电能质量分析仪示值误差的测量不确定度评定

电能质量分析仪是采用虚拟仪器技术和软测量技术的设计思想而研制的,既可以作为发电企业对厂内电能质量检测的重要设备,也可作为供电部门对配电网用户进行电能质量检测的重要设备,以监测配电网用户对电网电能造成的污染情况。因此,它的应用领域十分广阔。文章对电能质量分析仪的测量结果的不确定度分析过程进行了介绍。     

Semiparametric Estimation for Non-Ruin Probabilities

We consider the classical risk model with unknown claim size distribution F and unknown Poisson arrival rate u . Given a sample of claims from F and a sample of interarrival times for these claims, we construct an estimator for the function Z ( u ), which gives the probability of non-ruin in that model for initial surplus u . We obtain strong consistency and asymptotic normality for that estimator for a large class of claim distributions F . Confidence bounds for Z ( u ) based on the bootstrap are also given and illustrated by some numerical examples.     

企业视角下人才流动动因研究

当前从企业角度分析人才流动动因的研究较少，且样本异质性不足。使用Price-Mueller雇员离职模型原理构建人才流动影响因素，在增强样本异质性条件下，采用有序和多分类离散Logistic计量分析模型，从企业视角定量研究其不同性质、结构形式、行业、规模、发展阶段的人才流动性风险概率和动因。结果显示：民营/私营企业、信息产业技能型人才流动风险较大，人才流动具有主营收入和人员的规模效应；各分类条件下流动影响动因差异显著，一般人才和技能型人才较多关注薪酬福利和社会保障，科研和管理型人才更注重培训、学习、晋升机会和企业文化、制度等，同时不少人才逐渐将工作和家庭生活质量与环境作为其流动主要动因，人才流动新特征逐渐显现。     

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF SUPPLY CHAIN PERFORMANCE ALONG SEVERAL DIMENSIONS OF RISK

This research operationalizes several supply chain risk sources and investigates their relationships with supply chain performance. The responses of 760 executives from firms operating in Germany reveal that demand side and supply side risks do have a negative impact on performance whereas regulatory, legal and bureaucratic risks, infrastructure risks, as well as catastrophic risks do not. The analysis and results augment previous research regarding the impact of supply chain risks on the operational performance of firms and shareholder value and provide a detailed analysis of supply chain risk sources as contextual variables in strategic decision‐making.     

Do aggressive funds reallocate their portfolios aggressively?

This study examines pairs of asset allocation mutual funds that are controlled for all informational attributes, except for the level of risk aversion. Standard mean‐variance models of portfolio choice suggest that the percentage rebalancing of common stocks in aggressive funds would be the same as that in conservative funds. However, this study finds the rebalancing of common stocks in aggressive funds to be disproportionally less intense.     

中小企业资产证券化问题研究

中小企业是市场经济的重要组成部分,是经济发展的最重要的驱动力量。本文分析了由于我国目前中小企业发展过程中存在融资难的问题而需要资产证券化的必要性,认为可以通过创造良好的外部环境和整合优化中小企业自身内部资源,进行资产证券化。     

The impact of prior performance on the risk-taking of mutual fund managers

We analyze the impact of prior performance on the risk-taking behavior of mutual fund managers. We contribute to the existing literature by using different measures of risks, a larger data set, and an econometric approach capturing non-linear effects and assigning exact probabilities to the mutual fund managers’ adjustment of behavior. We find that prior performance in the first half of the year has, in general, a positive impact on the choice of the risk level in the second half of the year. Successful fund managers increase the volatility, the beta, and assign a higher proportion of their portfolio to value stocks, small firms, and momentum stocks in comparison to unsuccessful fund managers. Unsuccessful fund manager increase, on average, only the tracking error. We thank an anonymous referee, Bernd Brommundt, Alexander Ising, Stephan Kessler, Axel Kind, Angelika Noll, Jennifer Noll, Ralf Seiz, Stephan Süss, Rico von Wyss, and Andreas Zingg for valuable comments. We acknowledge helpful comments of the participants from the Joint Research Workshop of the University of St. Gallen and the University of Ulm in 2005.     

我国金融机构市场退出的制度安排构想

随着我国金融业国际化进程的逐步推进,我国面临的金融风险也日益加重。本文针对我国关于金融机构退出行为法律规定以及在解决实际问题中存在的问题,按照国际惯例并结合中国实际,分别从市场退出的主持机构和职责、退出程序、实施细则、清偿程序及原则、存款保障机制以及外资金融机构的清偿和解散等角度提出了金融机构市场退出机制的制度安排构想。     

物流第三利润源新解

物流活动的增值性是其利润的源泉所在,对第三利润源的分析有助于在更高层面开掘物流活动的深层价值,发挥物流活动在现代经济大循环中的功能和作用,提高整个经济活动的运行质量。文章以日本的第三利润源为分析的逻辑起点,从物流活动的功能价值角度拓展物流源泉的逻辑外延,为进一步完善物流源泉理论提供具有范式意义的参考。     

Compensating Wage Differentials for Schooling Risk in Denmark*

In this paper we analyse the association between wage differentials and risk using detailed information on length and type of education as seen in Danish administrative registers. Our contribution to the literature is that we distinguish between transitory (time‐series) and permanent (cross‐sectional) income shocks, and estimate the compensation for both sorts of risk. We find that wage risk in a given education cell is associated with higher wages, while skewness is associated with lower wages. As a robustness check, we see that ad hoc risk measures based on earnings‐mobility indicators confirm these findings.