in most states. The increase can be ascribed partially to the fact that unemployment rose and working hours declined from 1978 to 1980. In addition, state laws on garnishment had a greater effect on bankruptcy filings in 1980 than in 1978. Nonetheless, a significant increase in filing rates from 1978 to 1980 could not be accounted for by changes in state laws or employment conditions. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that the Act, per se, contributed to the increase in bankruptcy filings.     

Comparing two diverse methods for generating perceptual maps: Multidimensional scaling versus the hand-drawn technique

Multidimensional scaling techniques have lately been subjected to criticism because of a supposed lack of reliability and validity. Yet, no alternative cognitive map-producing techniques have been suggested. The present research describes a graphic technique for developing cognitive maps and compares this technique to multidimensional scaling in terms of reliability and validity. The two techniques are also compared in terms of perceived subject difficulty in completing the tasks and the ability of each technique to predict future brand behavior.     

传道与救世--李提摩太在“丁戊奇荒”中的赈灾活动评述

“丁戊奇荒”给中国百姓带来了深重灾难,同时也给李提摩太顺利传教提供了契机,他素怀匡时济世的仁爱之心,积极参与救灾,募集赈银,献计献策,为自己和来华传教士群体赢得了信任和认可。李提摩太灾后更是与清政府互动博弈,圣俗协商,参与各种社会政治事务,寻求“救国良策”,促进了晚清社会变革和历史进程。     

Entry inclinations under uncertainty

This paper considers the market entry decision of a potential entrant that behaves as if it knew the future market demand and its own cost schedules, and formulates a set of probability judgements as to the unknown output rates that its future rivals will maintain. The special case where entry is free and each in-market seller, as well as the potential entrant, assumes that the others will not alter their production provokes the classic Cournot-Stackelberg situation. Although one might suspect that uncertainty would tend to inhibit entry as compared with an equivalent, in the expected-value sense, certainty situation, this is not at all the case. The suspucion is not necessarily true even when management is risk averse.     

Understanding the motivations of coastal residents to voluntarily purchase federal flood insurance

Federally-backed flood insurance is the primary mechanism by which residents in the United States (US) prepare for and recover from floods. While there is a growing literature on the general uptake of flood insurance, little work has been done to address the factors motivating residents to voluntarily buy and maintain federally-based insurance policies. We address this issue by conducting a survey of coastal residents in four localities in Texas and Florida. Based on survey responses, we quantitatively examine the factors influencing whether residents located outside of the 100-year floodplain obtain insurance policies when it is not required. Using two-sample t-tests and binary logistic regression analysis to control for multiple contextual and psychological variables, we statistically isolate the factors contributing most to the decision to purchase insurance. Our findings indicate that a resident located outside the 100-year floodplain who has voluntarily purchased federal flood insurance can be characterized, on average, as more highly educated, living in relatively expensive homes, and a long-time resident who thinks about flood hazard relatively infrequently but who, nonetheless, thinks flood insurance is relatively affordable. Unexpectedly, the physical proximity of a respondent to flood hazard areas makes little or no discernible difference in the decision to obtain flood insurance.     

Detecting local environmental change: the role of experience in shaping risk judgments about global warming

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding, heat waves, and wildfires). As a result, it is often reasoned that as more individuals experience unusual weather patterns that are consistent with changing climate conditions, the more their concern about global warming will increase, and the more motivated they will become to respond and address the problem effectively. Social science research evaluating the relationships between personal experiences with and risk perceptions of climate change, however, show mixed results. Here, we analyze a representative statewide survey of Floridians and compare their risk perceptions of five-year trends in climate change with local weather station data from the five years preceding the survey. The results show that Floridians are unable to detect five-year increases in temperature, but some can detect changes in precipitation. Despite an inability to detect the correct direction of change, respondents were significantly more likely than not to correctly identify the season in which most change occurred. Nevertheless, compared to local experience, risk perceptions of climate change were more strongly predicted by subjective experiences of environmental change, personal beliefs about climate change, and political ideology. Results from the study suggest that long-term changes in climate patterns and extreme weather events need to be interpreted by weather and climate experts within the context of climate change; individuals cannot be expected to detect or comprehend such complex linkages directly.     

海南国际旅游岛建设的国际经验借鉴——佛罗里达案例剖析

学习借鉴国际经验,探索新的发展思路和路径,对海南国际旅游岛建设而言具有重要意义。选择与海南发展基础和发展条件具有高度相似性的美国佛罗里达州为对象,深入剖析150多年来佛罗里达经济社会持续发展的历程阶段、动力来源及基本经验等,从中获取对海南国际旅游岛建设的相关启示,同时期望对我国其他地区的转型发展提供经验参考。     

Missing Pieces in Ecosystem Restoration: The Case of the Florida Everglades

The largest ecosystem restoration in the world-a $7.8 billion rescue package-is now beginning in the Florida Everglades. This paper examines both the economic impact of the restoration itself and those pieces that are 'missing' from the official project analysis; namely, increased tourism, urban construction, in-migration, and changing agricultural patterns. These pieces comprise a variety of scenarios that are tested for a 45 year planning period with an augmented input-output model derived from a regional SAM. The new output and employment generated by the 'missing pieces', which are small relative to the vast economic base of the region, do represent a considerable increase over the annual growth, especially by the year 2045. We conclude with a discussion of ways in which a growing regional economy might be reconciled with ecosystem restoration.