ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators with the aim to provide early signals for turning points in the euro area headline and core inflation cycles. The headline (core) ALICE leads the reference cycle by three (four) months and the lead times extend to five (nine) months based on longer-leading series. Both ALICE indicators signalled turning points in the inflation cycles ex post and also performed well in a simulated real-time exercise. Moreover, in particular the headline ALICE also appeared to be useful for quantitative forecasting of the direction and level of inflation.     

Tempering effects of (dependent) background risks: A mean-variance analysis of portfolio selection

In a mean variance framework, we analyse risk taking in the presence of a (possibly) dependent background risk, exemplified in a linear portfolio selection problem. We first characterise the comparative statics of changes in the distribution and dependence structure of the background risk. For unfair, undesirable and loss-aggravating increases in background risks (both dependent and independent), we then present necessary and sufficient restrictions on preferences such that greater background uncertainty leads to reduced risk taking. With mean-variance preferences, these restrictions boil down to simple conditions on the marginal rate of substitution between risk and return. They can be easily related to familiar notions such as risk vulnerability, properness or standardness.     

风险评估标准和儿童用品风险评估研究

本文对国内外的风险评估相关标准进行了研究,分析了标准术语、适用领域方面的差异,总结了产品质量安全风险评估的一般过程,并提出了儿童用品质量安全风险评估的构想。     

论企业理财模式创新——企业分拆

本文着重论述了企业分拆的基本原理及其广阔的应用前景，指出在充分发挥企业分拆的各种优势的同时，应控制和防范其中的风险。     

Natural resource rents and internal conflicts: Can decentralization lift the curse?

We study how natural resource rents affect the risk of internal conflict within countries and how the federal structure of countries influences this relationship. Natural resource abundance may induce excessive rent-seeking and thus increase the risk of internal conflict. Fiscal and political decentralization as an institutional arrangement for rent-sharing and political codetermination of regions within a country may limit the destructive effect of natural resource rents on internal stability. Using cross-country and panel data from more than 90 countries covering the period 1984–2004, we find evidence that natural resource rents indeed increase the risk of internal conflict, but this relationship is significantly mitigated by political decentralization.     

关于证券市场投资者风险偏好的实证研究

根据显现偏好理论,投资者的投资行为显现了其内在的风险偏好。在本文中,采用均衡分析方法,以中国证券市场中的指数序列为样本,综合期望收益、方差,自相关系数等统计量,准确反映证券组合的投资价值,揭示市场中投资者作为一个整体所具有的风险偏好和投资组合无差异曲线的形式。     

从“企业价值链”角度浅析施工行业风险管理

风险是经济理性人对某一事件存在不确定性因素主观预期的概率分布。从现代财务管理理论观点看,企业目标是实现企业价值最大化。从财务管理理论角度研究企业目标实现,综合地体现在企业价值最大化,这为研究企业风险管理提供了新思路。从＂企业价值链＂角度对施工行业风险管理进行探究,目的是从理论上寻求风险管理对策,以实现施工企业价值最大化目标。     

基于金融衍生工具组合的财务风险管理

本文将金融衍生工具套期保值这一行为作为一种投资行为。在分析各种金融衍生工具单独使用进行套期保值时带来的操作性非系统风险的基础上,借鉴投资组合的基本理论,使用组合的金融衍生工具套期保值,从而既可以达到单独使用金融衍生工具控制财务风险的目的,又可以在一定程度上降低由于金融市场自身极强的波动性带来的风险,具有一定的现实意义。